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Forex

Euro nudges higher; China stimulus boosts Aussie and kiwi

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By Tom Westbrook and Alun John

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -The euro strengthened on Monday after German inflation data, while commodity currencies rose on hopes for a turnaround in China’s economy and the Japanese yen steadied as traders reacted to the new prime minister’s call for a snap election.

Setting the broader tone for these moves was the U.S. dollar, which hovered near a one-year low against a basket of peers.

This week it will be shaped by non-farm payrolls data on Friday that will give the latest indication on the health of the U.S. economy, and the scale of rate cuts required in the next few months.

Expectations of significant U.S. monetary easing this year, which the Federal Reserve met with a recent 50-basis-point rate reduction, have sent the dollar lower against most majors in recent weeks.

The euro was at $1.1194, up 0.3% on the day, and strengthening a fraction after German inflation data showed price pressures were easing, though not as significantly as last week’s figures from France and Spain. Bloc wide data is due Tuesday.

The common currency was steady on the day against the pound at 83.43 pence.

That French and Spanish data price data, along with the latest signs of weak economic growth, caused several big investment banks to change their European Central Bank calls last week to include an October rate cut as well as the widely expected December move.

That meant the European common currency has weakened against most peers, and held steady against the U.S. dollar, even given Beijing’s economic stimulus measures that would normally be euro-positive due to the currency bloc’s trade ties with China.

“That inflation data last week gives the ECB the justification to deliver back-to-back rate cuts in October and December, and that’s certainly helping dampen the upside for the euro against the dollar from the China optimism that’s coming into the market,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst, MUFG.

CHINA GROWTH HOPES

Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit 2024 highs as rate cuts and expectations of fiscal support in China raised hopes of an improvement in the slowing economy and drove gains in Chinese markets and everything exposed to China’s growth.

The Australian dollar hit a 20-month high of $0.6941, and the New Zealand dollar rose to $0.6375, its highest level in 14-1/2 months. [AUD/]

Both units gained on European currencies, with the euro falling as low as A$1.6082 to its lowest on the since mid-July.

The Japanese yen was also in focus as Shigeru Ishiba – a former defence minister and erstwhile critic of aggressively easy policy – who last week won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party said he would call a general election for Oct. 27.

The yen surged on Friday, and edged out to a one-week high of 141.65 per dollar in the Asian hours, but further moves were limited as Ishiba told public broadcaster NHK that from the government’s standpoint, policy must remain accommodative as a trend, given economic conditions.

Analysts said that was enough to pause the sharp rise in the yen following his victory and that a snap election could weigh on the yen at least over the short term.

“An election basically takes the Bank of Japan out of the equation until December … a marginal yen negative,” said Ray Attrill, National Australia Bank (OTC:)’s head of foreign exchange strategy.

The dollar was last up 0.17% at 142.45 yen.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo

Beijing’s raft of stimulus measures drove a rally in last week, despite interest rates being lowered, as investors piled into Chinese stocks that notched their best week in a decade. The yuan broke the psychological 7-per-dollar mark in offshore trade on Friday though it hovered at 7.0125 in onshore trade on Monday. [CNY/]

Sterling was sitting out of most of the drama, up 0.2% on the dollar at $1.3402 and the Swiss franc softened, with the euro up 0.65% at 0.9439 francs, and the dollar 0.3% higher at 0.8429.

Forex

Asia FX fragile with dollar upbeat ahead of PCE data; yen hits 5-mth low

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday with the Japanese yen recovering marginally from a five-month low as strong inflation data only partially offset a dovish outlook for the Bank of Japan.

Regional currencies were pressured by a broad push into the dollar, which hit an over one-year high after the Federal Reserve flagged a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. The greenback remained well-bid even as markets positioned for a potential U.S. government shutdown. 

The and rose marginally in Asian trade, and were at their strongest levels since November 2023. Focus is now on key data due later on Friday for more cues on interest rates. 

