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Forex

Dollar hits 5-month high while jawboning supports yen

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By Harry Robertson and Kevin Buckland

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar hit its highest in almost five months on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected economic data caused investors to rein in their bets on a June rate cut, boosting the currency.

Fears of intervention by Japanese officials slowed the dollar’s gains against the yen, however, even as long-term U.S. Treasury yields – which the currency pair tends to track – jumped to a two-week top overnight. [US/]

The rose to 105.1 on Tuesday, its highest level since Nov. 14, adding to sharp gains on Monday after U.S. data unexpectedly showed the first expansion in manufacturing since September 2022. It last stood at 104.92, down very slightly.

The euro fell to its lowest since mid-February at the end of the Asian session but was last little changed at $1.0745. Data on Tuesday showed that the euro zone factory downturn deepened again in March.

Sterling ticked up from near its lowest since December to $1.2563 after data showed its manufacturing sector brightened last month.

Monday’s U.S. ISM manufacturing survey data featured a sharp rise in a measure of prices in the sector, adding to investors’ concerns that inflation will be slow to fall back to 2%, delaying the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank was in no hurry to lower borrowing costs after data showed a key measure of inflation rose slightly in February.

“This (dollar) strength is an extension of the move seen late last week when the Federal Reserve’s Christopher Waller delivered a less dovish speech,” said Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING.

Turner said U.S. job openings data could weigh on the dollar later in the day if it shows a fall in vacancies.

“Any reversal in this dollar strength – if it does come – will have to be data-driven,” he said.

YEN FLAT

The Japanese yen was last flat at 151.67 per dollar, after earlier dipping to 151.79. It has traded in a tight range since reaching a 34-year trough of 151.975 on Wednesday, which spurred Japan to step up warnings of intervention.

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that he would not rule out any options to respond to disorderly currency moves.

Japanese authorities intervened in 2022 when the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar.

The yen’s decline has come despite the Bank of Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007 last month, with officials cautious about further tightening amid a fragile exit from decades of deflation.

Officials are “wary of backing themselves into a corner by drawing a line in the sand at 152”, said Nicholas Chia, Asia macro strategist at Standard Chartered (OTC:).

“The rationale of jawboning and intervening in FX markets is mainly to buy time for the JPY in the hopes that USD strength wanes and recedes.”

Elsewhere, fell to a 4-1/2-month low as a strong dollar offset selling of the U.S. currency by state-owned banks. The yuan fell to a low of 7.2364 per dollar on the day, its weakest level since mid-November.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

declined 6.5% to $65,250 following a sudden drop of more than $3,000 in the space of about 15 minutes in the highly volatile cryptocurrency.

The Swiss franc hit its lowest since the start of November at 0.909 to the dollar. It has dropped around 2.5% since the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates on March 21.

Forex

Dollar flat ahead of key inflation release; Middle East tensions ease

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar traded largely unchanged in calm trading Monday, amid a calming of tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation later in the week.

At 05:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded flat at 106.005, retreating from the five-month peak of 106.51 seen last week. 

Dollar stable ahead of key inflation release

The dollar surged to new highs last week after Israel launched a missile attack on Iran, in an escalation of the conflict in the volatile Middle East.

However, tensions appear to have been cooled, with Tehran downplaying Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against Iran, in what appeared to be a move aimed at averting a regional war.

“Sentiment is generally supported across asset classes as the week starts,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “All interested parties appear to have chosen the path of downplaying the size and consequences of Friday’s Israeli strikes in Iran.”

That said, the dollar has also been supported by strong U.S. economic data and persistent inflation, coupled with a slew of hawkish comments from Fed officials, reducing the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting rates any time soon. 

These officials will be keeping quiet this week, ahead of next week’s , but activity is likely to be limited ahead of Friday’s look at the , the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, which economists expect to remain elevated in March.

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Other economic data for the week includes an initial estimate of first quarter , which is expected to have moderated slightly from the previous quarter. Data on and will also be released along with revised figures on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Euro edges up, but ECB set to cut early

In Europe, rose 0.1% to 1.0656, trading near six-month lows with regional economic weakness set to result in the European Central Bank cutting interest rates before the Federal Reserve.

Elevated tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to drive up energy prices and should not affect the European Central Bank’s plans to start cutting interest rates in June, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Sunday.

