Forex
Dollar slips after Biden pulls out, euro rebounds after losses
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower Monday following U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign, with the euro benefiting despite its weak tone after last week’s European Central Bank meeting.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.942, flipping after posting its first weekly gain in three last week.
Dollar retreats amid political uncertainty
The dollar has retreated following the weekend’s news that President Biden will no longer seek reelection, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his potential replacement.
“Investors will now switch their attention to how Kamala Harris fares against Donald Trump in the opinion polls – assuming she is appointed the presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention on 19-22 August,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The dollar had received a boost as the likelihood of a Trump presidency grew following Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month and questions about his age and health.
The main economic data release this week will arrive on Friday, with June’s personal consumption expenditures index set to test market expectations that the Federal Reserve is all but certain to cut interest rates in September.
Economists are expecting the to have climbed 0.1% for the second straight month, which would bring three-month annualized core inflation down to the slowest pace this year, below the Fed’s 2% target.
Euro bounces in wake of ECB decision
rose 0.2% to 1.0893, bouncing after weakness in the wake of the keeping rates steady at its meeting last week.
Analysts flagged that the ECB offered no concerted push back at last week’s policy meeting on the heavy pricing for a cut in September, which remains a strong base case.
“This week’s eurozone business sentiment readings, due Wednesday and Thursday, will help shape the narrative that policy is too restrictive and could prompt a little downside for the euro,” said ING.
Markets are pricing in almost two ECB rate cuts for the rest of the year.
traded 0.1% higher at 1.2931, after topping 1.30 for the first time in a year last week in the wake of the decisive election victory for the Labour Party, ending 14 years of sometimes chaotic Conservative rule.
“Some are no doubt making the case that this is a removal of the Brexit risk premium in sterling, aided by new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s desire to engage more closely with Europe,” said ING.
“While we have some sympathy with that view, we ascribe sterling strength more to sticky UK inflation and the limited pricing of BoE rate cuts this year, plus July’s drop in the dollar on the back of softer US price data.”
Yuan slips after PBOC rate cut
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.2727, close to levels last seen in November.
Weakness in the yuan came after the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut its benchmark to further loosen monetary policy and support the economy.
The cut comes as China struggles with a slowing economic recovery- concerns over which have added to mounting pressure on the yuan.
Recent weakness in the yuan also came amid concerns over a Trump presidency, given that Trump has maintained a negative rhetoric towards Beijing.
fell 0.5% to 156.63, with the yen continuing to see wild swings amid speculation that the Japanese government has intervened in currency markets.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
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By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
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Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
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