Will the decline in the US economy begin to slow? The economy is falling for the second quarter in a row. What does it mean?
Will the decline in the US economy begin to slow? Compared to the first quarter of 2022, U.S. GDP has fallen by 0.9% year on year, said the country’s Commerce Department. At the same time, the economy was supposed to show growth of 0.3 p. p. This was the second decrease in the year – in the first quarter of 2022; it decreased by 0.3 p p. compared to the previous quarter. The decline in real GDP reflects a decline in private investment in inventories and fixed capital, as well as reduced spending and investment by the federal government.
Decline in the US economy becoming stronger or weaker?
Despite the decline in real GDP, the Commerce Department reported a 7.8% ($465.1 billion) year-over-year increase in GDP at current prices, as well as an increase in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) related to Americans’ domestic and foreign travel.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S. GDP, increased 1% in Q2 after rising 1.8% a quarter earlier. Business fixed investment fell 3.9% and federal government spending declined 1.9%. Exports jumped 18% last quarter, while imports rose only 3.1%.
Economists at Deutsche Bank predicted recessions in the U.S. and Germany on July 15. In their opinion, markets were seriously changed after the data publication on July 13, which showed an acceleration of consumer price growth in the USA. The futures-markets dynamics allow for an almost 100% probability of a recession in the American economy till the end of 2022.
A report from the International Monetary Fund on July 12 stressed that the U.S. will find it “increasingly difficult” to avoid a recession. The Institute worsened its estimates of the economy: the growth forecast for 2022 was decreased from 2.9% to 2.3%; the real GDP growth expectation for 2023 was decreased from 1.7% to 1%.
The Fed is raising the rate at an accelerated pace: at the last meeting – immediately by 0.75 bp to 1.75%, which was the biggest increase since 1994. However, the current prime rate (1.58%) remains very low – far below both the neutral level (2.5%), and the inflation rate (9.1% in annual terms in June). Most analysts expect the Fed to have to raise the rate to at least 3.75-4% at the end of the year.
We should not expect that the very fact of a recession in the U.S. will have a strong negative impact on other developed world economies. The effect will strongly depend on the depth of the crisis. In any case, the severity of the recession will not be comparable to the Great Depression, when for four years there was a rapid drop in GDP.
Earlier we reported on whether Europe is in a recession.
Tell us about Octopus Moving
Octopus Moving is a company that provides removal of property. It was founded in 2005 in New York, USA. The website is https://myoctopusmoving.com. It also has an office in Boston.
Octopus Moving’s main services are:
- Moving: assistance with both intra-city and international moves;
- Storage: the ability to store in their warehouses;
- Everything you need for things to be safely transported to a new place;
- Arrangement of furniture at the new location.
A special feature of Myoctopusmoving is that they use only eco-friendly materials for your belongings. Also, they have their own fleet of trucks available, allowing them to provide a more flexible schedule and lower prices.
Company has positive reviews from their customers and is considered a reliable service.
Why is it better to ask for professional help?
Turning to professionals can be more cost effective than doing everything yourself. Here are a few reasons it may be the best choice:
- Experience and professional skills for safe and efficient transportation. The right equipment and tools are available to provide safety and prevent damage during transportation and storage.
- Saves time and effort: Moving on your own can be very time consuming and time consuming. Company can do it for you, saving you time and effort.
- Property Protection: Guaranteeing the safety and security of your property. They usually offer insurance in case of damage or loss of things.
- Flexibility: The service can provide flexibility according to your needs and will always go out of their way to meet your needs. For example, they can offer temporary storage.
- Money Savings: While hiring may seem more expensive than removal of property on your own, it canbe more cost-effective. A company can provide all the equipment you need and reduce the risk of damage and loss of things, which can save you money in the long run.
In addition, this way you save yourself from unnecessary stress and anxiety.
Is there a guarantee of safety for the goods transported?
All moves will be done safely and professionally. They have experienced and trained workers who know how to handle things properly to prevent damage. Besides, they use special vehicles and packing materials to make sure the safety of things.
Every client receives insurance in case things are damaged or lost in transit. This can be an additional indication of their seriousness regarding safety and responsibility for the safety of their clients’ belongings.
For more specific information, it is recommended that you contact them directly and ask questions when speaking with a company representative.
Investors gravitate toward bear market after Fed decision
The consensus among investors is that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates again before the end of the year and will not loosen its monetary policy until 2024, which is a bearish outlook for the stock market. So it’s important to be prepared for a drop in the S&P 500 and other indices.
That’s the prevailing view of about 350 respondents to the Instant MLIV Pulse survey after Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The findings contrast with the interest rate swap market, which is still struggling to gauge a rate cut this year. More than 70% of MLIV Pulse respondents said the Fed is not done raising rates yet. More than half said they expect the central bank to wait with its policy easing until next year.
The survey results are in line with Fed officials, but go against traders who estimated this year’s rate cut has led to lower Treasury yields.
Swap markets expect the Fed rate to peak at around 4.95% in May and then fall to about 4.2% in December.
Earlier we reported that the U.S. Department of Justice has begun investigating the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Startups under threat worldwide after Silicon Valley Bank collapse
High-tech startups have been hit. Companies around the world are facing a fight for survival after the collapse of a major US investment bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). There was a “huge disruption” in the industry globally, Bloomberg reported, citing market participants. The entire stock market, and the S&P 500 in particular, plummeted.
Startups under threat
The bankruptcy of the lending institution, in particular, affected the co-founder of startup Birdly Inc. Quang Hoang. The entrepreneur invested about $10 million in SVB and is still unable to repay the money four days after the bank was shut down by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation. However, the entrepreneur is far from the only one who has faced similar problems, the article specifies.
“Hoang was one of thousands of founders around the world this week trying to track down their money after days of chaos and who are completely rethinking the way they run their own businesses. Startups from Silicon Valley to London to Tel Aviv to tech hubs across Africa have depended on SVB as a one-stop store for everything from storing their fortunes to personal mortgages,” the story says.
Now investors and technology companies are predicting a complicated financial future for themselves, even if the bankrupt bank begins to attract deposits from customers under a new name. Many market participants faced a “financial payback” for their overreliance on the credit institution’s risky investment assets, the memo said.
On March 11, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation closed Silicon Valley Bank, a large investment bank based in Santa Clara County. All insured deposits from SVB were transferred to Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara. Depositors were expected to have access to their accounts by March 13.
Earlier we reported that the U.S. Department of Justice has begun an investigation into the circumstances of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
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