Forex
Dollar up slightly after consumer sentiment data, CPI eyed
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar inched higher on Friday following a reading on U.S. consumer sentiment as investors sorted through a batch of comments from Federal Reserve officials, with the focus beginning to turn toward key inflation readings next week.
The greenback pared declines and turned modestly higher after the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment came in at 67.4 for May, a six-month low and below the 76.0 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. In addition, the one-year inflation expectation climbed to 3.5% from 3.2%.
The dollar had weakened on Thursday after a higher than expected reading on initial jobless claims fueled expectations the labor market was loosening, adding to other recent data that indicated the overall economy was slowing.
The , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, gained 0.09% to 105.31, with the euro down 0.08% at $1.0772. The dollar was on track for its first weekly gain after two straight weeks of declines.
Next week, investors will eye readings on inflation in the form of the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), as well as retail sales data.
“The CPI, I don’t think it’s going to change people’s views; the price pressure is still elevated, but it’ll be a decline, it will be just a softer year-over-year read,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
“So it’s not so much the magnitude, but the direction.”
remove ads
.
Also supporting the dollar were comments from Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, who said it was not clear whether monetary policy was tight enough to bring inflation down to the U.S. central bank’s 2% goal, and it was too soon to be cutting interest rates.
That ran counter to earlier comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, who said the Fed likely remained on track to cut rates this year even if the timing and extent of the policy easing was uncertain. In addition, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said he believes U.S. monetary policy is “relatively restrictive.”
The comments capped off a week of varying opinions among Fed officials as to whether rates are high enough.
Following last week’s softer than expected U.S. payrolls report and a Fed policy announcement, markets have been pricing in about 50 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, with a 62.2% chance for a cut of at least 25 basis points in September, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.26% to 155.86 and was up about 1.9% on the week against the Japanese currency after it tumbled 3.4% last week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since early December 2022 after two suspected interventions by the Bank of Japan.
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday the government would take appropriate action on foreign exchange if needed, echoing recent comments from other officials.
Sterling edged up 0.02% to $1.2525 after earlier reaching $1.2541 in the wake of data showing Britain’s economy grew by the most in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2024, ending the shallow recession it entered in the second half of last year.
remove ads
.
Forex
Dollar gains on tariffs fears; euro looks to ECB meeting
Forex
Swiss franc and yen surge as DeepSeek AI shakes U.S. tech dominance
Forex
Dollar strength likely to continue near term – UBS
Investing.com – The US dollar has been on a tear since its late-September 2024 lows, and UBS thinks this near-term strength is likely to persist in the first half of the new year, with room to overshoot.
At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% lower, but has gained almost 4% over the course of the last year.
Better incoming US data (nonfarm payrolls and purchasing managers’ index)—and with it, US yields moving higher—have provided broad dollar support, analysts at UBS said, in a note.
Economic news elsewhere has been rather mixed, with growth prospects for Europe staying highly subdued. Accelerating growth in China suggests that there is growth outside the US. But with US tariff risks looming large, stronger activity in China is unlikely to shift investor sentiment and stall the USD rally, in our view.
In the near term, there seem to be limited headwinds holding the USD back, the Swiss bank added.
“US exceptionalism has appeared to reassert itself, with US economic data likely to stay strong in the near term and risks to US inflation moving higher again. The latest growth and inflation dynamics have lifted US growth and inflation expectations, which could allow the Fed to stay on hold in 2025.”
At least in the short run markets are likely to think this way, while other key central banks are likely to cut rates further.
The potential for monetary policy divergence is a powerful driver, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates.
US tariffs are also looming large, weighing on sentiment. The concern on tariffs is that they will have inflationary consequences. Given inflation scarring is still fresh on investors’ minds, it is dominating market narratives.
“That said, we think that a policy rate of 4-4.5% in the US remains restrictive and is a headwind to economic growth and inflation. This is unlikely to change absent hard evidence that productivity is rising in the US, which may happen given developments in AI and associated investment,” the Swiss bank added.
It appears that the market-unfriendly parts of the new Trump agenda (e.g., tariffs, trade tensions, immigration) are easier to implement and more likely to happen before the market-friendly parts (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation).
“We think a negative impact on US growth is not priced at all in the forex market, which cannot be said for the rest of the world, particularly Europe,” UBS said.
“Hence, we still think that 2025 could be a story of two halves—strength in 1H, and partial or full reversal in 2H. The fact that the USD is trading at multi-decade highs in strongly overvalued territory and that investor positioning (like speculative accounts in the futures market) is elevated underpin this narrative.”
- Forex3 years ago
Forex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Forex3 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Cryptocurrency3 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China
- Forex2 years ago
The dollar is down again against major world currencies