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Dollar reaches one month high as sentiment nervous , pound jumps on inflation data

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Dollar reaches one month high as sentiment nervous , pound jumps on inflation data
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo

By Alun John and Brigid Riley

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar hit a one-month high against a basket of its peers on Wednesday as the safe haven gained on the hit to sentiment from soft Chinese data and global rate setters arguing against imminent cuts, while sterling rose on higher British inflation.

The reached 103.58, its highest since December 13, extending gains after a 0.67% jump on Tuesday. It was last up a fraction on the day at 103.34.

That jump was driven in part by the Federal Reserve’s Christopher Waller saying that while the U.S. is “within striking distance” of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, the Fed should not rush towards cuts in its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained.

Market expectations of a rate cut in March have eased to around a 60% chance versus roughly a 75% view in the prior session, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, and U.S. yields rose. [US/]

Also in the mix was data showing China’s economy grew 5.2% in 2023, slightly more than the official target, but it was a far shakier recovery than many analysts and investors expected.

Some December indicators released along with the GDP data were more grim, suggesting the country’s protracted property crisis is deepening.

That weighed on Asian and European shares, and the broader market mood. [MKTS/GLOB]

“A combination of weakish China data and a pushback by both ECB and Fed officials against early easing is weighing on risk sentiment and supporting the dollar,” said Chris Turner global head of markets at ING.

“It is hard to see that sentiment changing today should US December retail sales come in on the strong side.”

That data is due at 1330 GMT, and will give the latest indication of the health of the U.S. economy.

The dollar traded at its highest since early December against the rate-sensitive Japanese yen, last up 0.3% at 147.64, while the China-exposed Australian dollar hit its lowest since Dec. 12 and was last down 0.3% at $0.6564.

The dollar also hit a new two-month high of 7.2282 on China’s .

The euro was flat at $1.0819, steadying after a 0.7% drop on Tuesday after Waller’s remarks, as comments from European Central Bank policy makers also pushing back on imminent rate cuts in Europe helped put a floor under the euro.

Investor bets for ECB rate cuts are excessive and possibly self defeating because they could actually hold back monetary easing, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot told CNBC on Wednesday.

The pound was the exception in climbing on the dollar, up 0.43% to $1.2690, as a rise in British inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England will be slower to cut rates than other central banks.

The data “supports our view that whilst price growth is set to cool faster than the BoE had anticipated, continued economic resilience will prevent inflation from cooling at a pace that would justify rate cuts in the first half of this year,” said Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst at Monex Europe.

He said this would be supportive of the pound and “is likely to play out most clearly on crosses, particularly against the euro as is visible in the market response to today’s data.”

The euro dropped to a one-month low on the pound and was last down 0.4% at 85.73 pence. The pound was also up 0.8% against the Australian dollar at a four-month high., and up 0.7% on the yen.

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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