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Washington Post: Recession in Europe will help the U.S. with inflation. Will there be a recession in Europe in 2022?

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will there be a recession in europe 2022

Will there be a recession in Europe in 2022? The Washington Post cited U.S. economists and relevant officials as saying that the United States would benefit from a recession in Europe, which is fraught with the reduction of Russian gas supplies. but will suffer in case Russia refuses to export oil.

The newspaper quoted an unnamed administration official as saying that the Treasury Department and a group of White House economic advisers were predicting “moderate and manageable” consequences for the US of a decline in Europe, trade with which accounts for less than 1% of US GDP.

“If Russia continues to sell oil to the world and only reduces gas exports to Europe, the effect on the U.S. economy is likely to be minimal. In fact, it might even help U.S. firms that produce natural gas. It could also weaken global demand by helping to reduce domestic price pressures,” the publication said.

“If Europe slides into recession, there will obviously be a reduction in demand for a wide range of goods. We’re in such a twisted situation right now that there could be a positive in that,” said economist Dean Baker, referring to the U.S. administration’s attempts to rein in 40-year record inflation.

The worst-case scenario for the U.S. is that Russia will refuse to export oil if Western countries apply price controls. What caused the recession in Europe?

“This will push the economy into recession. Gasoline prices would skyrocket overnight, back to a record five dollars a gallon. The economy can’t digest five dollars a gallon,” the publication quoted Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandiwas saying.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged Sunday the risks of a fuel price spike in the winter, when the European Union will refuse to buy most Russian oil and stop providing services related to transporting it by sea. The US and its allies want to make exceptions to the sanctions for parties that fit within the price limits.

Earlier, we reported that Asia-Pacific stock indices are showing growth.

Economy

Ford Motor brands cut quarterly net profit 9.4 times

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Ford Motor brands

U.S. automaker Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F). cut net income 9.4 times to $1.3 billion, or 32 cents per share, in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from $12.3 billion, or $3.03 per Ford Motor company stock, in the comparable period a year earlier.

Ford Motor brands adjusted earnings rose to 51 cents per Ford Motor company stock from 26 cents per share a year earlier. The figure was below the 62 cents per share expectations of analysts surveyed by FactSet, the company said in a statement.

Revenue, meanwhile, rose 17% to $44 billion. Experts had forecast revenue of $41.4 billion. The company said in a statement that the results fell short of its expectations, due in part to supply chain and manufacturing instability that led to higher costs and lower-than-expected vehicle production.

For all of 2022, Ford recorded a net loss of $2 billion, compared with a profit of $17.9 billion a year earlier.

Ford is forecasting EBIT of $9 billion to $11 billion this year, but warned that factors such as the U.S. and European recession, a stronger U.S. dollar and higher customer acquisition costs could have a negative impact on the figure.

Ford said earlier this week that it will “significantly increase” production of the Mustang Mach-E electric car in 2023. At the same time, the company sees an opportunity for lower prices for these electric cars in the U.S. Ford Motor Company stocks fell 6.4 percent in additional trading in New York on Thursday. The company’s capitalization has risen 23.1 percent to $55.4 billion since the beginning of the year.

Earlier, we reported that the U.S. suspends the issuance of licenses to U.S. companies to export Huawei technology.

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News US sanctions against Huawei: US suspends licenses to US companies to export technology to Huawei

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impact of US sanctions on huawei

US sanctions against Huawei are expanding. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has stopped issuing licenses to U.S. companies to export technology to Huawei, the Financial Times reports.

According to the newspaper’s informed sources, the U.S. Department of Commerce has notified some companies that it will no longer issue licenses to export U.S. technology to Huawei.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s interlocutors reported that the Biden administration is considering a complete ban on the sale of U.S. technology to the Chinese telecommunications equipment giant. The agency notes that some officials in the Biden administration are in favor of banning all sales to Huawei, but a final decision has not yet been made.

According to knowledgeable sources, it is still unclear how soon the administration may pass a ban on all Huawei sales. According to some of them, the timing of the decision could coincide with the four-year anniversary of Huawei’s blacklisting. The impact of US sanctions on Huawei is quite serious. 

The U.S. Department of Commerce under former President Donald Trump blocked Huawei in May 2019 as a threat to national security. U.S. firms were prohibited from doing business with companies on the list without special permits.

Earlier we reported that the German economy shrank by 0.2% in Q4.

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Germany economy analysis: economy shrank by 0.2% in Q4

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Germany economy analysis

German economic analysis shows that German GDP fell by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the previous three months. according to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 1.1%, adjusted for the number of working days.

Analysts polled by Trading Economics on average expected no change in GDP in quarterly terms and growth of 1.3% in annual terms. At the same time, the German economy provided the country with stability, although the DAX index also fell in price due to recent events.

The main factors of the economic downturn were cuts in consumer spending and industrial production in October and December, said the report. Final data on changes in GDP in the fourth quarter will be published by Destatis on Feb. 24.

At the same time, the statistical office said that “due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the situation in Ukraine, the data are subject to more uncertainty than usual. This points to the possibility of a stronger revision of the figures than initially announced.

According to revised data, German GDP rose 0.5% quarter-over-quarter and 1.3% year-over-year in the third quarter, both estimates up 0.1 percentage points.

Earlier, we reported that analysts predicted a decline in Chinese production.

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