Forex
Asia FX rally stalls on China weakness, dollar steadies before PCE data
© Reuters.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies kept to a tight range on Thursday tracking weak economic signals from China, while the dollar steadied from recent losses as markets awaited a key inflation reading due later in the day.
The strengthened slightly after a stronger midpoint fix from the People’s Bank of China. But purchasing managers index data showed a sustained decline in , as China’s biggest economic engines struggled with worsening overseas demand.
The reading highlighted continued weakness in the Chinese economy, as a post-COVID rebound failed to materialize.
But steady PBOC support, coupled with a less hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve saw the yuan set for a 2.6% gain in November. The currency also remained close to a five-month high against the dollar.
Other Asian units moved little on Thursday as a weeks-long rally in regional currency markets now appeared to be winding down. But most regional units were set for stellar gains in November, as markets grew convinced that the Fed will raise interest rates no further.
The rose 0.1%, taking little support from data that showed grew less than expected in October, while remained muted.
Still, the yen marked a sharp recovery from near 33-year lows in November, and was set to rise 3% in the month, its best monthly gain since November 2022, when the government had intervened in currency markets.
The rose 0.4%, buoyed by data showing a rebound in through October. But Australian remained weak in the third quarter.
The Australian dollar was set to nearly 5% in November, and was trading close to a four-month high.
The fell slightly on Thursday as the held interest rates steady, as widely expected. But weak and data pointed to sustained weakness in the South Korean economy.
Still, the won was on course for a 4.5% jump in November.
The was the sole outlier among Asian currencies in November, and was set for a muted monthly performance after sinking to record lows earlier. The currency was battered by increased domestic demand for dollars, as well as concerns over the Reserve Bank’s dwindling dollar reserves.
Indian for the September quarter were due later in the day, and were expected to show sustained growth in the fastest-growing major economy.
Dollar steadies near 3-½ month lows, PCE inflation data awaited
The and moved little in Asian trade on Thursday, after recovering slightly from their lowest levels since mid-August. But the greenback was still set to lose 3.6% in November- its worst month in a year.
Softening U.S. inflation and signs of a cooling labor market drove steep losses in the dollar through November, amid growing conviction that the . Markets were now seeking signals on when the bank could potentially begin trimming rates in 2024, with some Fed officials suggested that loosening may come earlier if inflation continued to decline.
To that end, focus was now squarely on data- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later in the day. A second reading on U.S. was also on tap later in the day, while for November, as well as a speech by , were due on Friday.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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