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Dollar gains on hawkish Fed; sterling weakens after BOE meeting

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar rose Friday to new highs with the Federal Reserve sounding more hawkish than its European peers, while sterling continued to retreat.

At 05:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 105.365, not far removed from last week’s one-month top of 105.80.

Dollar supported by relatively hawkish Fed

The U.S. currency has been in demand even with data pointing to a slowing economy. 

The latest numbers on the housing and labor markets were soft, and the upcoming data, due later in the session, are expected to show a slowing in activity.

However, Fed officials continue to call for caution and more data before agreeing to cut interest rates, and the last meeting of the U.S. central bank saw the forecast of rate reductions this year cut to one from three previously.

By contrast, the started cutting interest rates earlier this month, the has reduced rates twice, and the looks poised to start trimming rates in August.

“The surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and a dovish hold by the Bank of England reinforced the notion that central banks in Europe are way ahead of the Federal Reserve with rate cuts, a dollar-positive development,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Sterling weakens as August cut looms 

fell 0.1% to 1.2652, with sterling close to a five-week low in the wake of the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting.

The BoE kept rates on hold, but some policy makers said the decision not to cut was “finely balanced”, raising expectations that policymakers will agree to a cut when they next meet at the start of August.

The pound has been supported to a certain degree Friday by data showing British jumped sharply last month after heavy rain kept shoppers away in April. Sales volumes rose 2.9% in May, up from a revised 1.8% fall in April.

fell 0.1% to 1.0692, after falling around 0.4% during the previous session with weak economic data added to the region’s political worries.

Eurozone business growth slowed sharply this month, with the bloc’s industry showing some signs of weakening while the downturn in took a turn for the worse.

The region’s preliminary , compiled by S&P Global, sank to 50.8 this month from May’s 52.2, confounding expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise to 52.5.

“With dovish signals from the European Central Bank’s major European counterparts (the BoE and SNB) and investors’ nerves still quite jittery on EU fiscal and political developments, the euro is understandably under some pressure in the latter half of this week,” ING added.

Yen falls to eight-week low  

In Asia, traded 0.1% lower to 158.81, with the pair slipping a little after earlier climbing to a fresh eight-week high above 159.

The Japanese currency has remained on the back foot after the Bank of Japan’s decision last week to hold off on reducing bond buying stimulus until its July meeting.

The U.S. Treasury on Thursday added Japan to a list of countries it is monitoring for potential labelling as a currency manipulator, in the wake of the BOJ intervening heavily to support the yen as it sank to a 34-year low.

traded edged higher at 7.2611, with the Chinese yuan remaining under pressure amid doubts about the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

 

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PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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