Forex
Euro expected to hold ground despite political tremors: Reuters poll
By Sarupya Ganguly
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The euro will weaken modestly against the U.S. dollar this month before strengthening by year-end, despite financial markets pricing two more European Central Bank interest rate cuts by then, according to currency strategists polled by Reuters.
Having generally underperformed analyst expectations in Reuters surveys over the past year, the euro has fallen more than 1% since French President Emmanuel Macron called for a surprise snap election on June 9.
It then gained only slightly as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected, despite firmly emerging ahead of the pack after the election’s first round on June 30.
Still, the euro, which is down more than 2.5% against the dollar so far this year, would show resilience against a backdrop of heightened political uncertainty in the second-largest European Union member, according to currency strategists in a June 28-July 3 Reuters poll.
The median forecast for how far it could fall this month was $1.06, about 1.5% below where it was trading on Wednesday.
“If not for the French election dynamic in the background, we would have expected the euro to be much higher than where it is at the moment,” said Dan Tobon, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy at Citi.
“But based on where the polls and market expectations are, we don’t really see a lot of downside left,” Tobon added.
Further ahead, the poll showed the euro strengthening in three months’ time and by the year-end, even though the ECB was predicted in a separate poll to follow up its June rate cut with two more this year – in September and December.
The median projection from nearly 80 foreign exchange strategists was for the euro to gain nearly 1.5% to $1.09 by the end of this year and to trade at $1.10 at the end of the first half of 2025.
Back in January, the euro was seen climbing to $1.12 by the end of this year, but since then the resilience of the U.S. economy has made financial markets scale back their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, bolstering the dollar.
Economists in a separate Reuters survey predicted two U.S. rate cuts this year, but flagged one, or even no rate cuts as a sizeable risk, which could put the euro under pressure.
“Markets may be over-pricing Fed rate cuts and in the short term, rate cuts elsewhere too …There certainly is a risk we see more dollar strength than we’re currently forecasting,” said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.
The dollar has gained more than 4% against a basket of major currencies since January, defying expectations it would weaken that were prevalent at the start of the year.
Japan’s yen, down about 13% for the year to a 38-year low of 161.97 to the dollar on Wednesday, will be the biggest gainer among major currencies by year-end rising 6.5% to 152, the poll found.
So far, Tokyo has primarily relied on market interventions to support the yen, but when asked what the authorities could do to arrest its decline over the coming three months, most analysts said the Bank of Japan would need to hike interest rates aggressively.
“The longer (authorities) wait to take the field, the heavier the intervention has to be,” said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at UniCredit.
(For other stories from the July Reuters foreign exchange poll click here)
Forex
Dollar bounces after sharp loss; euro retreats on Lagarde comment
Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Monday, rebounding after the sharp losses at the end of last week on signs of cooling inflationary pressures, while the euro slipped following dovish comments from ECB head Christine Lagarde.
At 05:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% higher to 107.750, after falling sharply from a two-year high on Friday.
Dollar bounces after sharp retreat
The dollar bounced Monday after falling sharply on Friday as the Federal Reserve’s preferred showed moderate monthly rises in prices, with a measure of underlying inflation posting its smallest gain in six months.
That eased some concerns about how much the may cut in 2025, which had risen following the hawkish US rate outlook after the last Fed policy meeting of the year.
That said, traders are pricing in 38 basis points of rate cuts next year, shy of the two 25 bp rate cuts the Fed projected last week, with the market pushing the first easing of 2025 out to June, with a cut in March priced at around 53%.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Eurozone “very close” to ECB inflation goal
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0414, near a two-year low it touched in November, down 5.5% this year, after European Central Bank President said the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“We’re getting very close to that stage when we can declare that we have sustainably brought inflation to our medium-term 2%,” Lagarde said in an interview published by the Financial Times on Monday.
Earlier in December, Lagarde had said the central bank would cut interest rates further if inflation continued to ease towards its 2% target, as curbing growth was no longer necessary.