The Chinese yuan weakened to a more-than one-year low after Beijing left a key lending rate unchanged.

Yen rises from 5-mth low on strong CPI; BOJ outlook dovish 

The Japanese yen was among the better performers on Friday, with the pair falling 0.2% as inflation data for November read slightly stronger than expected.

But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, with USDJPY having surged to 157.93 yen- its highest level since late-July. 

While strong CPI data did further the case for an eventual rate hike by the Bank of Japan, comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025. 

The central bank and signaled that inflation will continue to rise. But Ueda’s comments on watching springtime labor wage negotiations suggested that a hike may not come until at least March. 

Recent weakness in the yen also spurred renewed speculation over government intervention, after ministers made a verbal warning on yen weakness. 

Chinese yuan at 1-yr low; PBOC leaves loan prime rate unchanged 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.2%, hitting its highest level since November 2023.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.

Looser monetary policy has also provided limited support to the Chinese economy over the past year, with Beijing expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to boost growth. 

Broader Asian currencies mostly weakened on Friday, and were nursing steep declines this week as traders remained biased towards the dollar. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and remained at a two-year low, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% and was close to its highest point in nearly 15 years. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair was flat, while the Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting a record high above 85 rupees earlier this week. 

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Forex

Dollar strengthens as market digests Fed’s hawkish cut

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By Chibuike Oguh, Harry Robertson and Rae Wee

NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar hovered near its two-year high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and signaled a much slower monetary policy easing trajectory in 2025, while the yen weakened against the greenback after the Bank of Japan held rates steady.

The dollar edged higher from losses early in the session after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. third quarter GDP showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate.

The number validated the Federal Reserve’s cautious new take-it-slow approach to easing, as did a bigger-than-expected fall in the number of applications for unemployment insurance to 220,000 last week.

Currencies around the world tumbled on Wednesday after the Fed decision sent yields higher and boosted the dollar, although many rebounded on Thursday in choppy trading conditions with thin volumes ahead of the holiday period.

The , which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, reached as high as 108.480 on the session, topping the 108.180 it reached in the prior session, which is its highest level since November 2022. It was last up 0.08% to 108.360.

The week has been chock-a-block with the last central bank policy meetings of 2024. The BOJ kept interest rates steady as expected, but the yen fell sharply as Governor Kazuo Ueda gave little away in a post-meeting press conference.

The dollar rose 1.63% against the yen to 157.55, trading at its highest levels since July.

“The main focus has been on the central bank decisions, which were very dollar supportive overall. The Fed had a hawkish cut and the Bank of Japan delivered a dovish hold, and those were probably the main two drivers,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.

Investors had been looking out for hints of imminent BOJ tightening, particularly after the Fed struck a hawkish tone at its meeting a day earlier.

But the governor reiterated that policymakers would need more time to assess incoming economic data and the implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

The fallout from the Fed continued to ripple across financial markets after traders heavily dialed back on easing expectations next year.

The euro, which tumbled 1.34% on Wednesday, managed to claw back some losses and was last 0.16% higher at $1.036650.

“Since the election interest rate expectations in the U.S. have gone up, but outside the U.S. they’ve gone down whether you look at ECB or you know most other central banks,” said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard (NYSE:) in New York.

“And that leads to dollar strengthening as those interest rate differentials widen in favor of the U.S. So I think you should expect more dollar strengthening because I don’t believe the interest rate markets or the currency markets have fully priced in the implications of tariffs.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75% as expected on Thursday. Sterling dipped, weakening 0.58% to $1.25.

The Canadian dollar sank to its lowest in more than four years at 1.44 per U.S. dollar. The South Korean won tumbled to its weakest level in 15 years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, sending global stocks plunging and bond yields spiking. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 7.2 basis points to 4.57%.

The Swedish and Norwegian crowns both rebounded against the dollar on Thursday, after Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates but Norway’s Norges Bank held them steady.

The Swedish crown strengthened 1% versus the dollar to 11.026, while the Norwegian krone pared earlier gains and was down 0.58% to 11.45.

The dropped to a two-year low before also ticking up. Data on Thursday showed that New Zealand’s economy sank into a recession in the third quarter. The currency was last up 0.16% versus the greenback to $0.5632.

Australia’s dollar bottomed at $0.6199, a two-year low, but was last up around 0.37%.

Currency bid prices at 19 December​ 09:21 p.m. GMT              

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Dollar index 108.4 108.26 0.13% 6.93% 108.48 107.81

Euro/Dollar 1.0362 1.0351 0.1% -6.12% $1.0422 $1.0348

Dollar/Yen 157.34 154.75 1.67% 11.55% 157.77 154.5

Euro/Yen 163.04​ 160.26 1.73% 4.76% 163.8 159.87

Dollar/Swiss 0.8984 0.901 -0.32% 6.72% 0.9022 0.895

Sterling/Dollar 1.2496 1.2574 -0.6% -1.79% $1.2665 $1.2497​

Dollar/Canadian 1.4389 1.4449 -0.4% 8.55% 1.4466 1.4346

Aussie/Dollar 0.6238 0.6218 0.33% -8.49% $0.6265 $0.6199

Euro/Swiss 0.9308 0.9328 -0.21% 0.24% 0.9355 0.9307

Euro/Sterling 0.8289 0.823 0.72% -4.36% 0.8293 0.8223

NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.563 0.5624 0.18% -10.84% $0.5662 0.5608

Dollar/Norway 11.448​ 11.3836 0.56% 12.95% 11.4594 11.2839

Euro/Norway 11.8616 11.7879 0.63% 5.68% 11.877 11.754

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

Dollar/Sweden 11.0294 11.1267 -0.87% 9.56% 11.1366 10.9966

Euro/Sweden 11.4289 11.5226 -0.81% 2.73% 11.5355 11.4276

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Dollar set for weekly gains ahead of key inflation release

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Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Friday, pausing for breath after strong gains this week as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 107.960, after earlier this week climbing to a two-year high.

Dollar on course for weekly gains

The has slipped slightly Friday, but is still on course of weekly gains of around 1%, bolstered by a relatively hawkish US rate outlook after the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year earlier this week.

The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, a likely two cuts of 25 basis points, instead of the four reductions indicated in the previous forecasts in September. 

The November is expected to rise 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.8% the prior month, while the monthly figure is seen climbing 0.2%, a slip from 0.3% in October. 

A stronger-than-expected rise in the core PCE index could have an outsized impact on markets, as the hawkish nature of the Fed’s comments has shifted the likelihood towards fewer or potentially no further reductions next year.

“Market pricing moved hawkishly and towards our view of just one further 25 bps cut outlined in our team’s 2025 outlook,” analysts from Macquarie said in a note.

Sterling near one-month low after weak retail sales

In Europe, traded largely flat at 1.2500, after falling on Thursday to a one-month low after Bank of England policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.

Data released earlier Friday showed that British rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, below the expected jump of 0.5%.

rose 0.2% higher to 1.0385, just off a one-month low, and still on track for a weekly drop of over 1% on the back of the dollar’s strength.

rose unexpectedly in November, increasing by 0.1% on the year, instead of the 0.3% decline predicted, while the business climate index in Germany’s retail sector fell slightly, the Ifo Institute said on Friday.

This year was very challenging for the retail sector and the overall economic environment is likely to remain difficult in 2025, “even though many retailers are hoping for an improvement in consumer sentiment,” said Ifo expert Patrick Hoeppner.

The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.

Yen helped by CPI data

In Asia, fell 0.4% to 156.74, as for November read slightly stronger than expected, strengthening the case for an eventual rate hike by the .

But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025. 

edged 0.1% higher to 7.3050, hitting its highest level since November 2023.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.

 

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