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Dollar hits new one-month high as data weighs on rate cut hopes

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Dollar hits new one-month high as data weighs on rate cut hopes
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The hit a fresh one-month high on Wednesday after U.S. retail sales data signaled economic strength, dimming expectations for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in November, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales gaining 0.4%.

While markets still see the Fed as likely to trim rates in March, expectations for a first cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) are down to 53.2%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, from 65.1% on Tuesday.

“If we look at this morning’s retail sales report, that points to growth on virtually every possible level and across every aggregate within the consumer spending sphere,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

“That points to underlying inflation pressure remaining sticky for longer, and that coincides with the fact that we’re seeing a concerted push from policymakers to anchor market expectations out into the middle of the year for the first cut, and also to warn markets that the cadence of rate cuts is going to be slower than anticipated.”

The dollar index which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was up 0.12% at 103.42, after climbing to 103.69, its highest since Dec. 13.

The greenback jumped 0.67% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day percentage climb since Jan. 3, buoyed in part by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He said that while the U.S. was “within striking distance” of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, the central bank should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it was clear lower inflation would be sustained.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” of economic activity showed the majority of the 12 districts reported little or no change since the prior period, while nearly all noted a cooling labor market. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT).

Also supporting the dollar was data showing China’s economy grew 5.2% in 2023, slightly more than the official target, but it was a far shakier recovery than many expected while its property crisis deepened.

The dollar touched 148.52 against the rate-sensitive Japanese yen, its highest since Nov. 28, and was last up 0.71% at 148.23. The greenback also hit a two-month high of 7.2321 against China’s .

The euro was down 0.01% at $1.0873 against the dollar, a day after falling 0.67% drop, even as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers tried to dispel expectations of looming rate cuts.

Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot told CNBC on Wednesday that investor bets for ECB rate cuts were excessive and possibly self-defeating because they could actually hold back monetary easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg TV in Davos the central bank was on track to get inflation back to its 2% target but victory has not yet been won.

Sterling was last trading at $1.268, up 0.32% on the day, on track for its first gain against the dollar after three sessions of declines, as a rise in British inflation reinforced expectations that the Bank of England would be slower to cut rates than other central banks.

In cryptocurrencies, fell 1.9% to $42,603.

Forex

Dollar bounces after sharp loss; euro retreats on Lagarde comment

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Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Monday, rebounding after the sharp losses at the end of last week on signs of cooling inflationary pressures, while the euro slipped following dovish comments from ECB head Christine Lagarde.

At 05:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% higher to 107.750, after falling sharply from a two-year high on Friday.

Dollar bounces after sharp retreat

The dollar bounced Monday after falling sharply on Friday as the Federal Reserve’s preferred showed moderate monthly rises in prices, with a measure of underlying inflation posting its smallest gain in six months. 

That eased some concerns about how much the may cut in 2025, which had risen following the hawkish US rate outlook after the last Fed policy meeting of the year.

That said, traders are pricing in 38 basis points of rate cuts next year, shy of the two 25 bp rate cuts the Fed projected last week, with the market pushing the first easing of 2025 out to June, with a cut in March priced at around 53%.

Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.

Eurozone “very close” to ECB inflation goal

In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0414, near a two-year low it touched in November, down 5.5% this year, after European Central Bank President said the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.

“We’re getting very close to that stage when we can declare that we have sustainably brought inflation to our medium-term 2%,” Lagarde said in an interview published by the Financial Times on Monday.

Earlier in December, Lagarde had said the central bank would cut interest rates further if inflation continued to ease towards its 2% target, as curbing growth was no longer necessary.

The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.

traded largely flat at 1.2571, after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, adding to the signs of an economic slowdown.

The Office for National Statistics lowered its estimate for the change in output to 0.0% in the July-to-September period from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth.

The ONS also cut its estimate for growth in the second quarter to 0.4% from a previous 0.5%.

policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.

Yuan hits one-year high

In Asia, rose 0.2% to 156.72, after rising as far as 158 last week following dovish signals from the .

The BOJ signaled that it was not considering interest rate hikes in the near-term despite a recent pick-up in inflation, and could raise rates by as late as March 2025.

edged 0.2% higher to 7.3080, hitting a one-year high as traders continued to fret over China’s economic outlook. While Beijing is expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to support the economy, looser monetary conditions are expected to undermine the yuan.

 

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Asia FX muted, dollar slips from 2-yr high on soft inflation data

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved little on Monday, while the dollar steadied from a tumble from over two-year highs after soft U.S. inflation data spurred some hopes that interest rates will still fall in 2025. 

Asian currencies were nursing steep losses against the dollar from last week, although they trimmed some declines on Friday after the soft inflation data. The outlook for regional markets also remains clouded by uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and policy under incoming President Donald Trump. 

Dollar slips from 2-yr high as PCE data misses expectations 

The and both steadied on Monday after clocking sharp losses on Friday.

The greenback slid from an over two-year peak after data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- read softer-than-expected on Friday. 

Still, the reading remained above the Fed’s 2% annual target, keeping uncertainty over interest rates in play.

The Fed had cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, but flagged a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year, citing concerns over sticky inflation and resilience in the labor market. 

The Fed is expected to cut rates twice in 2025, although the path of rates still remains uncertain.

Markets took some relief from the government avoiding a shutdown after lawmakers approved an eleventh-hour spending bill.

Asia FX pressured by rate uncertainty 

Despite clocking some gains on Friday, most Asian currencies were still trading lower for December, as the outlook for interest rates remained uncertain.

The Japanese yen’s pair rose 0.1% to around 156.59 yen, after rising as far as 158 yen last week following dovish signals from the Bank of Japan.

The BOJ signaled that it was not considering interest rate hikes in the near-term despite a recent pick-up in inflation, and could raise rates by as late as March 2025. 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, hitting a one-year high as traders continued to fret over China’s economic outlook. While Beijing is expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to support the economy, looser monetary conditions are expected to undermine the yuan. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair was flat ahead of inflation data due later in the day, while the South Korea’s won’s pair rose 0.3%.

The Australian dollar’s pair rose slightly after sinking to a two-year low last week. 

The Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting a record high of over 85 rupees last week.

 

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Dollar to weaken less than expected next year: UBS

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Investing.com — The dollar recently notched fresh year-to-date highs against its rivals and is likely to remain strong after the Federal Reserve leaned more hawkish at its recent December meeting, analysts from UBS said in a recent note.

“While we still expect the dollar to fall, we now see less weakness in 2025 given these factors and adjust our forecasts slightly,” analysts from UBS said in a recent note.

The less bearish view on the USD comes in the wake of the greenback making fresh year-to-date highs in key exchange rates and the expectations for fewer U.S. rate cuts. 

“The USD has been driven lately by prospects of fewer Fed rate cuts and tariff risks,” the analysts said.

The euro has been particularly affected by dollar strength, but is expected to trade around $1.05 against the greenback in the first half of 2025, the analysts forecast. 

But a significant drop toward parity for the can’t be ruled out, “due to real tariff threats or further divergence in the macro backdrop between the US and Europe,” the analysts added.

Still, any move toward parity should be short-lived, the analysts said, amid expectations for the economic backdrop in Europe to improve in the second half of the year, narrowing the divergence between Europe and U.S. yields. 

“The trajectory back into the middle of the trading range or higher, 1.08 to 1.10, comes with the view that two-year yield differentials will still narrow to some degree and better macro data out of Europe provide some underlying support for EURUSD in 2H25,” the analysts said.

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