Forex

Fed’s Harker Says FOMC Should ‘at Least Skip’ June Rate Hike

Published

2 years ago

June 2, 2023

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said the US central bank is close to the point where it can stop raising interest rates and turn to holding them steady in an effort to further bring down inflation.

“I do believe that we are close to the point where we can hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work to bring inflation back to the target in a timely manner,” Harker said Thursday during a virtual event with the National Association for Business Economics.

The Philadelphia Fed chief repeated comments from the day before that he’d favor not raising rates at the June meeting, even if officials would then need to increase them again at later meetings.

“I think we should pause, because pause says we’re going to hold for a while — and we might,” he said. “We should at least skip this meeting in terms of an increase. We can let some of these things resolve themselves, at least to the extent they can, before we consider — at all — another increase.”

The Fed has raised rates by 5 percentage points in the past 14 months as it tries to cool inflation. The rapid clip of that tightening has prompted policymakers to say that they may take a pause at their June 13-14 meeting to give the economy time to digest the rate increases.

Harker emphasized that the economic outlook is uncertain and that he’ll assess incoming data to determine whether additional tightening is needed.

Harker, who votes on policy this year, said inflation is still “way above” the Fed’s 2% target. Though down from a peak of 7% reached a year ago, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price changes edged up in April, to 4.4% from 4.2%, Commerce Department data showed last week.

“Disinflation is under way, but it is doing so at a disappointingly slow pace,” Harker said.

He said the labor market is effectively at full employment, but that tighter credit conditions, especially following the collapse of four banks this spring, may slow hiring.

Some of the central bank’s more hawkish members have said more hikes may be necessary at future meetings to fully bring down prices.

In an essay Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, said he believes interest rates are at the low end of what’s likely to be sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation.

He said monetary policy is in better shape today than it was a year ago, but that “continued vigilance is required” as disinflation is not guaranteed.

Forex

Dollar edges lower as yields slips; hefty annual gain likely

Published

13 hours ago

December 31, 2024

Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Monday, as US bond yields retreated, but remained near recent highs as the end of the year draws near.

At 04:5 ET (09:55 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 107.690.

However, the index was still on course for monthly gains of over 2%, bringing year-to-date gains to almost 7%.

Dollar on course for hefty annual gains

The dollar has been helped by rising US Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting a more than seven-month high last week. This yield, however, slipped by to 4.599% on Monday.

The election of Donald Trump as the new president also gave the dollar a boost as his policies of looser regulation, tax cuts, tariff hikes and tighter immigration are seen as both pro-growth and inflationary, and are likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates rapidly next year.

The US central bank projected just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025 at its last policy meeting of the year earlier this month, and markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025.

Trading ranges are likely to be tight this holiday-impacted week, and the focus will be on weekly numbers on Thursday and data a day later, as well as comments from FOMC member .

Euro gains after Spanish inflation

In Europe, rose 0.1% to 1.0439, bouncing slightly after data showed that Spain’s annual EU-harmonized rose to 2.8% in December, up from the 2.4% figure recorded in November.

The cut interest rates earlier this month and signaled more cuts ahead as economic growth in the region stagnates.

However, the next interest rate cut could be longer in coming after a recent uptick in inflation, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann was quoted as saying on Saturday.

accelerated in November to 2.2% from 2.0% a month earlier and above the ECB’s 2% target rate.

traded 0.1% higher to 1.2595, with little in the way of UK economic data to study ahead of Thursday’s release.

That is expected to show that the country’s manufacturing sector remained firmly in contraction in December, after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter.

Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold at the meeting earlier this month, a more dovish split than expected, suggesting rate cuts will continue next year.

Yen remains weak; risk of intervention supports

In Asia, traded largely flat at 157.76, around five-month highs for the pair, with only the risk of Japanese intervention preventing another test of the 160 level last seen in July.

The signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes after the central bank held interest rates steady at 0.25% at this month’s meeting.

rose 0.2% to 7.3136, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.

Forex

Dollar slips, but on track for hefty gains in 2024

Published

13 hours ago

December 31, 2024

Investing.com – The US dollar edged lower Tuesday, but was still on course to record hefty gains in 2024 given the more cautious stance by the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts and expectations for the incoming Donald Trump administration.

