Forex

Dollars hands back gains ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting;

Published

4 months ago

June 11, 2024

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar retreated Tuesday, falling back from a one-month high, as yields fell back ahead of key U.S. inflation data and the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower at 104.795, after reaching 105.39 on Monday for the first time since May 14.

Dollar retreats ahead of CPI, Fed meeting

The dollar received a boost from Friday’s stronger-than-expected , supported by higher Treasury yields as traders pared back bets for Fed rate cuts this year.

However, yields have retreated Tuesday, dragging the dollar lower, as traders opted for a more cautious stance ahead of the release of crucial U.S. consumer price data and fresh interest rate forecasts on Wednesday.

The May is expected to rise just 0.1% on the month, an annual rise of 3.4% – still considerably above the Fed’s 2% medium-term target.

Traders continue to price in some monetary easing this year, although a reduction in September is now seen largely as a 50:50 shot.

This inflation data comes just below the Federal reserve concludes its latest two-day policy-setting meeting, with no change in interest rates practically a certainty.

Traders will be looking to see if the Fed officials change their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year, a move that is deemed likely given they called for three reductions in their last forecast.

“We note the dollar has ended lower on the day after the last four consecutive FOMC meetings – largely on the back of Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish rhetoric at the press conference,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“We cannot rule out that happening again given that market pricing of this year’s Fed easing cycle remains on the low side.”

Euro steadies after French election shock

traded largely flat at 1.0761, after falling as low as 1.0733 on Monday, a level last seen on May 9, after the shock news that French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election following gains by the far right in European Parliament elections.

“Macron’s government was already struggling with fiscal consolidation, and the concern is now that any National Rally government will follow a Trump-esque approach to fiscal consolidation – i.e., trying to grow its way out of the problem,” said analysts at ING.

“EUR/USD is going to struggle to rally this month. We suspect it will continue to trade around the 1.07/08 area, with downside risks.”

fell 0.1% to 1.2719, following the release of labor data that showed a decline in U.K. employment.

The rose to 4.4% in April, from 4.3% the prior month, while the surged over 50,000 in May, many more than the expected 10,000.

This could provide the Bank of England with incentive to start cutting interest rates later this month, but rose by 5.9% in April, more than the expected 5.7%, suggesting that wage-driven inflation remains an issue.

“Given the Bank Of England’s lack of opportunities to communicate with the market because of the 4 July election, we will have to wait on the 20 June BoE rate meeting for major updates here,” said ING.

BOJ to cut bond purchases?

In Asia, traded 0.2% higher to 157.32, ahead of a meeting on Friday.

Investors expect a reduction in the central bank’s monthly government bond purchases, potentially as early as this meeting.

rose 0.1% to 7.2542, remaining close to six-month highs as traders fret about an uneven economic recovery.

Forex

US dollar gains as US election draws nearer – UBS

Published

14 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Investing.com – The US dollar has gained more ground as the US presidential election draws near, UBS noted, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.

A new USD-positive over the past week has been media reports of somewhat better outlook for Donald Trump in the latest polls, as outcomes that allow for policies such as more aggressive tariffs are viewed as more USD positive.

“Higher odds of a Trump presidency are likely to be associated with a stronger USD near term,” said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Oct. 16.

Where does this leave us now with our USD views?

Our expected ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 incorporated the possibility of a material USD rebound between now and year end, even if our year-end forecasts see a modestly lower USD from current levels.

Last week, with an eye to our year end forecast, we entered a long call reverse knockout, but we are not willing to implement a similar trade yet for and .

The spot is still far enough from our range extremes and high JPY implied volatility and negative carry make long JPY positions unattractive so close to US elections.

Turning to this week’s ECB meeting, the market is very confident that another 25bp rate cut will be delivered and we do not have a strong reason to disagree.

Market expectations are very muted for any form of surprise, and risk reversal skews bid again for EUR puts point to a market that is already primed for the risk of EUR softness.

With market pricing in line with our economists’ terminal rate expectations, we see EUR/USD as more exposed to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade recent softness on ECB reasons alone.

At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.

Forex

Sell euro rallies around the ECB meeting – Citi

Published

14 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Investing.com – The European Central Bank holds its latest policy-setting meeting later this week, and Citigroup advises selling any rallies in the euro around this key event.

Markets are pricing in around 49 basis points of easing over the remaining two ECB meetings this year, which could limit dovish repricing around Thursday’s event, according to analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 15.

“We see scope for a tactical bounce in EUR around this Thursday’s ECB meeting, which we like fading into November as US election risk premium materializes,” Citi said.

That said, “we like fading any subsequent rallies in EUR as we approach November and US election risk premium gets better priced.”

There is some evidence of this unfolding, the bank added, as EUR looks undervalued on its short-term fair value model and as Citi’s FX Positioning data suggests adding to EUR shorts.

“But our broader FX election basket still screens as undervalued relative to Trump betting markets, and we remain short EURUSD in both spot and options,” says Citi. “We would look to sell any retest of the 1.10 double top neckline — any break above there risks a move towards our adjusted stop of 1.1050, but if that resistance holds, we have higher conviction of a move towards our (and the double top) target of 1.08, with potential overshoot towards 1.07.”

At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), traded largely flat at 1.0892, almost 2% lower over the last month.

Forex

Dollar gains on trimmed rate expectations; sterling weakens post inflation

Published

14 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, trading near two-month peaks on expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while sterling slumped after benign inflation data.

At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.180, remaining close to Monday’s two-month peak.

Dollar helped by trimmed rate cut expectations

Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.

Adding to these expectations were comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President on Tuesday, who said he had penciled in just one more interest rate reduction of 25 basis points this year when he updated his projections for last month’s U.S. central bank meeting.

Most market participants see two more cuts this year, totaling 50 bps, and traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.

Sterling slumps after inflation release

In Europe, slumped 0.5% to 1.3003, after data showed British inflation fell more than expected in September, paving the way for a rate cut next month.

The UK’s fell to 1.7% on an annual basis, below the forecast 1.9% and the 2.2% recorded a month earlier.

This was the first time it had fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, and added to data seen earlier in the week that showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years.

“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year (November and December),” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Given the comments by Governor Andrew Bailey earlier this month suggesting the BoE could increase the pace of easing, markets may be tempted to price in some chance of a 50bp rate cut in November.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.0882, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.

The has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.

“EUR/USD is predominantly driven by external factors. The substantial drop in oil prices has narrowed the scope for a further drop based on market factors, but we continue to suspect that pre-US election positioning should favor a weaker EUR/USD,” said ING.

Yuan nurses weekly losses

fell slightly to 7.1179, with the yuan nursing losses this week as sentiment soured over the country’s plans for more stimulus.

China’s Ministry of Finance said it will enact a slew of fiscal measures to boost growth, but did not specify the timing or size of the planned measures, spurring uncertainty over its effectiveness.

rose 0.2% to 149.43, with the pair climbing closer to the 150 resistance level.

data due later this week is expected to offer more cues on the Bank of Japan’s plans to hike rates further.