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Forex

Dollar on track for weekly gain; next week’s payrolls looms large

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar held largely steady Friday, on course for a fourth straight week of gains, underpinned by falling expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts as well as heightened political uncertainty.

At 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded marginally lower at 103.880, still on track for a weekly gain of around 0.6%. 

Dollar steadies ahead of payrolls

The dollar has steadied Friday after a slight fall in the previous session on the back of lower U.S. Treasury yields.

However, it has generally been in demand for much of the month as reasonably healthy economic data has seen the market scale back expectations of more hefty rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future.

This relative calm could disappear next week, with a highly consequential U.S. report due next Friday.

However, ahead of this release, the focus may well be on the upcoming US presidential election, as market bets for a possible return of Donald Trump ramp up.

“The polls are clearly telling us the election is too close to call, but markets and betting odds are leaning increasingly in favour of Trump,” said analysts at ING, in a note. 

“This may be due to the experience of the past two elections, where Trump was underestimated by polls, but also by greater hedging demand for a Trump presidency, which is seen as a more impactful macro/market event due to protectionism, tax cuts, strict migration policies and risks to the Fed independence.”

ECB to consider large cut?

In Europe, edged marginally higher to 1.0833, on track for a weekly loss of more than 0.3%.

The rose slightly in October, data showed Friday, but sentiment remains weak after eurozone business activity stalled again this month.  

The has already cut rates three times this year, each time by 25 basis points, but expectations are growing that the central bank will consider a larger reduction at its next meeting.

“Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel was asked on two separate occasions during his stay in Washington whether he would consider a 50bp cut in December, and both times, he refrained from explicitly pushing back,” said ING. “Nagel is one of the most hawkish members of the Governing Council and would have probably answered with a clearer ‘no’ only a month ago.”

traded largely unchanged at 1.2972, heading for a weekly loss of around 0.5%, but has also edged away from a two-month low seen on Wednesday. 

Bank of England Governor speaks on Saturday in Washington, and traders will be looking for any comments on likely future policy after he warned earlier this month that the central bank could become “a bit more activist on rate cuts” if there’s further good news on inflation.

Yen looks to weekend’s election

rose 0.1% to 152.02, steadied near three-month highs, with the pair headed for a 1.6% gain this week – its fourth consecutive week of gains. 

Sentiment towards Japanese markets was largely on edge before the general election on Sunday, where local polls showed an alliance led by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could struggle to reach a majority.

This could lead to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba facing an uphill battle to enact more economic reforms.

edged higher to 7.1209, trading in a tight range with a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, initially slated to take place in late-October, now appearing to be delayed to November.

 

Forex

Asia FX slips as S Korean won slumps on political crisis; yen up on rate hike bets

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies edged lower on Friday with the South Korean won falling amid ongoing political unrest, while the Japanese yen rose on rate hike bets after an inflation reading from Tokyo.

The ticked higher in Asian trade, remaining near a 2-year high it touched last week. The also ticked higher.

Most Asian currencies were set for a weekly fall after sharp losses last week when the Federal Reserve projected fewer rate cuts in 2025. The Fed outlook had provided renewed strength to the dollar and created downward pressure on Asian currencies.

Japanese yen rises on rate hike bets

The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.3% on Friday.

in Japan’s capital grew more than expected in December due to increased price pressures, government data showed on Friday, keeping alive chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Some Bank of Japan policymakers saw conditions aligning for a near-term rate hike, with one predicting action “in the near future,” according to a summary of opinions from December’s meeting. 

Other data on Friday showed that the country’s  fell in November, but contracted at a slower-than-expected pace from the previous month amid subdued foreign demand.

Asia FX under pressure as dollar remains near 2-yr high

The Indian rupee fell further against the U.S. dollar after hitting a record low in the precious session. The pair inched up 0.2% up to 85.713 rupees.

The Chinese yuan’s onshore pair was largely muted on Friday. 

Chinese data showed  fell at a reduced pace in November, offering some relief to the struggling sector, though weak domestic demand continues to hamper recovery efforts.