At 05:35 ET (10:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 107.830, but remains just below the two-year high seen earlier this month.

The index was still on course for monthly gains of around 1.5%, bringing year-to-date gains to almost 7%.

Dollar in demand

The Fed’s recent signal of fewer cuts in 2025 has provided renewed strength to the dollar, pushing the benchmark to a more than seven-month high last week.

The US central bank projected just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025 at its last policy meeting of the year earlier this month, a sharp reduction from the four cuts it had indicated in September.

Trading volumes are likely to be limited Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s holiday, and the focus will then be on weekly numbers and data later in the week, as well as comments from FOMC member .

Euro looks to ECB rate cuts

In Europe, edged higher to 1.0409, trading in a tight range with the German market on holiday.

The pair is set for a decline of just under 6% this year, with the likely to cut interest rates more sharply than the Federal Reserve in 2025.

The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and signaled more cuts ahead as economic growth in the region stagnates, while the US central bank recently cut its projection for rate reductions in the new year.

The eurozone economy could also suffer from President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies, given the prospect of tariff hikes and the potential of a trade war.

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2539, moving in a tight trading range ahead of Thursday’s release.

That is expected to show that the country’s manufacturing sector remained firmly in contraction in December, after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter.

Chinese manufacturing activity expands in December

In Asia, rose 0.6% to 7.3443, after China’s expanded for a third straight month in December as a raft of fresh stimulus measures continued to provide support, purchasing managers index data showed on Tuesday.

However, the rise was slightly lower than market expectations and below the previous month’s reading.

Markets are holding out for more clarity on Beijing’s plans for stimulus measures in the coming year. Recent reports suggested that the country will ramp up fiscal spending to support economic growth.

traded 0.1% higher to 156.92 on Tuesday after it reached a five-month high in the previous session, with the pair up more than 11% over the course of the year.

The signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes after the central bank held interest rates steady at 0.25% at this month’s meeting.

Forex

Asia FX set for yearly losses as strong dollar weighs; China factory data in focus

Published

13 hours ago

December 31, 2024

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies edged lower on Tuesday and headed for yearly losses as the dollar remained strong heading into 2025, while the Chinese yuan weakened after data showed the country’s factory activity expanding at a slower pace.

The was 0.1% weaker in Asian trade but remained near a 2-year high it touched earlier in the month. The also ticked lower.

Asian currencies have weakened sharply this year as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, and fears about a potential U.S-China trade war under Donald Trump’s administration, have eroded risk sentiment.

The Fed’s recent signal of fewer cuts in 2025 has provided renewed strength to the dollar and created downward pressure on Asian currencies.

Chinese yuan slips as factory activity expands at a slower-than-expected pace

The Chinese yuan’s onshore pair rose 0.2% on Tuesday, while the offshore pair was largely unchanged.

China’s expanded for a third straight month in December as a raft of fresh stimulus measures continued to provide support, purchasing managers index data showed on Tuesday. However, the rise was slightly lower than market expectations and below the previous month’s reading.

Asian currencies set for yearly declines

The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.3% on Tuesday after it reached a five-month high in the previous session. The yen was set to lose more than 10% against the U.S. dollar for the year.

The Singapore dollar’s pair was largely unchanged but headed for a yearly rise.

The Australian dollar’s was slightly lower on Tuesday.

The Indian rupee’s pair inched up 0.1%, and was on track to rise more than 3% this year. The rupee has been hitting fresh record lows against the U.S. dollar this month.

The Thai baht’s pair rose 0.3%, while the Indonesian rupiah’s pair gained 0.2% on Tuesday.

South Korean won slips amid deepening political unrest

The South Korean won’s pair edged up 0.1% on Tuesday. The won has weakened nearly 6% against the U.S. Dollar in December, which saw a failed imposition of martial law in the country.

The won is the worst-performing currency amongst its Asian peers, tracking an over 12% decline in 2024.

In the latest updates, A South Korean court approved an arrest warrant on Tuesday for President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has been impeached and suspended from office following his December 3 decision to impose martial law.

The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) stated that the Seoul Western District Court granted the warrant sought by investigators probing Yoon’s brief imposition of martial law.