Forex
Dollar stabilizes after gains; sterling boosted by retail sales
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower Friday, handing back some of the previous session’s gains on the back of strong retail sales, but remained on track for its third weekly gain in a row.
At 04:35 ET (08:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.495.
Dollar in demand
The dollar soared to an over 2-½ month high on Thursday following stronger-than-expected data, which added to recent signs of continued resilience in the US labor market.
This has resulted in traders largely inking in expectations for a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve next month, a smaller cut than what the US central bank started the rate-cutting cycle in September.
The greenback has also received favor on raised expectations that Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the presidency next month, given the likelihood of dollar-supporting trade tariffs.
“We still think some de-risking into 5 November can lead to some defensive flows into the dollar,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
Sterling boosted by retail sales
In Europe, gained 0.3% to 1.3049, after data released Friday showed British unexpectedly rose 0.3% in September, beating economists’ expectations for a monthly 0.3% fall.
Combined with stronger gains in July and August, sales rose by 1.9% rise in the third quarter, the joint largest increase since mid-2021.
“Still, growth data is of secondary interest for the BoE right now. This week’s surprise dip in services inflation is more important, suggesting back-to-back rate cuts are becoming more likely,” ING added.
edged 0.1% higher to 1.0844, but the euro remains on course for a weekly loss of almost 1% in the wake of Thursday’s rate cut by the .
In fact, the dollar’s 3% three-week gain versus the euro is the sharpest rally since the middle of 2022.
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, following on from September’s move – the first back-to-back rate cut since 2011.
Although this reduction was widely expected, the quickening pace of rate cuts points to a worsening economic outlook amid signs that inflation is increasingly under control.
Yuan helped by GDP data
fell 0.3% to 7.1037, with the pair slipping back after hitting a near two-month high earlier this week.
Chinese GDP grew 4.6% year-on-year, as expected, albeit at a slower pace than seen in the prior quarter. Quarter-on-quarter growth slightly missed expectations, while year-to-date GDP still remained below the government’s 5% annual target.
The GDP data underscored the need for more economic support from Beijing. The Chinese government had unveiled a slew of stimulus measures over the past three weeks, including both monetary and fiscal measures, but a lack of clear details on the timing, implementation and scale of the planned measures spurred limited optimism among investors.
fell 0.1% to 150.00, with the Japanese yen firming slightly after reaching a near three-month low earlier in the session..
data showed inflation grew slightly more than expected in September, although it fell from 10-month highs hit in the prior month.
Forex
British pound slides amidst rising gilt yields and fiscal concerns
Investing.com — The British pound continued its recent decline against the dollar and the euro on Monday, driven by rising investor worries about the fiscal sustainability of Britain as gilt yields increased for the sixth consecutive day.
Sterling depreciated as much as 0.7% against the dollar, reaching $1.2103, its lowest since November 2023. It later settled with a 0.6% drop at $1.2125. In comparison to the euro, the pound was down 0.2% at 84.10 pence.
The pound has become a focus of global currency traders due to the impact of soaring global bond yields, primarily originating from the United States, on British markets. These rising yields stem from concerns about increasing inflation and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Strong U.S. labor market data released on Friday added fuel to the global bond yields, leading money markets to stop fully pricing in any rate cut from the Fed this year. Although higher yields often bolster the currency, analysts in Britain anticipate that the government may need to cut spending or increase taxes to adhere to its fiscal rules, which could potentially affect future growth.
On Monday, Britain’s 10-year gilt yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.879%, slightly below last week’s 2008 high of 4.925%. It had increased by over 24 basis points last week, marking its largest weekly rise in a year. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship. The 30-year yield in Britain reached its highest level in 27 years on Monday, hitting 5.472%.
This week, attention is also likely to center on British inflation data set to be released on Wednesday, which could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy in the near term. Consumer prices are projected to have increased by 2.6% annually in December, matching November’s rate, while core CPI is expected to have eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.
Futures markets are currently pricing in around 16 basis points of easing at the BoE’s February meeting, which suggests approximately a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
China boosts support for yuan, increases overseas borrowing limits
Investing.com — In a bid to bolster its weakening currency, China has unveiled plans to store more dollars in Hong Kong and improve capital flows. The measures, announced on Monday, include allowing companies to increase their overseas borrowing.
The yuan has been struggling, hovering near 16-month lows amid a dominant dollar, falling Chinese bond yields, and the looming threat of higher trade barriers as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency begins next week.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been taking steps to halt the yuan’s decline since late last year, including issuing warnings against speculative moves and taking measures to support yields. On Monday, authorities reiterated their warnings against speculating against the yuan and increased the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, a move aimed at allowing more foreign exchange to flow into the country.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng addressed the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong, stating that the central bank plans to considerably increase the proportion of China’s foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong. However, he did not provide further details. China’s foreign reserves were around $3.2 trillion at the end of December, but little is known about where these reserves are invested.
The currency has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the U.S. election in early November, due to concerns that Trump’s proposed new trade tariffs could put additional pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.
The PBOC has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the stronger side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts interpret as a sign of concern over the yuan’s decline.
The central bank also announced other measures in recent days, including suspending treasury bond purchases and planning to issue large amounts of bills in Hong Kong. These steps aim to prevent yields from falling too much and to control the circulation of yuan offshore.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
Rising dollar pressures peers as further Fed rate cuts questioned
By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday’s blowout U.S. jobs report underscored the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
The , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies, surged to its highest in more than two years on Monday to peak at 110.17, extending the recent rally.
Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Markets were now no longer fully pricing in even one rate cut from the Fed in 2025, down from roughly two quarter-point cuts priced at the start of the year.
With Wednesday’s reading on U.S. inflation up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week.
“If you look back at the last year there were worries and signs that there were cracks in the labour market emerging, but they seem to have been fully plastered, not just papered over,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.
“The U.S. economy is resilient enough to justify a strong dollar and justify relatively higher rates.”
Adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle is the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation. He returns to the White House in a week.
The euro hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022 at $1.0177, while sterling was one of the biggest losers, sliding as much as 0.7% to a 14-month low of $1.21.
The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain’s finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week.
“The overriding view remains that the UK government will probably be forced to announce spending cuts on 26 March,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
“This will feed into a tighter fiscal/looser monetary/weaker sterling narrative.”
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar sank to its weakest since April 2020 at $0.6131. The New Zealand dollar last traded at $0.5544, languishing near a more than two-year low.
BEIJING STEPS IN
The yuan meanwhile bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings.
The rose 0.1% to 7.3576 per dollar.
Monday’s moves by the People’s Bank of China follow its suspension on Friday of treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan.
“The PBOC is doing whatever it takes to maintain RMB stability,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.
The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.
Elsewhere, the yen similarly rose 0.2% to 157.37. The yen’s decline was mitigated by news that Bank of Japan policymakers could raise their inflation forecast at a policy meeting this month as a prelude to hiking rates again.
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