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Dollar holds steady as markets eye U.S. inflation test later in the week

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Investing.com — Most European and Asian currencies were treading water on Monday, while the dollar steadied in thin trade, as markets awaited more cues on U.S. interest rates from key inflation data later in the week. 

Market holidays in the U.S. and the U.K. kept trading volumes limited. 

Most regional currencies were nursing some losses from last week after a string of statements from Federal Reserve officials saw traders reassess their timelines for possible interest rate cuts by the central bank later this year.

Dollar steadies, PCE inflation awaited

The , which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, and were mostly unchanged in European trade. The greenback had strengthened in recent sessions, bolstered by traders repricing their expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed. 

Policymakers have raised doubts over the sustainability of a slowdown in price pressures in the U.S., boosting wagers that the Fed may ulitmately choose to leave rates at more than two-decade highs for a longer period of time, according to the .  

Traders are now focusing this week on data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which is due on Friday. 

Euro hovers around flatline as ECB decision looms

The euro did not waver far from the flatline against the dollar on Monday, edging up by around 0.1% to $1.0850 by 04:11 ET (08:11 GMT).

Inflation data from the euro zone is also scheduled to be released later this week, with economists predicting that prices rose at a slightly faster annual rate in May compared to the prior month. The figures could factor in to how the European Central Bank will approach future interest rate policy decisions this year.

Spurred on by data showing inflation in the euro zone nearing the ECB’s 2% target, markets are widely betting that the central bank will slash its key deposit rate by 25 basis points at its next gathering in June. In an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that “barring major surprises, at this point in time there is enough in what we see to remove the top level of restriction.”

Elsewhere, the British pound was unaltered compared to the dollar at $1.2740.  

Japanese yen firms, broader Asia FX muted 

In Asia, the Japanese yen’s pair dipped marginally, with traders positioning for more potential government intervention to support the currency. According to media reports, the government last intervened during a holiday on May 1. The move sparked deep losses in the USDJPY pair, although it has since recouped a bulk of these losses this month. 

data from Tokyo, along with readings on and are also due later this week.

Other Asian currencies were muted. The Australian dollar’s pair inched up, while the Chinese yuan’s pair rose slightly after a stronger-than-expected midpoint fix. Data on Monday showed Chinese grew in April. 

The South Korean won’s pair fell slightly, while the Singapore dollar’s pair moved little.

The Indian rupee’s pair was also broadly unchanged following a sharp drop from record highs over the past two weeks. 

Ambar Warrick contributed to this report.

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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