Forex
Analysis-Euro’s stellar run in doubt as ECB muddies rate outlook
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe
LONDON (Reuters) – Euro bulls are set for an anxious summer ahead as doubts creep in over how far the ostensibly still-hawkish European Central Bank will go with interest rate rises.
The euro has been on a stellar run, up roughly 3.5% against the dollar so far this year to just under $1.11. Measured against the currencies of the euro zone’s main trading partners, it is not far off this month’s record highs.
Investors are strongly positioned for the euro – which languished at two-decade lows against the greenback this time last year – to keep rising.
That view is primarily based on the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its most energetic rate rise cycle in 40 years before the ECB turns dovish.
Under the surface, investors and economists say, even the most hawkish ECB members will be looking for the end of tightening as inflation softens and economic activity weakens.
“I don’t have a high conviction on the euro,” said Gabriele Foa, co-portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, who said he had been bullish on the single currency at the start of 2023 while now maintaining a mild “long bias”.
The ECB, he added, would “keep the inflation-fighting mask on” for a few more months, while at the same time weak data would be “feeding into (ECB) communication and eventually policy”.
On Thursday, the ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis points rate increase to a 23-year high of 3.75% and said inflation remained too high.
ECB President Christine Lagarde responded to most of the questions at a press conference by saying all options remained on the table to “break the back” of inflation, but sent the euro tumbling with a dovish flourish near the end.
“Do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time I wouldn’t say so,” Lagarde said, almost unprompted, stressing that the ECB’s decisions would depend on incoming data.
The euro fell 0.9% against the dollar, with stubborn inflation and a growing risk of a recession pulling policymakers in opposing directions.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday also hiked interest rates but markets suspect that was its last tightening move. In contrast, money markets now price in a 40% chance of another quarter point ECB move in September.
BOUNCE BACK
A hawkish ECB, just as cooling U.S. inflation points to peak Fed rates, helps explain the euro’s recent rally. The currency is up roughly 10% from lows hit last year below the psychologically key $1-mark.
A trade-weighted index, that measures the euro’s value against a basket of other currencies and is followed closely by the ECB, is trading near record highs.
That is partly because of weakness in the yuan, which accounts for over 10% of the basket, and has been hurt by a lacklustre Chinese economy.
Speculators had the biggest net long position in the euro in nine weeks in the week ended July 18, CFTC data showed.
The path ahead was expected to be foggy over the summer as the market awaits new ECB inflation projections in September, fresh data, and assesses the Fed outlook. July euro zone inflation numbers are out next week.
“I’m a little sceptical of markets thinking that they (ECB policymakers) will twist at this point into a more dovish position,” said Francesco Sandrini, head of multi-asset strategies at Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager.
“This is going to happen but only when inflation peaks … we’ll probably embark on a reversal like we are seeing already underway in the U.S., but that’s not a moment yet.”
Sandrini said Amundi expected the euro to rise to $1.15- $1.20 in the coming quarters, implying a further gain of at least 4% from current levels.
Further euro gains were not expected to unsettle policymakers since this would help keep the costs of imports – and overall inflation – down.
“Currency strength is welcome to battle inflation, it’s why the SNB for example does not mind about the franc,” said Societe General currency strategist Kenneth Broux. He was referring to the Swiss National Bank and a Swiss franc up over 7% against the dollar so far in 2023.
But with the jury very much out on whether the ECB will move again in September, the currency could as easily head down as back up, analysts said.
Monex Europe head of FX analysis Simon Harvey reckons, “the data will push back against the idea they can hike again in September”.
Euro zone business showed shrank much more than expected in July as demand in the bloc’s dominant services industry declined, data this week showed.
A euro level of $1.10, Harvey said, seemed fair.
Some were bearish.
Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute for International Finance in Washington, said a war in Ukraine that had left energy prices highly elevated pointed to a big terms of shock trade that should pull the euro back down.
“I don’t think the rally back from parity should have happened,” Brooks said.
Forex
Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities
Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.
In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.
“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.
The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said.
Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.
Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.
“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.
Forex
Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data
Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.
Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar
The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.
This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level.
“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”
The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.
There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.
German economic weakness weighs on euro
In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.
fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.
The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.
Yuan sentiment remains weak
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.
Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.
gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.
The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency.
Forex
Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks
By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn
SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.
Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.
Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.
hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.
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