Economy
US rate futures lift chances of November hike after overall upbeat data
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The U.S. Federal Reserve Building in Washington, D.C./File Photo
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. interest rate futures on Thursday saw an increased probability of another rate increase by the Federal Reserve in November after news private payrolls surged last month, suggesting a still tight and strong labor market.
The benchmark fed funds futures factored in a 47% chance of a hike in November in late morning trading, compared with about 36% the day before, according to CME’s FedWatch. For next month’s Fed policy meeting, the odds of a 25 basis-point hike were at 95%, compared with 90.5% late on Wednesday.
Private payrolls jumped by 497,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday. Data for May was revised lower to show 267,000 jobs added instead of 278,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing by 228,000.
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report should be crucial and will likely confirm a resilient jobs picture. Economists have forecast new jobs of 225,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May.
Other economic reports on Thursday also suggested a solid economy, even though inflation may be slowing a bit.
The U.S. services sector grew faster than expected in June as new orders picked up, but a measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs fell to a more than a three-year low, suggesting that services inflation would continue to ease.
Prices paid by services businesses for inputs, an inflation measure, fell to 54.1, the lowest since March 2020, from 56.2 in May.
“If job growth and, or inflation continue to come in hotter than expected in the second half of 2023, the Fed could make not just one but two more quarter percentage-point rate hikes before going on hold through the first half of 2024,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica (NYSE:) Bank in Dallas.
U.S. rate cut prospects also have been pushed out to July 2024 when the fed funds target rate is expected at around 5%, according to Refinitiv’s FedWatch. A few weeks ago, the rate futures market expected Fed easing in March next year.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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