Connect with us
  • tg

Forex

Dollar slips as US job growth slows in June, yen jumps

letizo News

Published

on

Dollar slips as US job growth slows in June, yen jumps
© Reuters. A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken May 7, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

By Herbert Lash and Amanda Cooper

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar slumped on Friday after signs of a less resilient U.S. labor market reduced the outlook for how long the Federal Reserves will keep interest rates higher, while the yen surged on concerns the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose above 4%.

The U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, the Labor Department said in an employment report that also showed 110,000 fewer jobs were created in April and May than earlier reported.

A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed’s target rate, a rate hike this month is likely.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said markets are looking at next week’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could show inflation slowing to 3.1%. That would reduce the likelihood of another rate hike by the Fed after one expected in late July.

“This is a inflection point,” he said. “The dollar’s rally in the second half of June was a counter-trend correction and the dollar’s underlying downtrend that began last September-October will resume.”

The yen rose 1.37% to 142.13, a two-week high against the U.S. currency, as the rise in 10-year Treasury’s yield above 4% heightened market concerns that Japan might intervene in currency markets, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst.

“Risk aversion being a dominant theme this week, coupled with dollar-yen hanging around these elevated levels, has the market nervous that Japan may be edging closer to jumping back in and intervening in support of the yen,” he said.

“We’re still in striking distance of 145, which appears to be the line in the sand, with Treasury yields – the 10-year in particular keeping above 4% – that’s a sign that any moves to the downside in dollar-yen may prove very limited.”

The fell 0.776% at 102.280, while the euro was up 0.72% to $1.0964.

The dollar and other major currencies, with the exception of Japan’s yen, are in a tight trading range as most central banks are engaged in tightening monetary policy to fight inflation. Strong U.S. economic data on Thursday pushed short-dated Treasury yields to their highest since 2007, reflecting the view that the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points when it concludes a two-day policy meeting on July 26.

After the jobs data, futures pointed to an 88.8% probability that the Fed hikes in three weeks.

Earlier, the Japanese labor ministry reported regular wages posted their largest annual increase in May since early 1995, reinforcing the view that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will have to modify its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner rather than later. “The stronger wage negotiations are starting to feed through, which is what the BOJ wants. They’ve said very clearly that if they see evidence of more sustained, stronger wage growth that could give them more confidence that they can beat their inflation target and then look obviously to moving away from loose policy settings,” MUFG strategist Lee Hardman said.

Adding a tailwind to the rally in the yen was some position-squaring among speculators, who have built up sizeable bearish positions, Hardman said. YEN BEARS, BEWARE Weekly data from the U.S. regulator shows speculators hold a short position in the yen worth $9.793 billion, the largest since May 2022, having almost doubled in size in the last three months alone. The yen has held just below the 145 level – which prompted the BOJ’s first intervention in decades last autumn – for about two weeks and authorities have made clear they are concerned about the weakness in the currency. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6681, but it is still battered by weak Chinese economic data and broad risk aversion. The fell 0.4% at 7.2257.

Currency bid prices at 3:46 p.m. (1946 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 102.2800 103.0900 -0.78% -1.169% +103.1900 +102.2200