“Barring surprises, there is no need to wait much longer”, Villeroy told business daily Les Echos in an interview. “At the moment, the conflict is not leading to a marked rise in oil prices. If this were ever the case, we would have to analyse monetary policy for whether this shock is temporary and limited, or whether it is transmitted – beyond commodities – to underlying inflation.”

climbed 0.1% lower to 1.2355, just above its lowest level since mid-November seen on Friday, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain’s inflation slowing as expected. 

“Sterling markets moved on Friday after the Bank of England’s deputy governor, Dave Ramsden, sounded less concerned about price pressures and suggested that there were indications of UK inflation converging to that of the eurozone,” ING said. “Crucially, he added that the Bank will be “responsive” as evidence on inflation accumulates.”

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Yen weak ahead of BOJ meeting

In Asia, traded 0.1% higher at 154.74, remaining well above the 154 level and near 34-year highs, keeping investors on guard over any potential government intervention. 

Focus this week is on a Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday – the central bank’s first meeting after a historic rate hike in March. Any cues on future rate hikes and policy changes will be closely watched.

edged 0.1% higher to 7.2437, after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark on hold, as expected. 

The LPR was kept at record lows, as the PBOC moved to keep monetary policy as loose as possible to buoy economic growth. However, low interest rates are also expected to keep the yuan under pressure. 

The USDCNY pair was close to a five-month high, above the psychologically important 7.2 level. 

 

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UBS raises USDCNY forecast amid geopolitical tensions

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On Monday, UBS revised its forecast for the exchange rate, citing increasing geopolitical tensions and expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Swiss financial services firm now anticipates the USD/CNY rate to reach 7.35 by June, up from the previous target of 7.20. Similarly, the September target has been adjusted to 7.30 from 7.15, the December target to 7.25 from 7.15, and the March 2025 target to 7.20 from 7.15.

UBS suggests that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is showing a greater willingness to allow a weaker yuan, which could contribute to additional short-term pressure on the Chinese currency. The firm’s analysis points to the rising geopolitical tensions as a key factor influencing the yuan’s trajectory.

Despite the potential for a pivot by the Federal Reserve in September, which might typically ease the upward trend of the USD/CNY, UBS believes that the impact could be mitigated. The firm notes that market concerns about US-China trade tensions, especially in the lead-up to the US presidential election in November, could dampen the effects of any policy changes by the Fed.

UBS’s revised targets reflect a cautious outlook on the Chinese yuan, as the global financial market continues to weigh various geopolitical and economic factors. The firm’s adjustment of the USD/CNY targets highlights the complex interplay between central bank policies, international relations, and market sentiment.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Asia FX weak as rate fears keep dollar steady

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Monday, and were nursing steep losses from the past week as concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates kept traders largely biased towards the dollar.

Still, easing fears over a bigger conflict in the Middle East offered regional currencies some relief, as risk appetite improved. 

But most regional units still retained a bulk of their losses from over the past week, as traders steadily priced out expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as soon as June.

Dollar steady, more rate cues awaited this week 

The and both fell slightly in Asian trade on Monday, but remained close to over five-month highs hit earlier in April. 

Waning bets on a June rate cut boosted the dollar, especially after strong U.S. inflation readings and hawkish commentary from top Fed officials. 

Focus this week is on more cues on U.S. monetary policy, specifically from data- which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The reading is due on Friday and is expected to reiterate that U.S. inflation remained sticky in March.

More cues on the U.S. economy are also due this week, with data for April set to offer more insight into business activity.

Chinese yuan steady after PBOC holds loan prime rate 

The Chinese yuan’s pair moved little on Monday after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark on hold, as expected. 

The LPR was kept at record lows, as the PBOC moved to keep monetary policy as loose as possible to buoy economic growth. The central bank is also expected to further trim the rate this year, after a cut to the in February. 

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But low interest rates are also expected to keep the yuan under pressure. The USDCNY pair was close to a five-month high, above the psychologically important 7.2 level. 

Japanese yen flat, BOJ meeting awaited 

The Japanese yen’s pair moved little on Monday, but remained well above the 154 level amid little relief from the dollar.

This kept investors on guard over any potential government intervention, especially as the USDJPY pair tested 34-year highs at 155. 

Focus this week is on a on Friday- the central bank’s first meeting after a historic rate hike in March. Any cues on future rate hikes and policy changes will be closely watched.

Broader Asian currencies moved little as fears of higher-for-longer U.S. rates remained in play. 

The Australian dollar’s pair rose 0.3% after tumbling to a five-month low last week.

The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.5%, while the Singapore dollar’s pair was flat.

The Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1%, but was trading below record highs hit last week.

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