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Forex

Dollar firm as Fed officials urge patience on rate cuts

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By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar edged up against the euro on Tuesday, as Federal Reserve policymakers said it is prudent for the U.S. central bank to wait several more months to ensure that inflation really is back on a path to the 2% target before commencing interest rate cuts.

Against other currencies, the greenback was mostly flat ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday next week.

“Amid a paucity of economic data catalysts this week, trading ranges have narrowed across currency markets. The dollar remains on a solid footing however, bolstered by a drumbeat of high for long messages from Fed officials,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller told the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, on Tuesday, he would need to see several more months of good inflation data before he would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy.

Waller, however, did put a pin in any speculation that interest rates may need to rise again for demand to soften enough to ease price pressures further, saying the latest inflation data is “reassuring” and the probability of a rate hike is “very low.”

Atlanta Fed Chair Raphael Bostic also spoke on Tuesday and warned against cutting rates too quickly. The Fed, he said, needs to be cautious about approving its first rate cut to be sure it does not touch off pent-up spending among businesses and households, and put the central bank in a position where inflation starts “bouncing around.”

“Fed speakers are driving the market – and they, so far, haven’t said anything traders didn’t expect,” said Helen Given, FX trader, at Monex USA in Washington.

“Barring a surprise from the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes tomorrow afternoon, it’s likely that this could stay a fairly quiet week.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his press briefing after the Fed held rates steady earlier this month, also ruled out rate hikes.

“What that does is it takes out the tail-risk scenario that the Fed is still thinking about hikes because they are effectively questioning their assumption that rates are restrictive enough,” said Vishal Khanduja, co-head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

The euro was 0.05% lower at $1.0852.

Investors will be watching Thursday’s data from the European Central Bank negotiated wage tracker and the euro zone Purchasing Managers’ Index which could provide further clues about the monetary cycle in the euro area.

On Tuesday, the U.S. currency slipped 0.04% against the Japanese yen to 156.20.

This dollar-yen pair has moved in tight ranges in the past couple of trading days after a tumultuous start to May in the wake of suspected rounds of currency interventions by Tokyo to prop up the yen.

Fears of intervention from Japanese authorities have deterred traders from pushing the yen to new lows. The yen dropped to more than 160 per dollar on April 29, its weakest in 34 years.

CRYPTO GAINS

In cryptocurrencies, ether was set for its largest two-day gain in nearly two years and bitcoin approached a record high on speculation about the outcome of applications for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds that would track the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency.

Ether was 6.5% higher at $3,728.70 after earlier hitting $3,838.80, its highest level since mid March. It surged nearly 14% in the previous session – its largest daily percentage gain since November 2022.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A representations of cryptocurrency Ethereum is seen in front of a stock graph and U.S. dollar in this illustration taken, January 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

broke above the $70,000 level and was last trading up 0.25% higher at $69,707. It hit its all-time high at $73,803.25 in March.

(This story has been refiled to fix the spelling of Morgan Stanley official’s last name to Khanduja, not Khanduha, in paragraph 10)

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Forex

Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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