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Forex

Dollar edges higher, buoyed by monetary policy imbalance

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By Laura Matthews

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar edged higher against other major currencies on Friday, hitting a fresh eight-week high against the yen as data showed a strong U.S. economy and as the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to interest-rate cuts stood in contrast to more dovish peers.

U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a rebound in employment while price pressures subsided considerably, suggesting that a recent slowdown in inflation was likely to be sustained.

The , which measures the currency against six others, was up 0.2% at 105.81 in New York afternoon trading. It had spiked 0.41% overnight, erasing declines for the week, following a second successive rate cut at the Swiss National Bank and hints from the Bank of England of a reduction in August.

Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie, in New York sees continued dollar strength as political uncertainty in Europe could eventually sap business and consumer confidence.

“Even if the euro or sterling were to rally, I can’t imagine it being a strong or durable rally,” said Wizman. “I’d be more inclined to sell into that rally and then cover at a lower point.”

For Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX, Grand Rapids, Michigan, the Japanese yen will be important for FX traders to watch next week.

The U.S. Treasury on Thursday added Japan to a list of countries it is monitoring for potential labelling as a currency manipulator, “a diplomatic warning against additional intervention”, said Weller. China is among others on the list.

The yen has been under pressure after the Bank of Japan’s decision last week to hold off on reducing bond-buying stimulus until its July meeting. The dollar last traded 0.4% stronger at 159.59 yen, after hitting a session high of 159.62.

The BOJ, at the behest of Japan’s finance ministry, spent some 9.8 trillion yen ($61.64 billion) to pull the currency out of a 34-year trough of 160.245 per dollar, reached on April 29.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Friday that Tokyo stands ready to take further “resolute” action against “speculative, excessive volatility”.

Meanwhile, the dollar held its near five-week high against sterling, which remains flat at $1.2649, around its lowest since mid-May. The BoE kept rates on hold this week, but some policymakers said the decision not to cut was “finely balanced”.

Data on Friday showed UK retail sales rose by more than expected in May, in large part because of milder weather.

A separate report showed British business growth slowed to a seven-month low in June, weighed down by nerves about the July 4 general election.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A picture illustration shows U.S. 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao/File Photo

The euro was also flat at $1.0697 after a series of preliminary surveys for June showed service-sector activity in France contracted this month, while activity across the German economy slowed.

“Overall it seems like the FX market is hesitating to push for any major moves before the French election in late June/early July, as that remains the biggest focus for European FX in particular,” said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in London.

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Forex

Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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