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Asia FX muted, dollar steady as Fed rate decision looms

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Wednesday, while the dollar remained near three week highs as traders hunkered down in anticipation of more cues on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. 

Reports of more fiscal spending in China did little to improve sentiment towards regional currencies, with the yuan hovering around its weakest levels in 13 months. 

Beyond the Fed, central bank decisions in Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are also due this week, providing more cues on Asian monetary policy going into 2025. 

Most regional currencies were nursing losses against the dollar in recent sessions as traders largely turned to the greenback in anticipation of a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. 

Dollar steady with Fed outlook in focus 

The and both steadied in Asian trade, remaining in sight of a three-week high hit earlier this week. 

The Fed is widely expected to . But traders are bracing for a potentially hawkish outlook from the central bank, especially in light of recent data showing U.S. inflation remained sticky, and the labor market strong.

The central bank is expected to signal a slower pace of easing in 2025, with several analysts, including Goldman Sachs, predicting a hold in January. 

Stronger-than-expected data for November, released on Tuesday, furthered expectations that the Fed will have enough headroom to cut rates at a slower pace.

Expansionary and protectionist policies under incoming President Donald Trump are also expected to underpin inflation and rates in the coming years.

Chinese yuan near 13-mth low; fiscal target offers little support 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% on Wednesday, and was close to its highest level since November 2023. 

Reuters reported that China was planning to increase its budget deficit to 4% from 3% of gross domestic product in 2025, and was also targeting 5% annual GDP growth for a third consecutive year. 

While the move does entail higher fiscal spending, it also heralds pressure on the yuan, given that China will likely further loosen monetary conditions to facilitate its plans for increased stimulus. 

BOJ, Asian central banks awaited 

Focus this week is also on a string of key Asian central bank meetings. Most notably is the , which kicked off a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen was muted, with the pair hovering above 153.5 yen amid uncertainty over what the BOJ will do. Analysts are split between expectations for a hold or a 25 basis point hike. 

The Thai baht’s pair rose 0.2%, with the widely expected to keep rates steady later on Wednesday. The Indonesian rupiah’s pair was also flat, with the country’s set to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday.

The Philippine peso’s pair tread water before a central bank meeting on Thursday, where the is expected to cut rates for a third time this year.

Broader Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.3%, while the Singapore dollar’s rose 0.1%.

The South Korean won’s pair fell 0.2% amid continued reassurances of economic stability from the government, after President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed bid to impose martial law. 

The Indian rupee’s pair steadied after briefly hitting a record high above 85 rupees earlier in the session. The currency was battered by sustained capital outflows from India, while weak also weighed. 

Forex

Dollar edges back from highs; sterling gains ahead of BOE meeting

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Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Thursday, but remained near two-year highs after the Federal Reserve signalled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, while sterling bounced ahead of the latest Bank of England policy meeting.

At 05:05 ET (10:05 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 107.670, after climbing to an over two-year high on Wednesday.

Dollar slips from two-year high

The dollar surged on Wednesday after the slashed its outlook for interest rate cuts in the coming year, after delivering its expected rate cut. 

The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, instead of the 100 bps indicated in the previous forecasts in September. 

“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Markets are fully expecting a hold in January and 11bp are priced in for March. If indeed the dot plot works as a benchmark for rate expectations for the next three months, the bar for a data surprise to seriously threaten the dollar’s big rate advantage is set higher.”

The economic data slate centers around the third-quarter release, which is expected to show that annualized growth fell to 2.8% in the quarter, a drop from 3.0% the previous quarter. 

Sterling bounces ahead of BOE meeting

In Europe, traded 0.7% higher to 1.2662, bouncing from Wednesday’s three-week low ahead of the Bank of England’s policy-setting meeting later in the session.

The is widely expected to hold rates unchanged, continuing its cautious approach to easing monetary policy as inflationary concerns remain.

“The focus will be on any tweaks to forward-looking language and the vote split (which we expect at 8-1 hold-cut). There is no press conference scheduled for this meeting,” ING said.

“Our perception is that the BoE will try to make this announcement a non-event, offering cautious signals for further easing down the road but still highlighting stickiness in services inflation and wages.”

rose 0.6% higher to 1.0415, bouncing after its hefty 1.3% drop in the previous session.

The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.

“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech earlier this week.

Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.

Yen slumps after BOJ kept rates unchanged

In Asia, soared 1.5% to 157.13, jumping over 155 for the first time since late November, after the kept rates steady and flagged a cautious outlook for 2025. 

