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Dollar marginally lower; tight ranges ahead of Fed meeting

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Dollar marginally lower; tight ranges ahead of Fed meeting
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar traded in a tight range early in the European session Tuesday ahead of the start of the latest two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting, while the euro weakened 

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 103.340, only marginally removed from the six-week high of 103.82 it touched last week.

Dollar stable as Fed meeting starts

Traders have appeared to be reluctant to push the dollar around ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day , which concludes on Wednesday.

That said, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the U.S. vowing to take “all necessary actions” to defend its troops following a deadly drone attack in Jordan by Iran-backed militants, meant the greenback retained underlying support.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, meaning Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post policy meeting press conference is likely to attract the most attention as traders seek clues as to when the officials will decide to start cutting interest rates.

Traders currently see a 50-50 chance that the Fed cuts interest rates in March, with expectations having drifted substantially from levels in December when the U.S. central bank estimated cuts of around 150 basis points in 2024.

Tuesday’s economic calendar includes data on , which kicks off a week of domestic jobs data, culminating in the January U.S. on Friday. The data will give further indications of the state of the world’s largest economy.

Euro slips lower ahead of eurozone GDP

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower at 1.0824, after data showed that the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter, raising the potential that woes of the region’s largest economy could drag the whole eurozone into recession.

fell 0.3% on the quarter in the final quarter of 2023, an annual drop of 0.2%. Although numbers out of , and were more encouraging, is still expected to contract 0.1% in the fourth quarter, a second consecutive negative quarter.

“As we have seen over recent weeks, investors have sunk their teeth in 2024 easing cycles, and the European Central Bank pushback against aggressive rate cut expectations has not proved effective,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Eurozone data this week will not help that pushback, given what should be a combination of weak activity data and softer inflation figures for January.”

traded 0.3% lower at 1.2675 ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting later this week, with the expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.

Data released earlier Tuesday by market researcher Kantar showed that British grocery price inflation declined at a slower rate in January, with annual grocery price inflation at 6.8% in the four weeks to Jan. 21, down from a re-stated 6.9% in the previous four-week period.

Yuan sentiment still negative

In Asia, fell 0.1% to 147.36, with the yen gaining slightly after Japan’s fell to 2.4% in December from the previous month, government data showed on Tuesday, just under the forecast of 2.5%.

traded marginally lower at 7.1782, although sentiment towards the yuan remains quite pessimistic ahead of Wednesday’s release of official data.

“The Evergrande headlines yesterday serve as a reminder that there are no quick fixes for the property sector and the measures announced by policymakers to support local equity markets, such as restrictions on short-selling, are not proving effective,” ING added.

 

Forex

Dollar steadies as traders eye Federal Rate path following soft U.S. jobs data

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Investing.com — The U.S. dollar steadied on Monday after slumping in the prior week on weaker-than-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data, which led traders to push up the timeline for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

At 04:31 ET (08:31 GMT), the U.S. , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.04% higher at 105.07.

It had fallen last week to a more than three-week low, a decline fueled by wagers that the Fed may now choose to slash rates from more than two-decade highs as soon as September. Markets were previously betting that the central bank would roll out an initial 25-basis point reduction in November.

The soft payrolls data also put upcoming addresses by a string of key Fed officials this week squarely in focus. On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin are both set to speak, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari a day later. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Michelle will make appearances later this week as well.

The euro exchanged hands 0.1% higher at $1.0769. The European Central Bank is widely tipped to roll out its own rate cut in June, although it remains uncertain what will happen with monetary policy after the meeting.

Meanwhile, the British pound traded 0.2% higher at $1.2573. Data last week showed that the U.K.’s key services sector remains in a healthy state, possibly granting the Bank of England more room to delay rate reductions.

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Broader Asian currencies retreated after recently gaining some ground against the dollar. But the prospect of U.S. borrowing costs remaining elevated in the near-term kept most regional currencies trading negative for the year.

The Japanese yen’s pair rose 0.6% on Monday, although trading volumes in the pair were held back by a market holiday in Japan, while the Chinese yuan’s pair fell 0.4%.

The Singapore dollar’s pair advanced 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair edged up 0.1%.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar’s pair climbed 0.3%, coming close to two-month highs as traders positioned for a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday. While the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged, it is also expected to strike a hawkish chord after a stronger-than-expected inflation reading for the first quarter.

