Economy
ECB’s Lagarde warns against premature inflation celebration
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addresses the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium March 20, 2023. REUTERS/Johanna Geron//File Photo
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank has time now to assess how inflation unfolds after a record string of rate hikes but victory has not yet been won and bets based on short term data flow are premature, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday.
Inflation has dropped more than expected in the past several months, fuelling markets’ expectations that the ECB’s next move is set to be a rate cut and could come as soon as April, despite guidance from several policymakers about a more drawn out timeline.
“This is not the time to start declaring victory,” Lagarde said in a speech in Berlin. “We need to remain focused on bringing inflation back to our target, and not rush to premature conclusions based on short-term developments.”
Markets now expect the ECB’s next move to be a rate cut in either April or June and see more than 90 basis points of easing before the end of 2024.
Lagarde earlier said interest rates could steady for the “next couple of quarters” while French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said it could be a “few quarters.”
“We will need to remain attentive to the risks of persistent inflation,” Lagarde said at an event with German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, adding that price growth could actually accelerate in the coming months.
A key risk for inflation is rapid wage nominal wage growth, even if the ECB so far only sees a “catch up” process after workers lost real incomes to the inflation surge.
The bank will now watch whether firms absorb wage increases via lower profit margins, whether labour market tightness eases and if expectations for longer-term inflation remain anchored around the ECB’s 2% target.
“We will need to remain attentive until we have firm evidence that the conditions are in place for inflation to return sustainably to our goal,” she said.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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