Forex
Dollar strengthens versus yen as BOJ strikes cautious stance on rate hikes
By Chibuike Oguh and Linda Pasquini
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday, hitting its highest level in two weeks, after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and indicated that it was not in a hurry to hike them again.
The BOJ could afford to spend time eyeing the fallout from global economic uncertainties, Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a press conference following the central bank’s move, adding that its monetary policy decision will be based on “economic, price and financial developments.” The BOJ kept rates steady at 0.25%, a move that was widely expected.
The dollar rose as high as 144.50 yen, reaching its highest level since early September. It was last up 0.92% at 143.92. The euro also strengthened against the yen, gaining 0.93% to 160.59.
“We’re seeing a little bit of consolidation in markets that got the dollar-yen move, which has been quite significant in the past few days since the Fed,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to cut interest rates by half a percentage point.
“The statement sounded perhaps a little bit more cautious than markets would have liked given the assumption that we will see another rate cut from the Bank of Japan before Christmas. I still think that’s likely.”
The dollar has traded in a choppy fashion since the Fed kicked off its monetary policy easing cycle.
Against the dollar, however, the euro weakened 0.01% to $1.115925. The , which measures the greenback against major currencies, gained slightly to 100.75 and just above a one-year low.
“There’s a sense in the market that the Bank of Japan doesn’t need to hike rates and also we’re turning more to the political situation in Japan,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.
Markets imply nearly a 49% chance the Fed will deliver another 50-basis-point rate cut in November and have priced in 74.8 bps of cuts by the end of this year. The Fed’s policy rate is expected by the end of 2025 to be at 2.85%, which is now thought to be the Fed’s estimate of the neutral rate.
That dovish outlook has bolstered hopes for continued U.S. economic growth and sparked a major rally in risk assets. Currencies leveraged to global growth and commodity prices also benefited, with the Australian dollar reaching as high as $0.68285. It was last down 0.13% to $0.68060.
“It runs counter-intuitive to what we’ve seen in the market, with a big cut from the Fed and the Bank of Japan holding rates. I think that the message really from dollar-yen is that the market is feeling better about global growth,” Button said.
China unexpectedly left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Friday. Beijing has been hinting at other stimulus measures, enabled in part by the Fed’s aggressive easing that shoved the dollar to a 16-month low against the yuan.
Major Chinese state-owned banks were seen buying dollars in the onshore spot foreign exchange market on Friday to prevent the yuan from appreciating too fast, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The dollar weakened 0.23% to 7.043 versus the offshore .
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be “careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”
The pound was up 0.24% at $1.33180, supported by the release on Friday of strong British retail sales data.
Currency bid prices at 20
September 06:46 p.m. GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 100.74 100.67 0.07% -0.62% 101.01 100.41
Euro/Dollar 1.1162 1.1162 -0.01% 1.11% $1.1181 $1.1136
Dollar/Yen 143.84 142.62 0.9% 2.03% 144.485 141.84
Euro/Yen 1.1162 159.19 0.85% 3.16% 161.15 158.43
Dollar/Swiss 0.8506 0.8478 0.35% 1.09% 0.8516 0.8453
Sterling/Dollar 1.3314 1.3286 0.22% 4.63% $1.3341 $1.3269
Dollar/Canadian 1.356 1.3557 0.04% 2.31% 1.359 1.3543
Aussie/Dollar 0.6806 0.6815 -0.13% -0.18% $0.6829 $0.6784
Euro/Swiss 0.9494 0.9462 0.34% 2.22% 0.9503 0.9447
Euro/Sterling 0.838 0.8401 -0.25% -3.32% 0.8407 0.8382
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6237 0.6242 -0.06% -1.29% $0.6258 0.621
Dollar/Norway 10.4989 10.4814 0.17% 3.59% 10.561 10.4482
Euro/Norway 11.7197 11.699 0.18% 4.42% 11.7702 11.681
Dollar/Sweden 10.1778 10.1512 0.26% 1.1% 10.2309 10.138
Euro/Sweden 11.3604 11.338 0.2% 2.11% 11.3988 11.3326
Forex
Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities
Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.
In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.
“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.
The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said.
Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.
Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.
“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.
Forex
Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data
Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.
Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar
The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.
This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level.
“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”
The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.
There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.
German economic weakness weighs on euro
In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.
fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.
The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.
Yuan sentiment remains weak
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.
Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.
gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.
The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency.
Forex
Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks
By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn
SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.
Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.
Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.
hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.
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