Economy
Fed, ECB may slash bank reserves by 90% in new era of high rates
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may mop up as much as 90% of the money they pumped into banks over the last decade now that high inflation and interest rates make that extra liquidity unnecessary, a paper by a Fed economist showed on Thursday.
The world’s two largest central banks have been raising interest rates at a brisk pace to fight inflation and unwinding some of their massive bond purchases, which flooded banks with cash when price growth was sluggish and borrowing costs already at zero.
The Fed paper, which will be presented to top central bankers next week at the ECB’s annual get-together in Portugal, delves into the question of how much cash the Fed and the ECB should keep in the banking system to satisfy demand for reserves now that monetary stimulus is no longer needed.
Its author, a senior adviser to the Federal Reserve Board, estimates the Fed could reduce total reserves from their current $6 trillion to between $600 billion and $3.3 trillion depending on whether it would accept U.S. government bonds or less coveted assets in return.
U.S. Treasuries and German government bonds command a premium on the market because of their liquidity and safety, meaning banks have less of an incentive to swap them for deposits at the central bank.
Similarly, the ECB could shrink its own provision of liquidity from 4.1 trillion euros ($4.51 trillion) at present to as little as 521 billion euros, if it only accepts German government bonds, or 1.4 trillion euros against other assets.
Neither scenario is entirely plausible in the near term as both the Fed and the ECB have a mix of government bonds and other types of debt on their balance sheet.
The paper narrowly focuses on the supply and demand of reserves and the relative convenience of assets received by the central banks in return.
It does not consider other variables; for example the ECB is beginning to debate whether to change its current framework, in which reserves are ample and borrowing costs for banks pinned at the interest rate that the central bank pays on deposits.
The paper also doesn’t take into account the potential side effects of a large balance sheet, such as inflating the price of some financial assets or weakening the incentive for governments to run a sound fiscal policy.
“I view my estimates as a benchmark from which policymakers can adjust balance sheet size up or down depending on their view of the importance of other factors,” author Annette Vissing-Jorgensen said in her paper.
($1 = 0.9093 euros)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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