Euro/Dollar $1.0966 $1.0892 +0.67% +2.34% +$1.0973 +$1.0867

Dollar/Yen 142.1200 144.0600 -1.34% +8.40% +144.1900 +142.0850

Euro/Yen 155.85 156.87 -0.65% +11.08% +156.9300 +155.3900

Dollar/Swiss 0.8889 0.8954 -0.72% -3.86% +0.8969 +0.8879

Sterling/Dollar $1.2833 $1.2740 +0.74% +6.12% +$1.2849 +$1.2727

Dollar/Canadian 1.3277 1.3369 -0.72% -2.04% +1.3386 +1.3266

Aussie/Dollar $0.6688 $0.6626 +0.95% -1.88% +$0.6701 +$0.6620

Euro/Swiss 0.9747 0.9749 -0.02% -1.50% +0.9760 +0.9737

Euro/Sterling 0.8542 0.8547 -0.06% -3.41% +0.8554 +0.8526

NZ Dollar/Dollar $0.6208 $0.6158 +0.87% -2.18% +$0.6219 +$0.6156

Dollar/Norway 10.6160 10.7690 -1.46% +8.13% +10.7750 +10.6110

Euro/Norway 11.6465 11.7212 -0.64% +10.99% +11.7360 +11.6210

Dollar/Sweden 10.8345 10.9232 -0.21% +4.10% +10.9653 +10.8260

Euro/Sweden 11.8812 11.9058 -0.21% +6.56% +11.9508 +11.8655

Forex

Dollar on back foot; euro awaits key inflation release

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com – The US dollar slipped lower Tuesday, heading towards a one-week low following a report that President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs could be less aggressive, while the euro gains ahead of key inflation data.

At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower to 107.775, after falling overnight to its weakest since Dec. 30.

Dollar remains on backfoot

The dollar has been on the backfoot since the Washington Post released a report on Monday stating that the new Trump administration was exploring plans to limit tariffs to sectors seen as critical to US national or economic security.

President-elect Donald Trump has denied the report in a post on his Truth Social platform, but the dollar has still struggled to make headway.

“The dollar’s failure to recover all its intraday losses on Monday likely indicates two factors: first, the market had been heavily favoring the dollar following a nearly continuous three-month rally; second, a view that there is no smoke without fire and that the contents of that Washington Post report sounded sensible,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

There is a lot of US economic data to digest Tuesday, including for December and the November , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.

“It is unlikely investors will want to consider actively selling the dollar ahead of Trump’s inauguration on 20 January on speculation over softer tariffs – but we could see a little more rebalancing of FX positioning and a little more dollar consolidation in the interim,” ING added.

Euro climbs ahead of inflation data

In Europe, rose 0.4% to 1.0431, climbing once more after jumping to a one-week high on Monday.

Attention turns Tuesday to the release of the latest inflation data out of the eurozone – the last data on regional prices before the European Central Bank’s next meeting on Jan. 30. 

The for December is expected to have risen 2.4% in December on an annual basis, speeding up from 2.2% in November.

However, data released from Spain and Germany showed faster-than-expected pickups in inflation, while France surprised to the downside.

Investors are currently looking for the ECB to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025, and any signs that inflation is easing further would give the ECB scope to loosen policy more, weighing on the single currency.

traded 0.4% higher to 1.2569, following sharp gains overnight, despite data showing British house prices dropped unexpectedly last month for the first time since March.

Mortgage lender Halifax said fell 0.2% in December after a 1.2% rise in November, and were 3.3% higher on the year – lower than the 4.2% expected.

The held interest rates unchanged last month after consumer prices rose above target, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year.

Yuan remains weak

In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3325, with the Chinese currency continuing to underperform, hitting its weakest level in 17 years on Monday.

While the currency did recover some ground, it remained fragile, with new US. restrictions against Chinese companies adding more pressure on the currency. 

slipped slightly to 157.56, after earlier hitting its highest level in nearly six months.

 

 

Continue Reading

Forex

Asia FX muted as markets weigh Trump tariffs, dollar hovers above 1-wk low

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for less strict trade tariffs under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, while the dollar steadied from some overnight losses. 

The Chinese yuan continued to severely lag its peers after its onshore pair hit its weakest level in 17 years on Monday. While the currency did recover some ground, it remained fragile, with new U.S. restrictions against Chinese companies adding more pressure on the currency. 

The dollar also steadied after recouping a bulk of its overnight losses, as a recent report sparked increased speculation over just what Trump’s tariff plans will entail. 

The Japanese yen’s pair rose 0.4% and hit its highest level in nearly six months, while the Australian dollar’s rose 0.2%. Australian data for November is due on Wednesday. 

The South Korean won’s pair fell slightly, while the Indian rupee’s pair steadied after recovering sharply from record highs above 86 rupees. 

