Economy
UBS: US dollar growth has not peaked yet

According to analysts at UBS, US dollar growth will continue to rise for some time and has not yet reached its peak. Despite growing hopes that the Fed will abandon a sharp increase in interest rates, because such developments are unlikely, it means that the dollar has room to grow, writes Business Insider. The euro will be affected by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, which will only benefit the dollar.
Is the dollar increasing?
The dollar is up nearly 16% against its major global peers this year because of the Fed’s interest rate hike and weakness in the euro and British pound.
But its index fell slightly earlier this week due to investor hopes that the Fed would make a U-turn in its monetary policy and abandon sharp monetary tightening. Those hopes were fueled by a decline in U.S. jobless claims and lower-than-expected job growth in Australia.
The fact that the number of U.S. jobs is still much higher than the number of unemployed, while the latest benchmark, Personal Consumption Price Index suggests that inflation is still high, argues in favor of the Fed not yet rethinking its policy.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.36 percent to 111.49 on Thursday.
The UBS investment bank team noted other factors contributing to the dollar’s strength: it’s global uncertainty over the continuing conflict in Ukraine, which poses a particular hurdle for the euro.
“We maintain a least favorable rating on the euro,” they added. — Against this backdrop, we continue to see strong dollar strength through the end of the first quarter of next year.”
Going forward, the fate of the dollar will also be determined by the U.S. employment report for September, which is due out today and will give investors an idea of the Fed’s future stance on its monetary policy.
Earlier, we reported that the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in August.
Economy
Fed pivot to interest-rate cuts seen likely to start in May


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo
By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) – A stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market won’t keep the Federal Reserve from pivoting to a series of interest-rate cuts next year, but it could take until May for it to deliver the first reduction, traders bet on Friday.
Employers added 199,000 workers to their payrolls in November, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report showed, more than the 180,000 that economists had expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.7%, from 3.9% in October.
Hourly earnings ticked up 0.4% from a month earlier, more than expected and an acceleration from the prior month. But the labor force participation rate also rose, to 62.8%, easing the prospect that an overheated job market will short-circuit progress on the Fed’s inflation battle.
A separate report Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment improved more than expected in December as households saw inflation pressures easing.
The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates in the current 5.25%-5.50% range when it meets next week, leaving policy on hold since July. Traders before Friday’s jobs report had put about a 60% probability on a March start to Fed rate cuts, but after the data reduced that to just under 50%, with a first reduction seen as more likely to come in May.
Further rate cuts are priced in for the rest of 2024, with the policy rate seen ending the year in the 4%-4.25% range as the Fed adjusts borrowing costs downward not as an antidote to a weaker labor market but rather to keep pace with an expected continued cooling in inflation.
The pace of that improvement in inflation will help determine the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts, analysts said.
“We maintain our call for the Fed to start cutting rates by mid-year, but it is contingent on inflation continuing to trend lower and further weakening in economic activity,” wrote Nationwide economist Kathy Bostjancic after the report.
Fed policymakers will release their own views of where the economy, inflation, and interest rates will go next year when they wrap up their last meeting of the year on Wednesday.
Economy
US consumers’ moods brighten as inflation worries subside – UMich


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A person arranges groceries in El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo
(Reuters) -U.S. consumer sentiment perked up much more than expected in December, snapping four straight months of declines, as households saw inflation pressures easing, a survey showed on Friday.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index shot up to 69.4, the highest since August, from November’s final reading of 61.3.
The median expectation among economists in a Reuters poll had been for the index to edge up to 62.0.
“Consumer sentiment soared 13% in December, erasing all declines from the previous four months, primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation,” survey Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement.
The survey’s preliminary gauge of current conditions rose to 74.0 from last month’s final level of 68.3, while the expectations index climbed to 66.4, the highest since July, from 56.8 in November.
Consumers’ outlook for inflation in the year ahead plunged to 3.1% – the lowest since March 2021 – from November’s final expectation of 4.5%. The 1.4 percentage point decline was the largest monthly drop in one-year inflation expectations in 22 years.
Over a five-year horizon, consumers expect inflation to average a three-month low of 2.8%, down from 3.2% in November, which had been the highest since March 2011, when it reached the same level.
Economy
Russian inflation accelerates in November, rate hike beckons


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People shop at a local market in the town of Rostov in the Yaroslavl Region, Russia April 15, 2023. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Inflation in Russia accelerated in November, data from state statistics service Rosstat showed on Friday, cementing expectations that the central bank will hike interest rates as it meets for the final time this year on Dec. 15.
The central bank has now raised rates by 750 basis points since July, including an unscheduled emergency hike in August, under pressure from a weak rouble, tight labour market and strong consumer demand. Analysts widely expect another hike, to 16%, next week.
High interest rates are one of several irksome economic challenges facing President Vladimir Putin, who on Friday said he would run again for president next year, although none seem insurmountable thanks to Russia’s success in evading a Western oil price cap helping to drive a recovery in economic growth.
In November, annual inflation stood at 7.48% year-on-year, up from 6.69% a month earlier and just shy of analysts’ expectations of a 7.6% reading.
The data suggests that annual inflation will exceed the central bank’s expectation of year-end inflation at the upper end of the 7.0%-7.5% range, which is well above its 4% target.
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.11% in November after a 0.83% increase in October, the data showed, coming just below analyst forecasts of a 1.2% increase. That was the fastest monthly rise since April 2022.
In the week up to Dec. 4, consumer prices rose 0.12%, separate Rosstat data showed.
Russian households regularly cite inflation as a major concern, with many having no savings after a decade of economic crises, while rising prices dragged living standards down across the country.
Rosstat gave the following details:
RUSSIAN CPI Nov 23 Oct 23 Nov 22
Mth/mth pct change +1.11 +0.83 +0.37
– food +1.55 +1.35 +0.40
– non-food +0.53 +0.55 +0.06
– services +1.23 +0.48 +0.76
Y/Y pct change +7.48 +6.69 +11.98
Core CPI y/y pct change +6.36 +5.50 +15.06
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