Economy

Central bank surprises see June become bumper 2023 rate hike month

Published

1 year ago

July 4, 2023

Central bank surprises see June become bumper 2023 rate hike month

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo

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By Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON (Reuters) – The world’s major central banks delivered in June the biggest number of monthly interest rate hikes year-to-date, surprising markets and flagging more tightening ahead as policy makers grapple to get the upper hand in their battle against inflation.

Seven of the nine central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that met in June hiked rates, while two opted for no change, Reuters data showed.

Both Norway and the Bank of England surprised markets last month with a larger-than-expected 50 basis points move, while Canada and Australia resumed their rate hiking cycles. Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank also tightened policy, taking the total monthly tally of hikes to 225 basis points last month. May had seen six rate hikes across six meetings.

“While some central banks are seeing initial progress toward lower inflation, central bankers overall continue to face a tough balancing act,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at PIMCO.

“Without fiscal policy ready to save the day, we see a more uncertain growth environment with downside risks building over the cyclical horizon.”

The latest G10 moves bring the total 2023 rate hike tally among G10 central banks to 950 bps across 28 hikes. Looking at moves since Norway kicked off the rate hiking cycle in September 2021, major central banks have hiked interest rates so far by 3,765 bps.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pause at its June meeting did not come as a surprise, the hawkish outlook from the world’s top central bank sent tremors through markets.

“We believe central banks have more work to do,” said Vanguard analysts in their mid-year outlook. “The last leg of inflation reduction to central bank targets may be the most challenging, in our view.”

Across emerging markets there was more evidence that the tightening cycle was running out of steam.

Thirteen out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings last month. However, 11 central banks opted to keep policy unchanged.

Having been a stark outlier in the emerging market tightening cycle that kicked off in spring 2021, Turkey’s central bank under new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan played catch up with a 650 bps rate hike, signalling a return to more orthodox policy making. This was the second biggest rate hike in recent times since Russia was forced to deliver an emergency 1,050 bps rate hike following its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, China’s central bank eased interest rates by 10 bps.

The total rate hike tally for the year across emerging markets is 1,375 bps through 22 hikes – less than a fifth of the 7,425 bps of tightening delivered in 2022. The total amount of cuts is 60 bps across two moves.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

12 months ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

12 months ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

12 months ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.