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Forex

Dollar down on profit taking but upbeat outlook remains

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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar slipped against most major currencies on Friday as traders booked profits after recent gains but the U.S. currency remained well-placed for further advances, supported by strong U.S. economic data that has prompted markets to dial back expectations for interest rate cuts.

Data on Friday showed new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods rebounded more than expected in April and shipments of these goods also increased, suggesting a pickup in business spending on equipment early in the second quarter.

This follows Thursday’s data that showed U.S. business activity in May accelerated to the highest level in just over two years and manufacturers reported surging input prices.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting published this week showed a lively debate among policymakers as to whether current rates were sufficiently restrictive to cool inflation.

The dollar was down 0.3% at 104.72 against a basket of currencies on Friday, after advancing in five of the last six trading sessions. For the week the index was up 0.2%.

The euro was up 0.3% at $1.08495 late on Friday.

“Investors are just now taking the opportunity to reflect back on the week and take some profits … it’s really purely a positioning play,” said Boris Kovacevic, global market strategist at payments company Convera in Vienna.

While stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has led traders to push out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to September, expectations for rate cuts by other central banks have also slipped.

“For as much as expectations of easing from the Federal Reserve have cooled off over the last week, it’s a similar story for central bankers around the world – ECB rate cut changes have also downshifted after lots of official commentary since Monday,” said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in Washington.

Despite Friday’s retreat, the near-term outlook for the dollar was upbeat, analysts said.

“This theme of the U.S. exceptionalism is still playing out,” Convera’s Kovacevic said.

The dollar is up almost 1% this week on the Japanese yen to 156.95 yen, even though Japanese government bond yields have climbed too, scaling decade highs and clearing 1% at the 10-year tenor. [JP/]

Japan’s core inflation slowed for a second straight month in April, meeting market expectations – and staying above the central bank’s target – at 2.2%.

“It’s having very little effect on the yen,” said Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac in Sydney. “The carry of holding dollars is far juicier,” he said, while policymakers’ rhetoric has also made traders nervous about inflation and the risk rate cuts would be distant or small.

The pound rose 0.3% to $1.27365 on Friday.

Data showed wet weather hit UK consumer spending far more than expected in April, but evidence of sticky inflation, and the surprise announcement this week of a July general election kept sterling near two-month highs.

China started a second day of war games around Taiwan. held steady in the offshore market around 7.2627.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.4% at $0.61225, underpinned by a hawkish shift in outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Among cryptocurrencies, ether was about flat at $3,735.90, on Friday, a day after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved applications from Nasdaq, CBOE and NYSE to list exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the price of ether, potentially paving the way for the products to begin trading later this year. For the week, ether is up about 20%.

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Forex

Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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