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Asia FX gains some ground as dollar retreats; China weakness persists

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Asia FX gains some ground as dollar retreats; China weakness persists
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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies advanced slightly on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields pulled further away from recent peaks, although persistent signs of deflation in China kept sentiment subdued.

Markets were now awaiting more cues on U.S. interest rates after largely dialing back expectations for early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following a string of robust economic readings and hawkish comments from Fed officials. 

This trend largely curbed a rally in the dollar, with the greenback pulling back further from a three-month high hit earlier this week. U.S. Treasury yields also retreated from recent highs. 

The and fell 0.1% each in Asian trade, extending sharp overnight declines. for January, due next week, is now in focus for more cues on the path of interest rates.

Most Asian currencies crept higher. The was among the better performers for the day, rising 0.1% and extending gains from earlier this week after the warned that it could still hike interest rates in the face of sticky inflation.

The firmed 0.1%, moving further away from near record-low levels as traders awaited a meeting later in the day. The RBI is widely expected to keep rates on hold, while its forecasts on inflation and economic growth will be in close focus.

The fell 0.1% and remained in sight of a two-month low, amid persistent uncertainty over when the Bank of Japan will begin scaling back its ultra-loose policy. 

The and moved little.

The slid 0.5% after a Bank of Thailand official said that the bank stood ready to cut interest rates if private consumption slowed further in the country.

Any major gains in Asian units were largely held back by concerns over higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, as a chorus of Fed officials warned this week that the bank was not considering any monetary loosening in the near-term.

Signs of persistent economic weakness in China also dented sentiment towards the region, as Asia’s largest economy continued to grapple with disinflation.

Yuan weak as Chinese inflation data underwhelms 

The moved little on Thursday, amid continued support from the People’s Bank of China, which was seen intervening in currency markets earlier this month. But the weakened past the 7.2 level against the dollar, and remained close to a 2-1/2 month low.

Official data showed grew less than expected in January, while contracted for a sixteenth consecutive month.

The also clocked its worst monthly decline since late-2009, indicating that discretionary spending in the country remained largely subdued amid worsening economic conditions.

However, analysts at ING said January’s inflation data marked a bottom for the current deflation cycle, and that inflation was likely to pick up in the coming months. 

Demand was also likely to be supported in February by the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese markets will be closed for a week starting from this Friday. 

 

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Dollar strength likely to continue near term – UBS

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Investing.com – The US dollar has been on a tear since its late-September 2024 lows, and UBS thinks this near-term strength is likely to persist in the first half of the new year, with room to overshoot.

At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% lower, but has gained almost 4% over the course of the last year.

Better incoming US data (nonfarm payrolls and purchasing managers’ index)—and with it, US yields moving higher—have provided broad dollar support, analysts at UBS said, in a note.

Economic news elsewhere has been rather mixed, with growth prospects for Europe staying highly subdued. Accelerating growth in China suggests that there is growth outside the US. But with US tariff risks looming large, stronger activity in China is unlikely to shift investor sentiment and stall the USD rally, in our view.

In the near term, there seem to be limited headwinds holding the USD back, the Swiss bank added.

“US exceptionalism has appeared to reassert itself, with US economic data likely to stay strong in the near term and risks to US inflation moving higher again. The latest growth and inflation dynamics have lifted US growth and inflation expectations, which could allow the Fed to stay on hold in 2025.” 

At least in the short run markets are likely to think this way, while other key central banks are likely to cut rates further. 

The potential for monetary policy divergence is a powerful driver, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates. 

US tariffs are also looming large, weighing on sentiment. The concern on tariffs is that they will have inflationary consequences. Given inflation scarring is still fresh on investors’ minds, it is dominating market narratives.

“That said, we think that a policy rate of 4-4.5% in the US remains restrictive and is a headwind to economic growth and inflation. This is unlikely to change absent hard evidence that productivity is rising in the US, which may happen given developments in AI and associated investment,” the Swiss bank added.

It appears that the market-unfriendly parts of the new Trump agenda (e.g., tariffs, trade tensions, immigration) are easier to implement and more likely to happen before the market-friendly parts (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation). 

“We think a negative impact on US growth is not priced at all in the forex market, which cannot be said for the rest of the world, particularly Europe,” UBS said.

“Hence, we still think that 2025 could be a story of two halves—strength in 1H, and partial or full reversal in 2H. The fact that the USD is trading at multi-decade highs in strongly overvalued territory and that investor positioning (like speculative accounts in the futures market) is elevated underpin this narrative.”

 

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