Forex
Dollar falls, traders price for rate cut by May
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Thursday as investors continued to bet the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting interest rates, even after Chairman Jerome Powell said that a move in March was unlikely.
Powell said on Wednesday that rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, with inflation continuing to fall and an expectation of sustained job and economic growth.
But he declined to declare victory in the bank’s two-year inflation fight, vouch that it had achieved a sought-after “soft landing” for the economy or promise that cuts would come as soon as the March 19-20 meeting.
“The common theme that’s emerging from central bankers is a reluctance to indulge the market’s pricing on rate cuts,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.
The dollar initially bounced on Powell’s comments that a rate cut in March is not the “base case,” but weakened on Thursday ahead of key jobs data on Friday.
Traders are now pricing in a 39% probability of a March rate cut, and a 94% chance of a rate reduction by May, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“Even though Mr Powell is out there saying directly we’re not ready to do this, the markets keep moving their anticipation for the first rate cut to the next meeting,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street in New York.
Traders are expecting an economic slowdown, but they “haven’t gotten it yet”, he added.
Friday’s jobs report for January is expected to show that employers added 180,000 jobs during the month.
Data on Thursday showed that U.S. fourth quarter worker productivity grew faster than expected, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased in the latest week. U.S. manufacturing also stabilized in January amid a rebound in new orders.
The was last down 0.55% at 103.04.
The greenback has also been pulled lower by tumbling Treasury yields on renewed jitters over U.S. regional banks. A sell-off in shares of those banks continued on Thursday, adding to losses from a day earlier when New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:) reported pain in its commercial real estate portfolio.
Those concerns may have also boosted the safe haven Japanese yen. The greenback lost 0.45% against the Japanese currency to last trade at 146.29 yen.
The Bank of England, meanwhile, adopted a slightly more hawkish tone on Thursday, even as it dropped its warning that “further tightening” would be required if more persistent inflation pressure emerged.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that “we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there” before rates can be lowered.
“While the ECB and the Fed are hinting at rate cuts, the Bank of England’s reticence for these discussions continues to make it stand out as an outlier,” said Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger & Co.
Sterling gained 0.46% on the day to $1.27455.
The euro rose 0.5% to $1.08720, after earlier dropping to $1.07800, the lowest since Dec. 13. The single currency has been hurt by expectations that the U.S. economy will hold up better than that of the euro zone.
The other rate decision on Thursday was from Sweden’s Riksbank, which kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.00% as expected. The bank said that if inflation continued to slow it might be able to bring forward the timing of a first rate cut, possibly even to the first half of 2024.
Sweden’s crown was steady against the dollar at 10.39.
Investing.com – The US dollar has gained more ground as the US presidential election draws near, UBS noted, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
A new USD-positive over the past week has been media reports of somewhat better outlook for Donald Trump in the latest polls, as outcomes that allow for policies such as more aggressive tariffs are viewed as more USD positive.
“Higher odds of a Trump presidency are likely to be associated with a stronger USD near term,” said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Oct. 16.
Where does this leave us now with our USD views?
Our expected ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 incorporated the possibility of a material USD rebound between now and year end, even if our year-end forecasts see a modestly lower USD from current levels.
Last week, with an eye to our year end forecast, we entered a long call reverse knockout, but we are not willing to implement a similar trade yet for and .
The spot is still far enough from our range extremes and high JPY implied volatility and negative carry make long JPY positions unattractive so close to US elections.
Turning to this week’s ECB meeting, the market is very confident that another 25bp rate cut will be delivered and we do not have a strong reason to disagree.
Market expectations are very muted for any form of surprise, and risk reversal skews bid again for EUR puts point to a market that is already primed for the risk of EUR softness.
With market pricing in line with our economists’ terminal rate expectations, we see EUR/USD as more exposed to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade recent softness on ECB reasons alone.
At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.
Investing.com – The European Central Bank holds its latest policy-setting meeting later this week, and Citigroup advises selling any rallies in the euro around this key event.
Markets are pricing in around 49 basis points of easing over the remaining two ECB meetings this year, which could limit dovish repricing around Thursday’s event, according to analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 15.
“We see scope for a tactical bounce in EUR around this Thursday’s ECB meeting, which we like fading into November as US election risk premium materializes,” Citi said.
That said, “we like fading any subsequent rallies in EUR as we approach November and US election risk premium gets better priced.”
There is some evidence of this unfolding, the bank added, as EUR looks undervalued on its short-term fair value model and as Citi’s FX Positioning data suggests adding to EUR shorts.
“But our broader FX election basket still screens as undervalued relative to Trump betting markets, and we remain short EURUSD in both spot and options,” says Citi. “We would look to sell any retest of the 1.10 double top neckline — any break above there risks a move towards our adjusted stop of 1.1050, but if that resistance holds, we have higher conviction of a move towards our (and the double top) target of 1.08, with potential overshoot towards 1.07.”
At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), traded largely flat at 1.0892, almost 2% lower over the last month.
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, trading near two-month peaks on expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while sterling slumped after benign inflation data.
At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.180, remaining close to Monday’s two-month peak.
Dollar helped by trimmed rate cut expectations
Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.
Adding to these expectations were comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President on Tuesday, who said he had penciled in just one more interest rate reduction of 25 basis points this year when he updated his projections for last month’s U.S. central bank meeting.
Most market participants see two more cuts this year, totaling 50 bps, and traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
Sterling slumps after inflation release
In Europe, slumped 0.5% to 1.3003, after data showed British inflation fell more than expected in September, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
The UK’s fell to 1.7% on an annual basis, below the forecast 1.9% and the 2.2% recorded a month earlier.
This was the first time it had fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, and added to data seen earlier in the week that showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years.
“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year (November and December),” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“Given the comments by Governor Andrew Bailey earlier this month suggesting the BoE could increase the pace of easing, markets may be tempted to price in some chance of a 50bp rate cut in November.”
traded 0.1% lower to 1.0882, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.
The has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.
“EUR/USD is predominantly driven by external factors. The substantial drop in oil prices has narrowed the scope for a further drop based on market factors, but we continue to suspect that pre-US election positioning should favor a weaker EUR/USD,” said ING.
Yuan nurses weekly losses
fell slightly to 7.1179, with the yuan nursing losses this week as sentiment soured over the country’s plans for more stimulus.
China’s Ministry of Finance said it will enact a slew of fiscal measures to boost growth, but did not specify the timing or size of the planned measures, spurring uncertainty over its effectiveness.
rose 0.2% to 149.43, with the pair climbing closer to the 150 resistance level.
data due later this week is expected to offer more cues on the Bank of Japan’s plans to hike rates further.
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