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Dollar slips ahead of Fed decision; yen soars after BOJ hike

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the latest Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting, while the Japanese yen soared after the Bank of Japan tightened its monetary policy.  

At 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower to 103.992, moving within a tight range.

Dollar slips ahead of Fed decision

The concludes its two-day policy-setting meeting later Wednesday, and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged when it concludes the following day.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this week, but the dollar is showing signs of weakness as traders expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to pave the way for a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s next meeting.

“Surely, Powell will reiterate a cautious tone on inflation this time, but he has often been the voice of a more dovish faction of the FOMC and the press conference could generate some USD-negative headlines,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

General consensus is for a 25 basis point cut in September, according to CME Fedwatch. 

Sterling slips amid BOE uncertainty

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.2826, ahead of Thursday’s meeting, which is seen as a close call over the bank standing still or cutting interest rates.

UBS expects the BOE to deliver the first 25 basis-point cut tomorrow, saying “the key reason why we expect the MPC to cut rates is the recent data,” in a note dated July 24.

“First, June headline inflation, at 2%, was exactly in line with the Bank’s May projections, despite upside surprises in April and May. Second, the overshoot in services inflation (5.7% in June vs the BoE’s estimate of 5.1%) was largely caused by volatile and regulated components, which should not have an impact on the medium-term inflation outlook – an assessment shared by several MPC members, according to the June minutes.”

“Third, the July labor market report showed more pronounced signs of a slowdown in wage growth with private sector regular pay easing 0.3pp to 5.6% y/y in May, broadly in line with the BoE’s May forecast.”

rose 0.1% to 1.0823, in the wake of data showing the eurozone’s grew 0.3% in the three months to June, slightly more than expected.

Additionally, eurozone rose 2.6% in July on an annual basis, slightly more than the 2.5% expected, while the ‘core’ figure, which excludes volatile energy and food elements, also edged higher to 2.9%, on the year.

“It will certainly take more than a marginal inflation surprise to lead markets to price in less than two ECB cuts by year-end, but today’s numbers may well help EUR/USD reinforce the 1.0800 support into the Fed risk event this evening,” ING added.

Yen soars after BOJ hike 

In Asia, fell 1.4% to 150.66, with the yen soaring after the hiking its benchmark short-term rate by 15 basis points to around 0.25% – the top end of market expectations.

It also said that it will halve its pace of Japanese Government Bond purchases – to ¥3 trillion ($19.5 billion) from ¥6 trillion by the first quarter of 2026. 

The yen was sitting on strong gains through July, with the USD/JPY pair down around 6.5%, as a mix of unwinding carry trade and suspected government intervention sparked buying in the currency. 

fell 0.4% to 7.2256, as soft data and positive government comments ramped up expectations for more stimulus measures in the country.

fell 0.7% to 0.6492, falling to its weakest level in three months, driven chiefly by some soft data for the June quarter. 

While headline CPI grew as expected in the quarter, lower core inflation drove up hopes that inflation will ease in the coming months, reducing the need for a rate hike by the RBA. 

 

 

Forex

Bank of America flags dollar longs as crowded, eyes global inflation concerns

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Bank of America (BofA) analysts highlighted a shift in market sentiment, identifying long U.S. dollar positions as the most crowded trade, and now a significant headwind for the currency. This perspective aligns with BofA’s recent reports on the U.S. dollar, emphasizing the stark contrast between current market positions and historical trends.

The analysts’ findings indicate a growing apprehension among market participants regarding global inflation, particularly with a re-acceleration anticipated by 2025. Euro Area inflation expectations are notably visible, underscoring the broader concerns about inflationary pressures.

Additionally, while emerging market (EM) investors seem to have discounted the worst-case scenarios related to tariffs, the uptick in sentiment is perceived as tentative. The cautious stance of EM investors reflects the uncertainty and challenges in the global trade environment.

BofA’s analysis suggests that the heavy positioning in favor of the U.S. dollar could be problematic. The report, dated January 14, 2025, points out that the extent of USD long positions is exceptional not only in a historical context but also when compared to the past year’s trends.

Furthermore, the discrepancy between conviction and positioning is evident, as only a fifth of respondents consider long USD their highest conviction trade. This is despite 42% of those surveyed expecting the peak of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to exceed 5%, as revealed in a separate exhibit from the bank’s research.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Go long USD/CNY ahead of Trump’s inauguration – UBS

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Investing.com – Donald Trump’s inauguration is right around the corner, and UBS has advised its clients to go long the pair to hedge policy risks before the big day.

In a light data week, Trump’s inauguration will take center stage next week, according to analysts at UBS, in a note dated Jan. 16.

“While we don’t know what his first moves will be, we doubt it will be to levy big tariffs on day one. But that doesn’t mean markets won’t stop focusing on it. FX markets are not priced for large tariffs. Big tariff moves could still weaken the CNY more meaningfully, hurting pro-growth currencies such as the EUR,” the Swiss bank said.

Given the risks, volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead. Option volatility has already risen, though this is more due to diverging economic growth expectations between the US and the rest of the world and to country- specific issues like those in the UK and Canada. This means any market-negative developments should still lead to higher actual and implied volatility.

USD/CNY has reached new highs of late, trading at the upper limit of the fixing range, the Swiss bank said. 

“We expect the yuan to face increased pressure once Trump firms up his tariff plans targeting China, which may lead the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to permit further depreciation of the currency,” UBS added.

A weaker CNY against the dollar could help mitigate some of the negative impacts of any tariff hikes. Additionally, vulnerable domestic economic fundamentals are likely to weigh on yuan sentiment, contributing to higher FX demand and investment outflows. 

“Overall, we like to be long , targeting a move toward 7.50 in the coming which could also provide positive carry of 2.1% p.a. We believe a stop-loss of 7.20 is prudent,” UBS said.

At 09:10 ET (14:10 GMT), USD/CNY traded marginally lower at 7.3289.

 

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UBS rises its USD/JPY forecast

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UBS revised its inflation forecast for Japan, projecting higher inflation rates in the coming years due to a robust US dollar and increased energy prices.

The UBS FX team adjusted their foreign exchange outlook, now expecting the exchange rate to hit 150 by the end of 2025, up from the previous estimate of 145. This adjustment is based on the backdrop of a strong US dollar.

The revised forecast anticipates a 0.1-0.2 percentage point increase in inflation for 2025 and 2026, driven by higher energy costs and consumer price index (CPI) goods. The core-core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, is projected to remain above 2% through 2025.

UBS now expects it to reach 2.0% year-over-year at the end of 2025, a slight uptick from the previous estimate of 1.9%. UBS also highlighted that food inflation, currently at 4.2% year-over-year, is expected to stay at similar levels at least through the first half of the current year. This is attributed to the yen’s depreciation and unstable supply conditions.

The research firm notes that while service inflation has been relatively low at 1.5%, particularly due to weak housing rent and public services prices, an acceleration in overall service inflation is anticipated.

However, the development of inflation in specific service components, such as housing rent and public services, which respectively account for 37% and 25% of the weight in services within the inflation calculation, remains uncertain. U

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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