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Explainer-What would Japanese intervention to boost the weak yen look like?

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Explainer-What would Japanese intervention to boost the weak yen look like?
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Light is cast on a U.S. one-hundred dollar bill next to a Japanese 10,000 yen note in this picture illustration shot February 28, 2013. REUTERS/Shohei Miyano/Illustration/File Photo

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japanese authorities are facing renewed pressure to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen, as investors eye prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates while the Bank of Japan remains wedded to its super low interest rate policy.

Aside from verbal intervention, Japan’s government has several options to stem what it considers excessive yen falls. Among them is to intervene directly in the currency market, buying large amounts of yen, usually selling dollars for the Japanese currency.

Below are details on how yen-buying intervention could work, the likelihood of this happening and challenges of such a move:

LAST YEN-BUYING INTERVENTION?

Japan bought yen in September, its first foray in the market to boost its currency since 1998, after a Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy drove the yen as low as 145 per dollar. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94.

WHY STEP IN?

Yen-buying intervention is rare. Far more often the Ministry of Finance has sold yen to prevent its rise from hurting the export-reliant economy by making Japanese goods less competitive overseas.

But yen weakness is now seen as problematic, with Japanese firms having shifted production overseas and the economy heavily reliant on imports for goods ranging from fuel and raw materials to machinery parts.

WHAT HAPPENS FIRST?

When Japanese authorities escalate their verbal warnings to say they “stand ready to act decisively” against speculative moves, that is a sign intervention may be imminent.

Rate checking by the BOJ, when central bank officials call dealers and ask for buying or selling rates for the yen, is seen by traders as a possible precursor to intervention.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has recently said authorities “won’t rule out any options” to deal with excessive currency volatility, and that they were watching currency moves with a “strong sense of urgency.”

LINE IN THE SAND?

Authorities say they look at the speed of yen falls, rather than levels, and whether the moves are driven by speculators, to determine whether to step into the currency market.

The dollar is already within striking distance of the 150-yen level seen by markets as authorities’ line in the sand. If that line breaks, many market players see 151.94 yen, where Japan last intervened, as the next threshold, then 155.

WHAT’S THE TRIGGER?

The decision is highly political. When public anger over the weak yen and a subsequent rise in the cost of living is high, that puts pressure on the administration to respond. This was the case when Tokyo intervened last year.

But while inflation remains above the BOJ’s 2% target, public pressure has declined as fuel and global commodity prices have fallen from last year’s peaks.

If the yen’s slide accelerates and draws the ire of media and public, the chance of intervention would rise again.

The decision would not be easy. Intervention is costly and could easily fail, given that even a large burst of yen buying would pale next to the $7.5 trillion that change hands daily in the foreign exchange market.

HOW WOULD IT WORK?

When Japan intervenes to stem yen rises, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising yen it then sells to weaken the Japanese currency.

To support the yen, however, the authorities must tap Japan’s foreign reserves for dollars to sell for yen.

In either case, the finance minister issues the order to intervene, and the BOJ executes the order as the ministry’s agent.

CHALLENGES?

Yen-buying intervention is more difficult than yen-selling.

While Japan holds nearly $1.3 trillion in foreign reserves, which could be substantially eroded if Tokyo intervened heavily repeatedly, leavuing authorities constrained over how long they can defend the yen.

Japanese authorities also consider it important to seek the support of Group of Seven partners, notably the United States if the intervention involves the dollar.

Washington gave tacit approval when Japan intervened last year, reflecting recent close bilateral relations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month that whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan “depends on the details” of the situation.

Forex

Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan

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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.

At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.

“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”

The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.

Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.

That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.

The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar. 

“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.

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Rupee ends nearly flat as cenbank absorbs importers’ dollar demand

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By Nimesh Vora

MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee ended at its record closing low on Thursday, but was little changed versus the previous session, as the central bank’s intervention helped negate the incessant dollar demand from importers.

The rupee ended at 83.9825 to the U.S. dollar compared to 83.9650 in the previous session. Intraday volatility was muted, similar to the activity in recent sessions, with the local currency trading in a 2 paisa range.

The Reserve Bank of India yet again sold dollars to support the rupee, which prevented it from slipping past the crucial 84 level.

“The RBI was at it through most of today’s session. There is obviously just no way of knowing when the RBI will decide that it has had enough of defending 84,” a currency trader at a bank said.

The rupee needed the central bank’s help even on a day when the dollar was weak across the board.

Weak U.S. job opening data pushed the odds of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut this month higher to 45%, prompting traders to dump the dollar.

“The rupee today completely disregarded the dollar’s decline, like it has been doing for a number of weeks now,” Kunal Kurani, associate vice president at Mecklai Financial said.

“Now let’s see whether Friday’s (U.S.) job report will change things.”

© Reuters. An attendant at a fuel station arranges Indian rupee notes in Kolkata, India, August 16, 2018. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo

August’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data is being considered the most important jobs report in a long time in the wake of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that further weakening in the labour market will not be welcome.

Friday’s report will decide whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at the Sept 17-18 meeting. Right now, the futures market indicates that it is a toss-up.

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Forex

Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action

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By Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.

The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.

The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.

“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.

The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.

Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.

Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.

At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.

“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.

Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.

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