Forex
Dollar drifts higher; BOE continues raft of central bank meetings this week
The U.S. dollar edged higher in thin holiday-affected trade Monday, as traders digested the impact of last week’s central bank decisions, with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell looming large.
At 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 101.935, just above its recent one-month low, although activity is likely to be limited with the U.S. markets closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Powell to testify before Congress
The U.S. Federal Reserve led the parade of senior central banks meeting last week to discuss monetary policy, and, as expected, paused its year-long rate-hiking cycle to assess its impact on inflation and the country’s economic outlook.
The Fed also hinted at the likelihood of further rate increases ahead, with consumer prices still double its 2% target, but indicated the importance of upcoming economic data backing up these moves.
With this in mind, data on the U.S. housing market as well as initial jobless claims and the current account will be studied carefully this week, as well as Powell’s two-day semi-annual congressional testimony before both Congressional chambers.
Beyond Powell, several other Fed officials are also set to talk this week.
Euro near one-month high, yen weak
Elsewhere, EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0935, close to a one-month peak, while USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 141.52, with the yen bouncing off a near seven-month low versus the dollar, having fallen 1% on Friday.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday and left the door open to more hikes, while the Bank of Japan rounded off the week by remaining the major central bank outlier, keeping its ultra-easy monetary policy.
Bank of England up next
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2824, with the release of the consumer price data on Wednesday likely to be the main driver of sentiment ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting.
The BoE is widely expected to raise its main interest rate to 4.75% from 4.5% on Thursday, with the May CPI number expected to confirm that inflation in the U.K. remains more than four times above the central bank’s 2% medium-term target.
“We still think the rate of inflation is going to come down, but it’s taking a lot longer than expected,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week, after data showed that basic wages in the three months to April were 7.2% higher than a year earlier.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6866, while USD/CNY rose 0.3% to 7.1468, with the yuan retreating as markets priced in a potential cut in the benchmark loan prime rate on Tuesday.
The People’s Bank of China cut two interest rates last week, and is now widely expected to cut its benchmark rate as it attempts to boost its flagging economy.
Forex
Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls; sterling slips again
Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Friday, holding on to recent gains ahead of the release of the highly influential monthly jobs report, while sterling continued to retreat.
At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 109.040, on course for a weekly gain of 0.3%.
This would be its sixth consecutive weekly gain, its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023.
Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls
The dollar traded near its strongest levels since November 2022, holding on to recent gains as the US returned from a holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter.
The focus was squarely on data for December, due later in the session, as traders look for more cues on the US economy and the future path of interest rates.
The of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policy makers remain concerned over the potential for inflation to flare up again, especially given the likely impact of the expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump.
US nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show the economy added 154,000 jobs in December on top of the 227,000 in November, with holding at 4.2%.
Anything stronger would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, boosting the dollar.
“We think the balance of risks is tilted to the upside for the dollar today, as robust jobs figures could prompt markets to price out a March cut and potentially push the first fully-priced move beyond June,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“We would still argue that with inflation concerns back on the rise – although the Fedspeak has been quite heterogeneous on that topic – next Wednesday’s CPI report could have deeper market ramifications.”
Sterling set for hefty weekly loss
In Europe, edged higher to 1.0303, helped by data showing that rose 0.2% on the month in November, an improvement from the prior month’s drop of 0.3% and above the fall of 0.1% expected.
That said, the euro remains weak, with the European Central Bank widely expected to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in 2025, around double the cuts expected by the US central bank, with the regional economy still very weak.
“Markets are pricing a good deal of negatives into the euro at this stage, and perhaps the euro may be penalised less than other G10 currencies should US payrolls come in strong today,” ING added.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2285, with sterling on course to lose 1% this week after earlier falling to a 14-month low following a selloff in UK government bonds amid concern about British finances.
“We expect higher yields to act as an additional headwind to growth via household remortgaging and weaker investment,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, in a note.
“The rise in gilt yields reinforces our view that UK growth will disappoint in 2025, with our 0.9% real GDP growth forecast notably below consensus (1.4%), the BoE (1.5%) and the OBR (2%).”
Yuan lacks support
In Asia, rose 0.3% to 7.3513, with the Chinese currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December, released earlier in the week.
The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China.
dropped 0.1% to 157.85, with the Japanese currency helped by the release of stronger-than-expected data earlier Friday.
This followed on from a bigger-than-expected increase in wage growth on Thursday, and has sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Forex
Asia FX weakens with dollar near 2-year peak ahead of payrolls data
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar sat near its strongest level in over two years as traders braced for a potentially strong nonfarm payrolls reading due later in the day.
Regional sentiment was also undermined by weak inflation data from China, while traders speculated over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, although this provided only fleeting support to the yen.
The dollar moved little in overnight trade on account of a U.S. market holiday. But the greenback remained upbeat following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve earlier this week.
Dollar steady near 2-yr high as nonfarm payrolls loom
The index and both firmed slightly in Asian trade, and were just below their strongest levels since November 2022.
Focus was squarely on data for December, due later on Friday, for more cues on the U.S. economy and interest rates.
The greenback was buoyed by the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, which reiterated the central bank’s warning that rates will fall at a slower pace this year.
The minutes also showed policymakers concerned over expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which could underpin inflation in the long term.
Japanese yen weakens despite strong spending data
The Japanese yen reversed Thursday’s gains and softened on Friday, with the pair rising 0.2% and remaining above the 158 yen level.
Stronger-than-expected data released on Friday sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially as data released on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected increase in .
Analysts expect a virtuous cycle of high wages, steady inflation and improving private consumption to spur more rate hikes by the BOJ in the coming months, potentially as soon as the BOJ’s late-January meeting.
But the yen saw fleeting support on this notion, as it came under pressure from the prospect of higher for longer U.S. interest rates.
Broader Asian currencies weakened on Friday on a similar notion, with traders turning especially averse towards the region before the nonfarm payrolls reading.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.3%, with the currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December. The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and was close to a two-year low, as mixed inflation data released earlier in the week fueled bets on earlier interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.
The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% amid continued political strife in the country, while the Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%.
The Indian rupee’s pair steadied below the 86 rupee level.
Forex
Time to short dollar as latest surge suggest ‘Trump trade’ now priced in
Investing.com — The surged to multi-year highs on Friday, hitting a level that an expert said would mark the pricing in of the ‘Trump Trade,’ leaving little room for further upside and creating an opportunity to turn bearish on the greenback.
The jumped 0.5% to to 109.67, and had earlier hit 109.91 — its highest level since November 2022.
“Start selling the dollar if our DXY 110 target is breached. Slowing global growth and a relatively more hawkish Fed have been priced in. So is a Donald Trump presidency,” Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange/Global Fixed Income Strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.
The firm argues that this level would have fully priced in the “Trump-trade” and would be initiated from significantly overvalued levels.
The call for a weaker dollar comes as the strategist believes that “the bout of strength in US inflation, especially relative to other markets, is in its last innings,” amid expectations for a U.S. slowdown.
While the latest jobs report for December signaled little sign of a slowdown, Ntonifor sees the risk of the U.S. economy slowing due to “tightening financial conditions in the US.”
Looking ahead, Ntonifor suggested that a potential scenario could unfold later this year where “equity markets correct, the US dollar declines, and bond yields fall.”
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