Dollar steadies above 1-week low amid tariff speculation

The and rose slightly in Asian trade, recovering from a one-week low hit on Monday. 

The greenback recouped a bulk of its Monday losses after Trump denied a Washington Post report that his administration will impose less strict trade tariffs than initially promised. 

Trump- who is set to take office in less than two weeks- has vowed to impose steep import tariffs against China and other major economies, raising concerns over a renewed global trade war. 

The prospect of more tariffs was a key driver of the dollar’s recent rally, as was growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025. Hawkish comments from Fed officials furthered this notion over the weekend. 

Focus this week is now on key data for December, due on Friday, for more cues on the U.S. economy and labor market. 

Chinese yuan fragile amid US trade jitters 

The Chinese yuan was the worst-performing Asian currency this week, having touched its weakest level in 17 years on Monday.

The yuan’s onshore pair rose 0.3% on Tuesday, with the Chinese currency remaining fragile in the prospect of more U.S. trade headwinds.

The U.S. on Tuesday added technology giants Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:) and Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZ:) to a blacklist of companies with ties to the Chinese military, threatening to further strain ties between the world’s largest economies. 

Beijing is expected to dole out even more stimulus measures in the face of a renewed trade war with the U.S.

Focus this week is on , due on Thursday, for more cues on Asia’s biggest economy, as it struggles to shore up growth.

Continue Reading

Forex

Dollar down in choppy trade on Trump tariff confusion

letizo News

Published

on

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was lower on Monday in choppy trading after conflicting reports about how aggressive President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans could be when he takes office.  

The dollar dropped as much as 1.07% on the session against a basket of major currencies after the Washington Post reported that Trump’s aides were exploring plans that would apply tariffs to every country – but only on sectors seen as critical to U.S. national or economic security, easing concerns about harsher and wider levies.

The dollar then sharply pared declines after Trump denied the report in a post on his Truth Social platform. 

“The reality here is that Trump’s Truth Social views are going to drive FX volatility for a while and (Monday) morning’s reaction is indicative of the underlying dynamics,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

“The market consensus is that Trump’s bark will be worse than his bite, and any news that confirms that concept is fuel for rallying in risk assets and for a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields, but the reality here is that the downside risks remain and there’s no clear endpoint for that,” Schamotta added.

The , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.64% to 108.26, with the euro up 0.76% at $1.0386. The dollar was on pace for its biggest daily percentage drop since Nov. 27 with the euro poised for its biggest daily gain since Aug. 2.

The dollar index had reached a two-year high of 109.54 last week en route to its fifth straight weekly gain, as the resilient economy, the potential for higher inflation from tariffs and a slower pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have buttressed the greenback. 

The strengthened 0.16% against the greenback to 7.348 per dollar. The dollar reached a 26-month high against the currency last week as China is seen as one of Trump’s major tariff targets. 

Also helping the dollar pare declines were comments from Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who said the Fed can afford to be cautious with any further rate cuts given an economy that is on solid footing and inflation that has been stickier than expected. 

Various Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, and are likely to echo recent comments from other Fed officials that there remains a need to combat the stubborn levels of inflation.

The euro, which hit its lowest level since November 2022 last week, strengthened after annual German inflation rose more than forecast in December, according to preliminary data. 

“There’s a window there for potentially 2%, 3% or 4% correction in the dollar index that could unfold in the next while, but we’d need either a stronger sense that either the European economy’s doing a bit better, so we see a further pick up in European interest rates, or some further moderation in expectations regarding tariffs to drive that,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank (TSX:) in Toronto.

U.S. economic data showed new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in November while business spending on equipment appeared to have slowed in the fourth quarter.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar firmed 0.17% to 157.53 while sterling strengthened 0.72% to $1.251.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A bank employee counts U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

Investors will gauge a string of data on the U.S. labor market this week, culminating in Friday’s key government payrolls report. 

The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.74% versus the greenback to C$1.43 per dollar after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would step down as leader of the ruling Liberals in the coming month. 

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved