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Forex

Dollar slips further ahead of key Fed meeting

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday, trading around its lowest levels this year, on growing bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, potentially by a large amount. 

At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 100.299.

Fed meeting starts 

The U.S. central bank starts its latest policy-setting meeting later in the session, amid growing expectations that the will cut interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points at the conclusion of a meeting on Wednesday. 

Traders are pricing in a 68% chance for a 50 bps cut and a 32% chance for a 25 bps cut, CME Fedwatch showed. 

“Markets have continued to consolidate their bearish dollar positions ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “This FX dynamics is a direct consequence of the steady dovish repricing in rate expectations, with the swap market now attaching around 70% implied probability (43bp) of a 50bp cut tomorrow.”

The economic data slate Tuesday includes the release of the latest U.S. numbers, which are forecast to have contracted month-on-month in August, potentially adding further weight to the idea of a 50 bps hike.  

Euro could gain more in recession – BNP Paribas

In Europe, traded 0.1% higher to 1.1136, not far from the year’s high of 1.1201 despite the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 25 bps last week.

The German ZEW economic sentiment survey is due later in the session, and is expected to show a slight deterioration this month as conditions in the eurozone’s largest economy remained challenging.

The euro could rally further against the dollar even if there is a global recession, according to analysts at BNP Paribas (OTC:), in a note.

The French bank cites the dollar being used as a high-yielding currency, which has historically not been the case, as a reason, as this would mean the dollar is more vulnerable to fall as U.S. interest rates come down. 

The Federal Reserve pushing rates further above their neutral level than many other central banks is another factor, while euro and peripheral government bond spreads in the currency bloc have become less sensitive to risk-off periods, a positive for the euro.

slipped marginally lower to 1.3213, even though sterling has been the best performing G10 currency this year with a 3.9% rise on the dollar.

The meets on Thursday, and is expected to hold its key interest rate at 5%, after kicking off its easing with a 25-bp reduction in August.

Yen looks to BOJ meeting

The yen fell 0.1% against the dollar to 140.50, with the pair remaining close to its lowest levels for the year.

The yen was boosted by the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates, while traders were also seen building long positions in the yen before a meeting this Friday.

Analysts do not expect the BOJ to hike interest rates. But policymakers are expected to present a hawkish front and forecast higher interest rates in the face of a pick-up in inflation. 

traded largely unchanged at 7.0930, with local Chinese markets closed for a second straight session. But a swathe of weak economic readings from the country, released over the weekend, primed the yuan for more weakness.

 

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Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities

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Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.

In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.

“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.

The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said. 

Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.

Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.

“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.

 

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Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data

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Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.

At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.

Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar

The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.

This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level. 

“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”

The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.

There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.

German economic weakness weighs on euro

In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.

fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.

“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.

traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.

The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.

Yuan sentiment remains weak

In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.

Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China. 

gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.

The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency. 

 

 

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Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks

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By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn

SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.

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