Economy
Japan won’t directly mention time frame to balance budget in mid-year policy
Japan will not detail a time frame for balancing the primary budget in its mid-year economic policy for the second consecutive year, showed a draft seen by Reuters, underscoring Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s focus on bolstering the economy.
The plan comes amid speculation that Kishida could call a snap election in coming months to solidify his grip on power within Japan’s ruling party.
“The absence of a target year highlights the fact that the government lacks a sense of crisis over Japan’s fiscal situation,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute.
“Given the government’s struggle to secure funding sources for Kishida’s key policy agenda such as childcare, policymakers may find it even more difficult to stipulate a target year.”
The annual policy, to be adopted by Kishida’s cabinet this month, is widely considered a key gauge of the government’s will to restore fiscal health.
Until 2021, the government pledged to achieve a primary budget surplus – which excludes new bond sales and debt servicing costs – by the end of fiscal 2025, a target analysts see as unlikely.
The time frame was removed last year as Japan ramped up spending to cushion the economic blow of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We will not abandon the flag of fiscal reform and we will aim for the previous fiscal reform target,” showed the draft outline of this year’s policy framework.
“(Supporting the) economy must come before (fixing Japan’s) finances. The current target year must not distort options for macroeconomics policy,” it said, calling for close attention to rising prices and the economic situation at home and overseas.
The framework also called for reviewing progress on comprehensive reform of economy and finances, as fiscal 2024 marks the end of the three-year period of estimated expenditure which provides the assumption for annual budget compilation.
The budget-balancing goal has served as a gauge for the government to finance policy expenditure without relying on new debt.
Japan remains an outlier among advanced nations in weaning their economies off pandemic-related fiscal and monetary support.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on Japan to take a more targeted approach in supporting households hit by the pandemic.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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