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Asia FX dips as dollar steadies from payrolls plunge; yen reverses course

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday as the dollar steadied from a tumble on Friday after weaker-than-expected payrolls data saw markets ramp up bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The Japanese yen was the worst performer in Asia, reversing course after apparent government intervention last week saw the currency rebound from 34-year lows. 

Most regional currencies were also sitting on strong gains from Friday, following the payrolls reading and the corresponding drop in the dollar. But the greenback found its footing on Monday.

Japanese yen reverses some gains, USDJPY rises 

The Japanese yen’s pair rose 0.6% on Monday, although trading volumes in the pair were held back by a market holiday in Japan.

The pair, which is inversely related to strength in the yen, had plummeted from a 34-year high of over 160 yen last week amid signs of repeated government intervention in currency markets.

But given that the underlying factors behind the yen’s weakness- chiefly a large gap between U.S. and local rates- remain in play, bets against the yen persisted. 

The USDJPY pair was now close to breaking above 154, with traders also doubting just how much capacity Tokyo had to keep intervening in markets. 

Australian dollar strong, AUDUSD up before hawkish RBA 

The Australian dollar’s pair rose 0.1% on Monday, coming close to two-month highs as traders positioned for a on Tuesday.

While the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged, it is also expected to strike a hawkish chord after a stronger-than-expected inflation reading for the first quarter.

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Sticky inflation gives the RBA more impetus to keep rates high for longer, with some analysts suggesting the bank could even hike rates further. 

Dollar steadies after payrolls-driven plunge, rate cuts in focus 

The and both rose 0.1% in Asian trade after tumbling 0.8% last week. Losses in the greenback came as data read weaker than expected for April.

The data furthered bets that a cooling labor market will give the Federal Reserve more impetus to begin cutting interest rates. The showed traders ramping up their bets for a 25 basis point cut in September. 

The soft payrolls data also put upcoming addresses by a string of key Fed officials this week squarely in focus. 

Broader Asian currencies retreated after gaining some ground against the dollar last week. But the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining high in the near-term kept most regional currencies trading negative for the year. 

The Chinese yuan’s pair fell 0.4% on Monday in catch-up trade, as onshore yuan trading resumed after a long weekend. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.2%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% and back towards record highs. 

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Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April

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By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar fell to a three-week low against the yen on Friday after data showed U.S. jobs growth slowed more than expected in April and annual wage gains cooled, boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year.

Employers added 175,000 jobs last month, below economists’ expectations for a 243,000 increase. Wages increased 3.9% in the 12 months through April, below expectations for a 4.0% gain after rising 4.1% in March.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, remaining below 4% for the 27th straight month.

“The data’s soft across the board from the Fed’s perspective,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede in Philadelphia.

Fed funds futures traders raised bets that the Fed would cut rates twice this year, with 47 basis points of easing priced in, up from 42 basis points before the data.

“The market at this point is so hoping that the Fed can cut rates this year and did not want one of the hot numbers coming in. Today’s report certainly offers them a cooler read of the labor landscape,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial (NASDAQ:) in Charlotte.

Still, the report itself is unlikely to sway Fed policy unless the trend continues.

“An unemployment rate of 3.9% is not something disastrous. This indicates an economy that is not declining dramatically, but it definitely indicates a looser labor market,” said Pride. “It gives the Fed some hope, but it does not establish the trend for them.”

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The Fed said after its two-day meeting on Wednesday that sticky inflation meant that it would take longer to cut rates.

Inflation should continue to decline even as the U.S. central bank holds its benchmark interest rate at current levels, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday while reiterating her willingness to raise the policy rate if progress peters out or reverses.

The jobs report showed “solid” growth that slowed to a point that could make Fed officials more confident the economy is not overheating, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday.

Other data on Friday showed the U.S. services sector contracted in March, while a measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs jumped, a worrisome sign for the inflation outlook.

The was last down 0.27% at 105.03 after reaching 104.52, the lowest since April 10. The euro gained 0.39% to $1.0766.

The greenback weakened 0.48% to 152.9 Japanese yen, reaching as low as 151.86, the weakest since April 10.

The yen surged in light trading late on Wednesday and on Monday, which traders and analysts attributed to intervention by Japanese authorities.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that authorities may need to smooth any excessive yen moves that hurt households and companies.

The yen is on track for its best weekly percentage gain against the greenback since November 2022, after Japanese authorities also intervened in October 2022 to shore up the currency.

The yen reached a 34-year low of 160.245 on Monday as it suffers from a wide interest rate differential with the dollar.

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In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 5.30% to $61,828.

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