Forex
Dollar around three-month low, set for biggest monthly fall in 2023
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/dollar-around-three-month-low-set-for-biggest-monthly-fallin-2023_6566011d3264c.jpeg)
![Dollar around three-month low, set for biggest monthly fall in 2023](https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/trkd-images/LYNXMPEJAR00Z_L.jpg)
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Brigid Riley and Alun John
TOKYO/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of peers on Tuesday before steadying, as traders continued to unwind long dollar positions before this week’s U.S. and euro zone inflation data.
The , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, was last at 103.17, a whisker above the 103.07 it touched in Asia trade, the lowest since Aug. 31.
The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year.
“Markets have been wanting to get ahead of the next big theme – monetary easing, better conditions for risk assets and a weaker dollar – but as we’ve seen this morning, that’s starting to run out of steam,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.
“Shorter term we’re keeping an eye on the general sentiment in markets – the big trade of this month has been long equities short dollar – and then these psychological levels – the euro has bumping against $1.0960 and each of its runs at that in the past week has been thwarted.”
The euro and sterling were broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0954 and the pound at $1.2628, both around their highest in about three months.
Market expectation that the Fed’s rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to around 50% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world’s largest economy is slowing.
PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including flash inflation data from major euro zone economies, with bloc wide data due Thursday, Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data and an OPEC+ decision.
After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, Reuters reported, citing an OPEC+ source.
The Japanese yen was a touch firmer at 148.45 per dollar, continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month as the dollar weakened.
The Swiss franc was at 0.8810 per dollar, steady on the day, also around its firmest since the start of September, and the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632.
The momentarily hit its highest since Aug. 10 at $0.6114 before sliding back. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 5.50% for the fourth straight time.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/major-russian-lenders-say-yuan-coffers-empty-urge-centralbank-action_66dc6b1523127.jpeg)
By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/bank-of-america-sees-more-downside-for-the-dollar_66dc6b1b4bb7b.jpeg)
Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/dollars-demise-appears-overstated-jpmorgan_66dc6b208bdf2.jpeg)
Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
- Forex2 years ago
Forex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Stock Markets2 years ago
Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China