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Dollar picks up steam; yen falls past 149 per dollar

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Dollar picks up steam; yen falls past 149 per dollar
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

By Samuel Indyk and Brigid Riley

LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Thursday but held below a 12-week high reached earlier in the week, as traders digested comments from policymakers in the previous session that suggested rates would remain higher for longer.

On Wednesday, several Federal Reserve speakers gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy in the United States soon, or to move quickly once they do.

“Central banks need to be convinced that, not only will inflation come down, but that it will stay down,” said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho.

The market is pricing in around a 20% chance the Fed will begin to cut rates in March, down significantly from the start of the year, and around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.

The was last up 0.2% at 104.23, having reached 104.60 on Monday, its highest level since November 14, propelled by Friday’s blowout jobs report.

“Now that the dust has settled on non-farms, I think what we are seeing is a recalibration of the rates outlook through to next year which has lifted the dollar into a range that is a level higher,” said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger & Co.

Higher U.S. Treasury yields have boosted the dollar, particularly against lower-yielding currencies, such as the yen.

The yen was last down 0.7% versus the greenback to 149.18, its weakest level since November 27.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank was unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively, even after exiting negative interest rates.

“Given that we see UST yields higher in the near term, we see remaining elevated,” Mizuho’s Asher said.

“Any decline will likely need to wait until closer to the March BoJ meeting. We see April as the more likely timing for a BoJ move and thus a better time to look for USD/JPY to move lower.”

The euro was down 0.1% at $1.0761, holding above its lowest level since Nov. 14 at $1.0722 hit on Tuesday.

Sterling was down 0.2% at $1.2602.

The yuan held steady despite data that showed China’s consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January.

CPI fell 0.8% in January from a year earlier, but rose 0.3% month-on-month, data revealed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% fall year-on-year and a 0.4% gain month-on-month.

“We expect the Chinese authorities to favour maintaining stability in the yuan going into the Lunar New Year holidays, with dollar/onshore yuan likely to remain within the 7.18-7.22 range for now,” said Wei Liang Chang, currency and credit strategist at DBS.

The currency got support as China’s stock market stabilised following the appointment of a new securities regulatory head, buoying sentiment despite the disappointing data.

The offshore Chinese yuan was mostly flat at 7.2169 per dollar, while the stood at 7.1970.

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Dollar strength likely to continue near term – UBS

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Investing.com – The US dollar has been on a tear since its late-September 2024 lows, and UBS thinks this near-term strength is likely to persist in the first half of the new year, with room to overshoot.

At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% lower, but has gained almost 4% over the course of the last year.

Better incoming US data (nonfarm payrolls and purchasing managers’ index)—and with it, US yields moving higher—have provided broad dollar support, analysts at UBS said, in a note.

Economic news elsewhere has been rather mixed, with growth prospects for Europe staying highly subdued. Accelerating growth in China suggests that there is growth outside the US. But with US tariff risks looming large, stronger activity in China is unlikely to shift investor sentiment and stall the USD rally, in our view.

In the near term, there seem to be limited headwinds holding the USD back, the Swiss bank added.

“US exceptionalism has appeared to reassert itself, with US economic data likely to stay strong in the near term and risks to US inflation moving higher again. The latest growth and inflation dynamics have lifted US growth and inflation expectations, which could allow the Fed to stay on hold in 2025.” 

At least in the short run markets are likely to think this way, while other key central banks are likely to cut rates further. 

The potential for monetary policy divergence is a powerful driver, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates. 

US tariffs are also looming large, weighing on sentiment. The concern on tariffs is that they will have inflationary consequences. Given inflation scarring is still fresh on investors’ minds, it is dominating market narratives.

“That said, we think that a policy rate of 4-4.5% in the US remains restrictive and is a headwind to economic growth and inflation. This is unlikely to change absent hard evidence that productivity is rising in the US, which may happen given developments in AI and associated investment,” the Swiss bank added.

It appears that the market-unfriendly parts of the new Trump agenda (e.g., tariffs, trade tensions, immigration) are easier to implement and more likely to happen before the market-friendly parts (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation). 

“We think a negative impact on US growth is not priced at all in the forex market, which cannot be said for the rest of the world, particularly Europe,” UBS said.

“Hence, we still think that 2025 could be a story of two halves—strength in 1H, and partial or full reversal in 2H. The fact that the USD is trading at multi-decade highs in strongly overvalued territory and that investor positioning (like speculative accounts in the futures market) is elevated underpin this narrative.”

 

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