The Singapore dollar’s  pair rose 0.1%, while the Australian dollar’s  was slightly lower, 

The Philippine peso’s pair fell 0.4%, while the Indonesian rupiah’s pair rose 0.4%

The U.S. dollar has remained strong, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on rates through 2025 and expectations of higher inflation and strong economic performance under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

South Korean won slips amid deepening political unrest

The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7% on Friday, after jumping the same in the previous session. The currency was set to lose nearly 2.5% for the week.

South Korea’s acting president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, faces an impeachment vote on Friday amid a political crisis sparked by the Constitutional Court’s first hearing on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived martial law. 

The push to impeach Han has deepened the crisis, placing the nation’s democracy in uncertain waters and drawing concern from allies.

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Forex

Asia FX edges lower as dollar remains near 2-yr high, Indian rupee hits record low

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies were lower on Thursday as the dollar remained steady near a two-year high, while the Indian rupee fell to an all-time low.

Most markets in the region were closed on Wednesday for Christmas.

The was largely steady, while the ticked lower in Asian trade on Thursday.

Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve projected fewer rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation. 

Indian rupee hits record low, dollar remains near 2-yr high

The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, with the  pair hitting a record peak of 85.497 rupees with a 0.2% fall on Thursday. The pair had breached the 85 rupee mark last week.

The Chinese yuan’s onshore pair edged higher on Thursday. Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

The Singapore dollar’s  pair rose 0.1%, while the Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%.

The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4%, while the Philippine peso’s pair fell more than 1%, bucking the regional trend.

The U.S. dollar has shown notable strength in recent months, supported by a combination of domestic and global factors. 

One key driver has been the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, which, despite earlier rate cuts, has shifted to maintaining higher interest rates for 2025 with projections of only two cuts.

Additionally, expectations of potential tariffs under the incoming Donald Trump administration have led to projections of higher inflation and robust economic performance, further boosting the dollar’s appeal.

With expectations of the dollar remaining strong, the outlook for Asian currencies has become more clouded amid global uncertainties.

Japanese yen muted amid rate hike bets

The Japanese yen’s pair was largely unchanged on Thursday.

Japan’s government is preparing a record $735 billion budget for the fiscal year starting in April, driven by rising social security and debt-servicing expenses, according to a draft obtained by Reuters.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the economy is expected to make progress toward sustainably reaching the central bank’s 2% inflation target next year, hinting that an interest rate hike could be approaching.

The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March and increased its short-term policy rate to 0.25% in July. It has indicated a willingness to raise rates further if wage and price trends align with its forecasts.

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Dollar edges higher as Fed rates view sets direction

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By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar edged higher on Tuesday in thin holiday trading as the expected slower path of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve compared with other global central banks continued to command market direction.

The greenback has jumped more than 7% since the end of September, powered in part by growing expectations the U.S. economy will see accelerated growth under policies from President-elect Donald Trump, while sticky inflation has dampened expectations on how aggressive the Fed will be in reducing interest rates.

Those expectations for the U.S. stand in contrast to growth forecasts and the interest rate views for other global economies and central banks, which have led to expanding interest rate differentials.

The Fed last week projected a more measured path of rate cuts than the market had been anticipating, providing another boost to U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note yield reaching a 7-month high of 4.629% on Tuesday.

“The markets are all having a little bit of a Christmas bonus with the election and they’re expecting positive things,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street in New York.

“Certainly that’s true for the dollar because we’ve seen a pullback in the expectations for further rate cuts, and as we all know, the most important factor for the currency markets is the rate structure between the central banks.”

The , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.14% to 108.24, with the euro down 0.15% at $1.0389. The index is on track for its fifth gain in the past six sessions.

Trading volumes are likely to be thin through next week as the year draws to a close, with the economic calendar very light, and analysts expect rates to be the main driver for the foreign exchange market until the U.S. employment report on Jan. 10.

Sterling weakened 0.06% to $1.2527.

Against the yen, the dollar strengthened 0.1% to 157.34 as the Japanese currency remains near levels that have recently prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in an effort to support it.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo

Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s meeting last week showed policymakers agreed in October to keep raising interest rates if the economy moves in line with their forecast, but some stressed the need for caution on uncertainty over U.S. economic policy.

Trump’s return to the White House has brought about uncertainty over how his expected policies for tariffs, lower taxes and immigration curbs might affect policy.

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