Forex
Asia FX weakens with yuan volatile, dollar steady ahead of PCE data
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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Friday with the Chinese yuan logging wild swings amid suspected intervention by the People’s Bank, while the dollar steadied ahead of key inflation data.
Weak risk appetite saw traders remain averse to most regional currencies this week, while the Japanese yen saw extended buying as it benefited from safe haven demand, while an unwinding carry trade also benefited the currency. The yen was by far the best performer among its Asian peers this week.
Commodity-linked currencies, particularly those with exposure to China, saw some relief on Friday, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthening slightly. But the two were nursing steep losses this week.
Dollar steady after strong GDP; inflation, Fed in focus
The and both steadied on Friday after seeing some resilience on stronger-than-expected data for the second quarter.
The reading pushed up hopes that the U.S. economy was headed for a soft landing, where growth will remain steady while inflation eases.
Focus is now squarely on data- which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The reading is due later on Friday and is expected to show inflation eased further in June.
PCE data also comes just days before a , where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. But any signals on interest rate cuts will be closely watched, with markets keeping intact expectations for a September cut.
Chinese yuan logs wild swings after suspected intervention
The Chinese yuan weakened on Friday, pulling back after suspected intervention by the Chinese government saw the currency appreciate sharply against the dollar on Thursday.
The pair had fallen sharply from near eight-month highs on Thursday, with its outsized drop sparking speculation over government intervention. The currency was grappling with increased selling pressure after a series of surprise interest rate cuts by the PBOC this week.
Doubts over a slowing economic recovery also weighed on the yuan.
Japanese yen outperforms, BOJ awaited
The Japanese yen was among the best performers this week, extending a strong run after suspected intervention by Tokyo earlier in July boosted the currency.
The pair was down 2.4% this week- its biggest weekly drop since late-April.
However, the yen’s advance was somewhat stalled by , which showed inflation remained largely muted in July.
The soft inflation reading came just days before a , with analysts split over whether the central bank will have enough headroom to hike interest rates by 10 basis points.
Broader Asian currencies were mostly nursing steep losses against the dollar this week, as risk appetite soured. The Australian dollar’s pair and the New Zealand dollar’s pair were both down nearly 2% this week.
The Indian rupee’s pair steadied after apparent Reserve Bank intervention pulled the pair away from record highs hit on Thursday.
The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.3%, while the Singapore dollar’s pair was flat after the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept monetary policy unchanged.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
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By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
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Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
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