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Crude oil price forecast 2022: WTI in free fall amid global turmoil



crude oil price forecast 2022

Crude oil prices are in free-fall at the beginning of the week, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate currently trading at $86.63, not far from this month’s low of $86.40. What is the crude oil price forecast for 2022? 

Several factors are affecting oil prices, the main one being the worsening demand outlook. Data from China showed that in July, the country’s crude oil transshipment fell to its lowest level since March 2020, at 53.21 million tons of crude oil. This figure was also 8.8% lower than in the same period last year. Also, disappointing data on retail sales and industrial production in China revived fears of a global recession.

Crude oil price forecast chart – what affects the forecast? 

On the supply side, Saudi Aramco’s CEO said Sunday that they could increase production to a maximum capacity of 12 million barrels per day if the government demanded it. Looking ahead, Iran’s response to the EU’s proposal to reopen the 2015 nuclear deal, which is expected to be announced later in the day, could affect crude oil prices. Should Iran and the U.S. reach an agreement, it could lead to the lifting of sanctions on oil and gas exports from Iran.

The aforementioned August low is WTI’s lowest level since February, which means that a break below it could lead to a sharper drop. The initial bearish target and immediate support level is the $86.10 area, where the black gold has several intraday highs and lows since January of this year. A bearish breakout could lead to a test of the $85.00 level. The sour tone in stocks will likely keep crude oil prices in a downtrend for the rest of the day.

If Wall Street recovers, WTI could also find some demand. Intraday resistance is at the $88.50 and $90.00 levels. Nevertheless, technical indicators suggest that oil prices will be declining in the near term, adding to the negative fundamental picture.

Earlier we reported that the dollar is rising against the euro and the pound


Current gold prices combined above $1,700 an ounce



current gold prices

Current gold prices rose on Tuesday morning; the price was above $1,700 dollars per troy ounce, according to trading data.

The price of December gold futures on the New York Comex Exchange rose by $6.85, or 0.4%, to $1,708.85 per troy ounce. December silver futures rose 1.53% to $20,905 per ounce.

Daily gold prices were supported by a decline in yields on U.S. government bonds. Thus, the yield on ten-year government bonds (U.S. Treasuries) fell to 3.615% from the previous close of 3.651%, while at the beginning of Monday’s trading the indicator exceeded 3.8%.

U.S. Treasuries are an alternative investment to gold, which is why their quotes tend to move in different directions. As a result, gold gained 2.3% on Monday, from $1,670 to $1,710.

Earlier, we reported that oil rises in anticipation of possible OPEC+ production cuts.

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Oil price rises in anticipation of possible OPEC+ production cuts



price of oil rises

The price of oil rose on Tuesday as markets await an agreement from the OPEC+ meeting on a major production cut that will temper the impact of worries about the global economy.

Why is oil rising today?

Oil prices jumped more than $3 on Monday amid reports that OPEC+ will consider production cuts of nearly 1 million bpd at the cartel’s first off-line meeting since 2020 on Wednesday.

Brent crude futures rose 0.54% to $89.34 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.43% to $83.97 a barrel.

Voluntary reductions in oil production by individual OPEC+ member countries will be counted on top of the overall agreed quota cut, which could be the largest reduction since the pandemic began.

“Despite everything going on in Ukraine, OPEC+ has never been stronger, and they will do everything they can to provide price support,” OANDA’s Edward Moya wrote in a research note.

“While OPEC+ may be announcing a production cut of more than 1 million bpd, in reality the cuts could be much smaller. This is due to the fact that most OPEC+ members are already well below target levels,” ING analysts said in a note.

Rising prices may be limited by concerns about the state of the world economy and the desire of investors to lock in profits from the previous session, said Tina Teng of CMC Markets.

Earlier we reported the most important Forex news for October 3.

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Most important forex news: what you need to know on October 3



important news for forex trading

Most important forex news: markets were relatively calm on Monday during Asian trading hours, but volatility increased in the early European morning. Market participants are closely watching the political developments in the UK ahead of S&P Global publishing its final September PMI indices for Germany, Eurozone, the UK, and Canada. 

Important news for forex trading – what should a trader look out for?

Let’s take a look at important news for forex trading. At the end of the day, the US will release the ISM manufacturing PMI for September. Several FOMC policymakers, including Kansas City Fed Governor Esther George and New York Fed Chief John Williams will also make speeches later in the day.

After a modest rise on Friday, the U.S. dollar index turned south and broke below 112.00. U.S. stock index futures are trading mixed in the European session, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is losing more than 1 percent, falling below 3.8 percent.

In Asian trading hours, data from Japan showed that the Tankan Large Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell to 8 in the third quarter, missing market expectations of 11. On the positive side, the non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 14 in the same period from 13. 

Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government keeps a close eye on exchange rate fluctuations. USD/JPY reacted to Suzuki’s comments.

Earlier we reported that American dollar rate declines against the euro and pound, and goes up against the yen.

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