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Dollar steadies after Fed-inspired losses; sterling weak ahead of BOE

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, rebounding after the previous session’s hefty losses following the Federal Reserve opening the door to a September rate cut, while the U.K. pound fell ahead of the Bank of England’s latest policy-setting meeting.  

At 05:45 ET (09:45 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 104.154, after dropping 0.4% on Wednesday. 

The index fell 1.7% in July, its weakest monthly performance this year.

Dollar trims Fed related losses

The maintained interest rates at their current levels at the conclusion of its two-day policy-setting meeting Wednesday, as widely expected, but also indicated that an easing of monetary policy was nearing.

Fed Chair noted that while inflation is running “somewhat” above target, the upside risks have diminished, and downside risks to the labor market are building.

Powell’s comments “suggest the bar is not very high” for a September cut, according to economists at Goldman Sachs, in a note.

“We continue to expect that the July inflation data will be favorable (we forecast 21bp for core CPI and 19bp for core PCE) and think that even acceptable news would likely clinch a September cut,” Goldman economists added.

The July report is due to be released on Aug. 14.

There’s a lot of economic data due for release Thursday, including weekly data, for June and data for July, but the main focus now is on Friday’s widely-watched monthly report.

This is expected to show that the U.S. economy created 177,000 jobs in July, moderating from 206,000 in the prior month. The , which has ticked higher in each of the past three months, is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

Sterling slumps ahead of BOE meeting

In Europe, slumped 0.7% to 1.2767, with sterling retreating sharply ahead of the meeting, due later in the session.

There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this decision as key central bank officials have not spoken publicly for over two months given the proximity of the U.K. general election in July.

U.K. returned to the BOE’s 2% target in May and stayed there in June, suggesting a cut later Thursday is a distinct possibility.

In June, the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, but minutes of the meeting recorded that several of those who voted to hold had been close to voting for a cut.

fell 0.4% to 1.0783, after data showed eurozone manufacturing activity remained mired in contraction in July, suggesting the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates again this year to boost a slowing economy.

HCOB’s final , compiled by S&P Global, held at June’s 45.8 in July, just ahead of a 45.6 preliminary estimate. 

It has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for over two years.

Yen soared in July 

In Asia, fell 0.2% to 149.66, with the yen strengthening in the wake of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to levels not seen in 15 years as well as the Fed putting rate cuts on the table as US inflation cools.

The yen surged 7% in July, its strongest monthly performance since November 2022, after starting the month rooted near 38 year lows in large part due to bouts of interventions by Japanese authorities that totalled $36.8 billion.

rose 0.3% to 7.2432, after data showed an unexpected contraction in China’s manufacturing sector, following the release of weak government PMI data earlier in the week.

The readings drummed up concerns over a wider slowdown in China’s biggest economic engines, and further soured sentiment towards the country. They also sparked more calls for stimulus measures from Beijing.

 

Forex

Bank of America flags dollar longs as crowded, eyes global inflation concerns

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Bank of America (BofA) analysts highlighted a shift in market sentiment, identifying long U.S. dollar positions as the most crowded trade, and now a significant headwind for the currency. This perspective aligns with BofA’s recent reports on the U.S. dollar, emphasizing the stark contrast between current market positions and historical trends.

The analysts’ findings indicate a growing apprehension among market participants regarding global inflation, particularly with a re-acceleration anticipated by 2025. Euro Area inflation expectations are notably visible, underscoring the broader concerns about inflationary pressures.

Additionally, while emerging market (EM) investors seem to have discounted the worst-case scenarios related to tariffs, the uptick in sentiment is perceived as tentative. The cautious stance of EM investors reflects the uncertainty and challenges in the global trade environment.

BofA’s analysis suggests that the heavy positioning in favor of the U.S. dollar could be problematic. The report, dated January 14, 2025, points out that the extent of USD long positions is exceptional not only in a historical context but also when compared to the past year’s trends.

Furthermore, the discrepancy between conviction and positioning is evident, as only a fifth of respondents consider long USD their highest conviction trade. This is despite 42% of those surveyed expecting the peak of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to exceed 5%, as revealed in a separate exhibit from the bank’s research.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Go long USD/CNY ahead of Trump’s inauguration – UBS

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Investing.com – Donald Trump’s inauguration is right around the corner, and UBS has advised its clients to go long the pair to hedge policy risks before the big day.

In a light data week, Trump’s inauguration will take center stage next week, according to analysts at UBS, in a note dated Jan. 16.

“While we don’t know what his first moves will be, we doubt it will be to levy big tariffs on day one. But that doesn’t mean markets won’t stop focusing on it. FX markets are not priced for large tariffs. Big tariff moves could still weaken the CNY more meaningfully, hurting pro-growth currencies such as the EUR,” the Swiss bank said.

Given the risks, volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead. Option volatility has already risen, though this is more due to diverging economic growth expectations between the US and the rest of the world and to country- specific issues like those in the UK and Canada. This means any market-negative developments should still lead to higher actual and implied volatility.

USD/CNY has reached new highs of late, trading at the upper limit of the fixing range, the Swiss bank said. 

“We expect the yuan to face increased pressure once Trump firms up his tariff plans targeting China, which may lead the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to permit further depreciation of the currency,” UBS added.

A weaker CNY against the dollar could help mitigate some of the negative impacts of any tariff hikes. Additionally, vulnerable domestic economic fundamentals are likely to weigh on yuan sentiment, contributing to higher FX demand and investment outflows. 

“Overall, we like to be long , targeting a move toward 7.50 in the coming which could also provide positive carry of 2.1% p.a. We believe a stop-loss of 7.20 is prudent,” UBS said.

At 09:10 ET (14:10 GMT), USD/CNY traded marginally lower at 7.3289.

 

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UBS rises its USD/JPY forecast

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UBS revised its inflation forecast for Japan, projecting higher inflation rates in the coming years due to a robust US dollar and increased energy prices.

The UBS FX team adjusted their foreign exchange outlook, now expecting the exchange rate to hit 150 by the end of 2025, up from the previous estimate of 145. This adjustment is based on the backdrop of a strong US dollar.

The revised forecast anticipates a 0.1-0.2 percentage point increase in inflation for 2025 and 2026, driven by higher energy costs and consumer price index (CPI) goods. The core-core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, is projected to remain above 2% through 2025.

UBS now expects it to reach 2.0% year-over-year at the end of 2025, a slight uptick from the previous estimate of 1.9%. UBS also highlighted that food inflation, currently at 4.2% year-over-year, is expected to stay at similar levels at least through the first half of the current year. This is attributed to the yen’s depreciation and unstable supply conditions.

The research firm notes that while service inflation has been relatively low at 1.5%, particularly due to weak housing rent and public services prices, an acceleration in overall service inflation is anticipated.

However, the development of inflation in specific service components, such as housing rent and public services, which respectively account for 37% and 25% of the weight in services within the inflation calculation, remains uncertain. U

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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