Forex
Dollar soars as Trump nears election win; euro, sterling, yen all retreat sharply
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar soared Wednesday, set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2020, as Donald Trump closed in on presidential victory, while a Republican clean sweep of Congress also looked likely.
At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies,rose 1.4% to 104.737, after earlier climbing as high as 105.237, a four-month peak.
Dollar soars as Trump nears White House return
Republican candidate Donald Trump declared himself the victor in the US presidential election earlier Wednesday, despite the race yet to be officially called, saying the win gives him a “powerful mandate” to enact his various economic policies.
The Republican party has also won a majority in the Senate, and was also seen on course to also win the House of Representatives.
A Republican sweep in Congress presents a much easier path for Trump to enact major policy changes, with his tariff and immigration policies seen as inflationary by analysts, buoying the dollar.
“Trump trades are in full swing as the counting of US ballots continues,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “If the growing consensus for a Republican clean sweep ends up materialising, we expect a prolonged period of dollar outperformance.”
The also meets this week, concluding its gathering on Thursday. Markets have been positioning for another rate cut, this time by 25 basis points instead of the jumbo 50-basis point reduction seen in September.
Euro slumps
In Europe, slumped 1.5% to 1.0762, falling to its lowest level since early July as a second term for Donald Trump as US president becomes more likely.
“The euro has so far proved the weakest of the G10 currencies overnight and you can see why,” ING added. “The expectation is that Donald Trump extends his trade war from just China in his first term more broadly in his second term. This at a time of stagnant eurozone growth and self-reflection – especially in Germany – as to its future business model. Plans to export its way out of stagnation are no longer an option for the eurozone.”
This euro weakness comes despite Germany’s services sector seeing a slight uptick in business activity in October, reaching a three-month high, earlier Wednesday.
The rose to 51.6 from 50.6 in September, marking the first acceleration in growth in five months.
fell 1% to 1.2917, with the likely to authorise another rate cut of 25 basis points on Thursday, its second cut following its first reduction in the cost of borrowing in four years in August.
Before last week’s budget a cut was seen as a near certainty, but the bigger than expected scale of Government spending and borrowing revealed has created some uncertainty.
Asian currencies face Trump woes
soared 1.6% to 153.95, to an over three-month high, as the Trump victory drew nearer.
Weakness in the yen also kept traders on edge over potential currency market intervention by the government, following recent verbal threats from ministers.
climbed 0.8% to 7.1579, with the yuan retreating as Trump has vowed to impose steep tariffs against China if reelected, presenting a tougher outlook for the yuan.
Focus this week is also on a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, where the government is widely expected to approve more fiscal spending for the coming years.
fell 0.9% to 0.6579, with the Australian economy seen suffering as a consequence of Trump’s potential tariffs on China, given Australia’s trade links with the Asian giant.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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