Crude oil prices are in free-fall at the beginning of the week, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate currently trading at $86.63, not far from this month’s low of $86.40. What is the crude oil price forecast for 2022? 

Several factors are affecting oil prices, the main one being the worsening demand outlook. Data from China showed that in July, the country’s crude oil transshipment fell to its lowest level since March 2020, at 53.21 million tons of crude oil. This figure was also 8.8% lower than in the same period last year. Also, disappointing data on retail sales and industrial production in China revived fears of a global recession.

Crude oil price forecast chart – what affects the forecast? 

On the supply side, Saudi Aramco’s CEO said Sunday that they could increase production to a maximum capacity of 12 million barrels per day if the government demanded it. Looking ahead, Iran’s response to the EU’s proposal to reopen the 2015 nuclear deal, which is expected to be announced later in the day, could affect crude oil prices. Should Iran and the U.S. reach an agreement, it could lead to the lifting of sanctions on oil and gas exports from Iran.

The aforementioned August low is WTI’s lowest level since February, which means that a break below it could lead to a sharper drop. The initial bearish target and immediate support level is the $86.10 area, where the black gold has several intraday highs and lows since January of this year. A bearish breakout could lead to a test of the $85.00 level. The sour tone in stocks will likely keep crude oil prices in a downtrend for the rest of the day.

If Wall Street recovers, WTI could also find some demand. Intraday resistance is at the $88.50 and $90.00 levels. Nevertheless, technical indicators suggest that oil prices will be declining in the near term, adding to the negative fundamental picture.

Earlier we reported that the dollar is rising against the euro and the pound.