Forex
Dollar bounces from 15-month low on strong core U.S. retail sales
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.
Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Data for May was also revised higher to show sales gaining 0.5% instead of 0.3% as previously reported.
Core sales showed more resilience, however. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%.
The softer-than-expected headline number suggests that “the Fed is making some progress,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
However, “you still did get a fairly strong control group number – that’s going to feed through to GDP and domestic demand. That’s still very much supportive of the fact that the Fed does need to hike rates again later this month,” Rai said.
The dollar tumbled after consumer and producer price gains slowed in June, boosting expectations that the U.S. central bank will stop hiking rates after a widely expected 25 basis-point increase at its July 25-26 meeting.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in an additional 33 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November.
Other data on Tuesday showed production at U.S. factories unexpectedly fell in June, but rebounded in the second quarter as motor vehicle output accelerated after two straight quarterly declines.
Traders will also be watching inflation releases from regions including the eurozone, Britain and Japan this week for further clues about whether inflation is cooling globally.
The was last up 0.04% on the day at 99.924, after earlier falling to 99.549, the lowest since April 2022.
Bank of America (NYSE:) analysts noted in a report on Tuesday that recent weakness in the greenback has exceeded the drivers of the move, which “can typically be attributed to stretched positioning and sentiment, as well as technical breaks.”
In particular the analysts note that gains in the Norwegian krone and Japanese yen have exceeded their expected moves, and that they expect yen underperformance to resume “once the dust settles.”
The dollar rose 0.10% against the Japanese yen to 138.83, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.
The euro was little changed on the day at $1.1229 after earlier hitting $1.12760, the highest since Feb. 2022.
European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the bank will look closely for signs of inflation cooling down in the coming months to avoid taking rate hikes too far.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
The British pound fell 0.22% to $1.3046, after hitting $1.31440 on Thursday, the highest since April 2022.
The Australian dollar fell 0.07% to $0.6813 after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) July policy meeting released on Tuesday provided no major surprises on the rate outlook.
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Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 99.9240 99.9030 +0.04% -3.446% +100.1000 +99.5490
Euro/Dollar $1.1229 $1.1228 +0.01% +4.80% +$1.1276 +$1.1209
Dollar/Yen 138.8300 138.6950 +0.10% +5.89% +139.1300 +137.6900
Euro/Yen 155.88 155.86 +0.01% +11.10% +156.1400 +154.8800
Dollar/Swiss 0.8574 0.8603 -0.33% -7.27% +0.8607 +0.8556
Sterling/Dollar $1.3046 $1.3074 -0.22% +7.87% +$1.3125 +$1.3029
Dollar/Canadian 1.3174 1.3199 -0.19% -2.77% +1.3243 +1.3168
Aussie/Dollar $0.6813 $0.6817 -0.07% -0.07% +$0.6837 +$0.6789
Euro/Swiss 0.9625 0.9668 -0.44% -2.73% +0.9672 +0.9626
Euro/Sterling 0.8607 0.8589 +0.21% -2.68% +0.8608 +0.8578
NZ $0.6280 $0.6326 -0.72% -1.09% +$0.6344 +$0.6261
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway 10.0470 10.0240 +0.33% +2.48% +10.1150 +10.0400
Euro/Norway 11.2816 11.2868 -0.05% +7.51% +11.3600 +11.2752
Dollar/Sweden 10.2108 10.2468 -0.47% -1.89% +10.2678 +10.1716
Euro/Sweden 11.4590 11.5129 -0.47% +2.78% +11.5434 +11.4469
Forex
Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities
Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.
In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.
“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.
The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said.
Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.
Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.
“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.
Forex
Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data
Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.
Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar
The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.
This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level.
“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”
The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.
There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.
German economic weakness weighs on euro
In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.
fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.
The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.
Yuan sentiment remains weak
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.
Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.
gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.
The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency.
Forex
Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks
By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn
SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.
Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.
Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.
hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.
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