Economy
Washington Post: Recession in Europe will help the U.S. with inflation. Will there be a recession in Europe in 2022?
Will there be a recession in Europe in 2022? The Washington Post cited U.S. economists and relevant officials as saying that the United States would benefit from a recession in Europe, which is fraught with the reduction of Russian gas supplies. but will suffer in case Russia refuses to export oil.
The newspaper quoted an unnamed administration official as saying that the Treasury Department and a group of White House economic advisers were predicting “moderate and manageable” consequences for the US of a decline in Europe, trade with which accounts for less than 1% of US GDP.
“If Russia continues to sell oil to the world and only reduces gas exports to Europe, the effect on the U.S. economy is likely to be minimal. In fact, it might even help U.S. firms that produce natural gas. It could also weaken global demand by helping to reduce domestic price pressures,” the publication said.
“If Europe slides into recession, there will obviously be a reduction in demand for a wide range of goods. We’re in such a twisted situation right now that there could be a positive in that,” said economist Dean Baker, referring to the U.S. administration’s attempts to rein in 40-year record inflation.
The worst-case scenario for the U.S. is that Russia will refuse to export oil if Western countries apply price controls. What caused the recession in Europe?
“This will push the economy into recession. Gasoline prices would skyrocket overnight, back to a record five dollars a gallon. The economy can’t digest five dollars a gallon,” the publication quoted Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandiwas saying.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged Sunday the risks of a fuel price spike in the winter, when the European Union will refuse to buy most Russian oil and stop providing services related to transporting it by sea. The US and its allies want to make exceptions to the sanctions for parties that fit within the price limits.
Earlier, we reported that Asia-Pacific stock indices are showing growth.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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