Economy

Goolsbee ‘confused’ by market reaction to Fed chief’s rate-cut remarks

Published

1 year ago

December 19, 2023

Goolsbee 'confused' by market reaction to Fed chief's rate-cut remarks

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo

(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve is not precommiting to cutting interest rates soon and swiftly, and the jump in market expectations that it will do so is at odds with how the U.S. central bank functions, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday.

“It’s not what you say or what the (Fed) Chair says, it’s what do they hear and what do they want to hear?” Goolsbee said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC, in reference to the response of financial markets to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week that the time frame for when rate cuts will start was beginning to “come into view.”

“I was confused a bit … was the market just imputing ‘Here’s what we want them to be saying.’ I thought there seemed to be some confusion about how the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) even works. We don’t debate specific policies speculatively about the future,” he said, talking about the rate-setting committee’s method of deliberations.

Bets that the Fed will lower its benchmark overnight interest rate at its March meeting by a quarter of a percentage point soared last week after the U.S. central bank left its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range and officials forecast three-quarters of a percentage point in cuts next year.

Earlier on Monday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who has a vote on policy in 2024 until she retires in June, also pushed back against financial market expectations of how abruptly the central bank will pivot to rate cuts.

That has yet to stop markets from pricing in more cuts than the Fed expects next year, and traders in federal fund futures have maintained their surge in bets for a cut in March. They still see a roughly 75% probability of a cut at that meeting, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool, while bond yields continue to drift lower.

“The next phase is not when to reduce rates, even though that’s where the markets are at. It’s about how long do we need monetary policy to remain restrictive in order to be assured that inflation is on that sustainable and timely path back to 2%,” Mester told the Financial Times in an interview.

“The markets are a little bit ahead. They jumped to the end part, which is ‘We’re going to normalize quickly’, and I don’t see that.” “The markets are a little bit ahead,” she added.

On Friday, two other U.S. central bank officials, the New York Fed’s John Williams and Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, who will both have a vote on the rate-setting committee next year, also tried to temper market expectations that cuts to the Fed’s policy rate will inevitably begin in March.

However, in a separate interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Goolsbee warned that the Fed may soon need to shift its focus to preventing a run-up in unemployment from fighting higher prices as inflation makes progress in returning to the central bank’s 2% target, and he did not rule out a cut as early as the March meeting.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

1 year ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

1 year ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

1 year ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.