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UBS: US dollar growth has not peaked yet

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us dollar growth

According to analysts at UBS, US dollar growth will continue to rise for some time and has not yet reached its peak. Despite growing hopes that the Fed will abandon a sharp increase in interest rates, because such developments are unlikely, it means that the dollar has room to grow, writes Business Insider. The euro will be affected by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, which will only benefit the dollar.

Is the dollar increasing? 

The dollar is up nearly 16% against its major global peers this year because of the Fed’s interest rate hike and weakness in the euro and British pound.

But its index fell slightly earlier this week due to investor hopes that the Fed would make a U-turn in its monetary policy and abandon sharp monetary tightening. Those hopes were fueled by a decline in U.S. jobless claims and lower-than-expected job growth in Australia.

The fact that the number of U.S. jobs is still much higher than the number of unemployed, while the latest benchmark, Personal Consumption Price Index suggests that inflation is still high, argues in favor of the Fed not yet rethinking its policy.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.36 percent to 111.49 on Thursday.

The UBS investment bank team noted other factors contributing to the dollar’s strength: it’s global uncertainty over the continuing conflict in Ukraine, which poses a particular hurdle for the euro.

“We maintain a least favorable rating on the euro,” they added. — Against this backdrop, we continue to see strong dollar strength through the end of the first quarter of next year.”

Going forward, the fate of the dollar will also be determined by the U.S. employment report for September, which is due out today and will give investors an idea of the Fed’s future stance on its monetary policy.

Earlier, we reported that the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in August.

Economy

Large US companies by market cap begin to think more about cutting investments and staff – survey

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biggest us companies by market cap

The chief executive officers (CEOs) of the largest US companies by market cap are revising downward their plans for hiring and investment amid a worsening outlook for the US economy, a quarterly Business Roundtable (BRT) survey showed.

That’s because of high inflation and rising costs, said the association, which includes dozens of major U.S. corporations. The S&P 500 and U.S. 100 indices are also declining amid the developments.

The index, which gauges the economic outlook, fell 11 points this quarter, to 73 points. The indicator is still above the 50-point mark, indicating that the economy is growing. However, it fell below the long-term average of 84 points for the first time since the third quarter of 2020.

The index of planned investments fell 7 points to 68 points and expected sales fell 8 points to 91 points, according to the BRT report.

What will the biggest U.S. companies do by market cap?

About 39% of CEOs plan to increase the number of employees at their companies in the next six months, while 28% of respondents intend to downsize. Last quarter, those numbers were 47% and 19%, respectively.

Nearly half (49%) said that labor costs are a major expense at their company. Twenty-one percent of CEOs plan to reduce capex in the next six months and 40% plan to increase it. In the third quarter these proportions were 18% and 43%, respectively.

U.S. CEOs on average forecast that U.S. GDP will increase by 1.2% in 2023. 142 CEOs participated in the BRT survey, which ran from October 31 to November 28.

Earlier, we reported that Saxo Bank presented “shocking predictions” for the next year.

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Saxo Bank predictions 2023: Saxo Bank presents “shocking predictions” for the next year

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Analysis Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank predictions 2023: The Danish Bank has published ten “shocking predictions” for 2023. They concern a series of unlikely and underestimated events because of which, however, “the world markets can be covered with a powerful shock wave”..

Saxo Bank analysis – what’s going to happen next year?

Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, leading U.S. technology companies and “billionaire technophiles” will create a multi-billion dollar project aimed at exploring new opportunities in the energy sector, the bank predicts. According to the bank, this project will be comparable to the “Manhattan Project” to study atomic energy and the creation of the nuclear bomb, and investments in the new project will be about $1 trillion.

Inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability will continue to affect not only the global economy but also the financial markets, says the Danish bank. Against this background, states will take a more conservative policy, reducing investments in more complex financial instruments, and investing in traditional assets such as gold. And traders at the same time are considering Gold Futures.

Increased demand for gold in 2023 will, according to Saxo Bank, cause its price to rise from the current $1,800 to $3,000 per ounce.

Earlier, we reported that Apple has postponed the release date of an unmanned electric car for a year.

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Apple postponed the release date of Apple’s electric car by a year

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Apple's electric car

U.S. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has pushed back the release date of Apple’s unmanned electric car by a year to 2026 and somewhat tempered its ambitions about the extent of its self-driving capability, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

Earlier, Apple announced electric cars. According to the sources, the Titan project has been in limbo for the past few months because top executives at Apple have concluded that their vision of a fully self-driving car with no steering wheel and no pedals can’t be realized with existing technology. The APPLE Price Chart showed a slight decline amid this news. 

In this regard, the company has decided to adjust the project and now plans to create a less autonomous car, with a steering wheel and pedals, with the possibility of fully unmanned driving on highways, sources said.

The driver of the car is expected to be able to do his or her own thing while driving on the highway, such as watching a movie or playing a game, and will receive advance notifications to switch to manual control when approaching city streets or deteriorating weather conditions.

Apple shares fell 2.5 percent in trading Tuesday. Since the beginning of this year, their value has fallen by 19.5%.

We previously reported on World Economic News now through the morning of Dec. 6.

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