Forex
Dollar calm at end of week; sterling gains on growth data
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar steadied Friday after losing ground the previous session on weak jobs data, while the pound gained in the wake of stronger-than-expected growth numbers.
At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded just higher at 105.115.
Dollar on track for small gains this week
The dollar steadied Friday, and is course for minor gains this week after losses on Thursday following the release of data showed a bigger-than-expected increase in weekly j.
This evidence of a cooling U.S. labor market reinforced some expectations that the will begin cutting interest rates by September.
However, sticky inflation remains a key point of contention for the Fed, with a slew of officials warning as much this week, comments which boosted the dollar this week.
There is “considerable” uncertainty about where U.S. inflation will head in coming months, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Thursday.
“In a scenario where inflation stays … level, just doesn’t make much further progress, then it’s not appropriate to start adjusting the rate unless we see the labor market faltering,” she added.
These comments put upcoming data, due next week, squarely in focus for more cues on interest rates.
Sterling benefits from strong growth data
In Europe, gained 0.1% to 1.2534, recovering from its lowest level since April 24 on Thursday, after data released earlier Friday showed that Britain’s economy grew by the most in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2024.
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U.K. expanded by 0.6% in the three months to March, the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021, as the country’s economy exited the shallow recession it entered in the second half of last year.
On a monthly basis, the grew by 0.4% in March, faster than the 0.1% growth forecast.
The held interest rates at a 16-year high on Thursday, but two of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee voted for a cut, suggesting that the central bank is moving towards such a reduction.
traded largely unchanged at 1.0783, with a light data calendar providing little impetus.
The has all but promised a rate cut on June 6, but uncertainty exists over how many further cuts the central bank will agree to this year.
Pierre Wunsch, Belgium’s central bank governor, made the case for further moves earlier this week, arguing that staying tight for too long was now a bigger risk than easing too early.
Markets currently price in 70 basis points of rate hikes for this year.
USD/JPY drifts higher
In Asia, rose 0.2% to 155.70, trading well above lows of 152 it had hit earlier in May.
Traders now see the 160 level as the new line in the sand for Japanese government intervention.
rose 0.1% to 7.2249, with the yuan weakening following reports saying U.S. President Joe Biden was considering imposing fresh sanctions on certain Chinese industries, such as electric vehicles and batteries.
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While the economic impact of the tariffs was unclear, such measures could attract retaliation from China, further souring ties between the world’s two biggest economies.
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Dollar strength likely to continue near term – UBS
Investing.com – The US dollar has been on a tear since its late-September 2024 lows, and UBS thinks this near-term strength is likely to persist in the first half of the new year, with room to overshoot.
At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% lower, but has gained almost 4% over the course of the last year.
Better incoming US data (nonfarm payrolls and purchasing managers’ index)—and with it, US yields moving higher—have provided broad dollar support, analysts at UBS said, in a note.
Economic news elsewhere has been rather mixed, with growth prospects for Europe staying highly subdued. Accelerating growth in China suggests that there is growth outside the US. But with US tariff risks looming large, stronger activity in China is unlikely to shift investor sentiment and stall the USD rally, in our view.
In the near term, there seem to be limited headwinds holding the USD back, the Swiss bank added.
“US exceptionalism has appeared to reassert itself, with US economic data likely to stay strong in the near term and risks to US inflation moving higher again. The latest growth and inflation dynamics have lifted US growth and inflation expectations, which could allow the Fed to stay on hold in 2025.”
At least in the short run markets are likely to think this way, while other key central banks are likely to cut rates further.
The potential for monetary policy divergence is a powerful driver, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates.
US tariffs are also looming large, weighing on sentiment. The concern on tariffs is that they will have inflationary consequences. Given inflation scarring is still fresh on investors’ minds, it is dominating market narratives.
“That said, we think that a policy rate of 4-4.5% in the US remains restrictive and is a headwind to economic growth and inflation. This is unlikely to change absent hard evidence that productivity is rising in the US, which may happen given developments in AI and associated investment,” the Swiss bank added.
It appears that the market-unfriendly parts of the new Trump agenda (e.g., tariffs, trade tensions, immigration) are easier to implement and more likely to happen before the market-friendly parts (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation).
“We think a negative impact on US growth is not priced at all in the forex market, which cannot be said for the rest of the world, particularly Europe,” UBS said.
“Hence, we still think that 2025 could be a story of two halves—strength in 1H, and partial or full reversal in 2H. The fact that the USD is trading at multi-decade highs in strongly overvalued territory and that investor positioning (like speculative accounts in the futures market) is elevated underpin this narrative.”
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