The BOJ’s decision disappointed some traders holding out for a December hike. The central bank had raised rates twice this year in a historic pivot away from ultra-loose policy.

rose 0.3% to 7.3078, with the pair climbing to its highest level since September 2023. The yuan was pressured by the prospect of looser monetary conditions in China, as the government flagged more stimulus measures to boost growth.

 

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Sterling softens after Bank of England maintains rate; Dollar and Yen outlooks shift

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Investing.com — The sterling trimmed its gains against the dollar and fell against the euro after the Bank of England (BOE) decided to keep its bank rate steady at 4.75%. This move was anticipated, but it’s worth noting that three out of nine policymakers were in favor of a rate cut.

The BOE anticipates a slight rise in inflation in the near term, and economic growth at the end of 2024 could be weaker than earlier projected. Policymakers are faced with the challenge of maintaining price stability without leaving monetary policy too tight.

Following the decision, the rose to 0.8264 from 0.8236, and the fell to 1.2593 from 1.2631.

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, but indicated that it will slow the pace of cuts. U.S. rates are expected to remain at higher levels for longer, leading to a wider policy divergence with other major central banks.

Meanwhile, the yen’s weakness raises the possibility of forex intervention. After a hawkish Fed meeting, has risen well above 155 due to a rate hold from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and an apparent lack of urgency to hike.

Despite the yen being the most undervalued currency in the G-10 space, the prospect of higher U.S. yields and a hesitant BOJ suggests that Japanese authorities may contend with USD/JPY at 160 for the majority of 2025.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Currencies attempt rebound against Fed-driven dollar, yen slides on BOJ

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By Harry Robertson, Rae Wee and Vidya Ranganathan

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar slipped on Thursday, a day after surging to a two-year peak after the Federal Reserve rocked markets by signalling a much slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, while the yen slid after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stood pat on rates.

Currencies around the world tumbled on Wednesday after the Fed decision boosted the dollar, although many rebounded on Thursday in choppy trading conditions with thin volumes ahead of the holiday period.

The BOJ kept interest rates steady as expected, but the yen fell sharply as Governor Kazuo Ueda gave little away in a post-meeting press conference.

The dollar rose 1.4% against the yen to 157.16, its highest since July.

Investors had been looking out for hints of imminent BOJ tightening, particularly after the Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone at its meeting a day earlier.

But the governor reiterated that policymakers would need more time to assess incoming economic data and the implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

“I think the market was anticipating that the furthest they would go today would be a hawkish hold,” Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said.

“But some of the comments Ueda has made could perhaps be interpreted as not being very hawkish. For example that he’s waiting to see data on the momentum of wages in the spring wage talks.”

In the broader market, the fallout from the Fed continued to ripple across markets after traders heavily dialled back on easing expectations next year.

The was last down 0.25% after jumping more than 1% on Wednesday to a peak of 108.25.

The euro, which tumbled 1.34% on Wednesday, managed to claw back some losses and was last 0.5% higher at $1.0403.

Foley at Rabobank said the euro was naturally rebounding and volatility was higher due to low holiday trading volumes.

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75% as expected on Thursday but the pound fell after three policymakers voted for a cut, surprising investors who had expected only one official to opt for a reduction.

Sterling dipped after the announcement and was last up 0.2% at $1.2598 , having climbed as much as 0.7% earlier in the day after shedding 1.1% in the previous session.

The dollar’s rally sent its peers including the Canadian dollar and the South Korean won tumbling, although many currencies found a footing against the greenback on Thursday.

“We think (the) decision marks the start of an extended pause from the FOMC, even if it is a little too early to say this explicitly,” Nick Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe, said.

“An upward adjustment in market expectations should support dollar upside over the coming months.”

The Canadian dollar sank to its lowest in more than four years at 1.4466 per U.S. dollar. The won tumbled to its weakest level in 15 years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, sending global stocks plunging and bond yields spiking.

Policymakers estimated they would be likely to lower borrowing costs by just 50 basis points next year, 50 basis points less than they envisaged in September.

China’s finished the domestic session at 7.2992 per dollar, the weakest close since November 2023.

Australia’s dollar bottomed at $0.6199, a two-year low, but was last up around 0.5%.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The dropped to a two-year low before also ticking up. Data on Thursday showed that New Zealand’s economy sank into recession in the third quarter.

The Swedish and Norwegian crowns both rebounded against the dollar on Thursday, after Sweden cut rates but Norway held them steady.

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