The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.
traded largely flat at 1.2571, after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, adding to the signs of an economic slowdown.
The Office for National Statistics lowered its estimate for the change in output to 0.0% in the July-to-September period from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth.
The ONS also cut its estimate for growth in the second quarter to 0.4% from a previous 0.5%.
policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.
Yuan hits one-year high
In Asia, rose 0.2% to 156.72, after rising as far as 158 last week following dovish signals from the .
The BOJ signaled that it was not considering interest rate hikes in the near-term despite a recent pick-up in inflation, and could raise rates by as late as March 2025.
edged 0.2% higher to 7.3080, hitting a one-year high as traders continued to fret over China’s economic outlook. While Beijing is expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to support the economy, looser monetary conditions are expected to undermine the yuan.
Forex
Asia FX muted, dollar slips from 2-yr high on soft inflation data
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved little on Monday, while the dollar steadied from a tumble from over two-year highs after soft U.S. inflation data spurred some hopes that interest rates will still fall in 2025.
Asian currencies were nursing steep losses against the dollar from last week, although they trimmed some declines on Friday after the soft inflation data. The outlook for regional markets also remains clouded by uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and policy under incoming President Donald Trump.
Dollar slips from 2-yr high as PCE data misses expectations
The and both steadied on Monday after clocking sharp losses on Friday.
The greenback slid from an over two-year peak after data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- read softer-than-expected on Friday.
Still, the reading remained above the Fed’s 2% annual target, keeping uncertainty over interest rates in play.
The Fed had cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, but flagged a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year, citing concerns over sticky inflation and resilience in the labor market.
The Fed is expected to cut rates twice in 2025, although the path of rates still remains uncertain.
Markets took some relief from the government avoiding a shutdown after lawmakers approved an eleventh-hour spending bill.
Asia FX pressured by rate uncertainty
Despite clocking some gains on Friday, most Asian currencies were still trading lower for December, as the outlook for interest rates remained uncertain.
The Japanese yen’s pair rose 0.1% to around 156.59 yen, after rising as far as 158 yen last week following dovish signals from the Bank of Japan.
The BOJ signaled that it was not considering interest rate hikes in the near-term despite a recent pick-up in inflation, and could raise rates by as late as March 2025.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, hitting a one-year high as traders continued to fret over China’s economic outlook. While Beijing is expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to support the economy, looser monetary conditions are expected to undermine the yuan.
The Singapore dollar’s pair was flat ahead of inflation data due later in the day, while the South Korea’s won’s pair rose 0.3%.
The Australian dollar’s pair rose slightly after sinking to a two-year low last week.
The Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting a record high of over 85 rupees last week.
Forex
Dollar to weaken less than expected next year: UBS
Investing.com — The dollar recently notched fresh year-to-date highs against its rivals and is likely to remain strong after the Federal Reserve leaned more hawkish at its recent December meeting, analysts from UBS said in a recent note.
“While we still expect the dollar to fall, we now see less weakness in 2025 given these factors and adjust our forecasts slightly,” analysts from UBS said in a recent note.
The less bearish view on the USD comes in the wake of the greenback making fresh year-to-date highs in key exchange rates and the expectations for fewer U.S. rate cuts.
“The USD has been driven lately by prospects of fewer Fed rate cuts and tariff risks,” the analysts said.
The euro has been particularly affected by dollar strength, but is expected to trade around $1.05 against the greenback in the first half of 2025, the analysts forecast.
But a significant drop toward parity for the can’t be ruled out, “due to real tariff threats or further divergence in the macro backdrop between the US and Europe,” the analysts added.
Still, any move toward parity should be short-lived, the analysts said, amid expectations for the economic backdrop in Europe to improve in the second half of the year, narrowing the divergence between Europe and U.S. yields.
“The trajectory back into the middle of the trading range or higher, 1.08 to 1.10, comes with the view that two-year yield differentials will still narrow to some degree and better macro data out of Europe provide some underlying support for EURUSD in 2H25,” the analysts said.
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