Economy

US Treasury yield curve to steepen next year as Fed cuts rates, says BofA

Published

5 months ago

November 30, 2023

US Treasury yield curve to steepen next year as Fed cuts rates, says BofA

By Davide Barbuscia

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which plots the yields of different government bond maturities, will likely steepen in 2024 as the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, a Bank of America analyst said on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields are expected to be at 4.25% by the end of next year, said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at BofA, in a media briefing.

The curve comparing two- and ten-year Treasury yields – widely considered to be a recessionary signal when inverted – is expected to turn positive next year and end the year at +25 basis points, he said.

Despite the expected bond rally, demand concerns will likely continue to impact long-dated securities as the Treasury is expected to ramp up debt issuance.

“We have a lot of concerns about the supply demand backdrop … There’s a lot of duration risk that the market needs to absorb,” said Cabana.

Long-dated Treasury yields, which rise when prices fall, surged earlier this year as investors feared interest rates would remain high for long. Many have also attributed the move to rising concerns over increased government bond supply.

Yields, however, have retrenched this month on expectations that the Federal Reserve has reached a peak in its interest-rate hiking cycle, and as the Treasury announced a more modest year-end schedule of Treasury debt sales.

Ten-year yields, which went above 5% last month for the first time in 16 years, were at around 4.28% on Wednesday.

Fed funds future traders have in recent days increased bets the Fed could start cutting interest rates as soon as March next year, although the consensus remained for a first cut to be delivered in May, according to CME Group (NASDAQ:) data.

“We are increasingly confident that they will be delivering rate cuts next year,” said Cabana, adding that the timing of the first cut remained uncertain.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.