Forex
Further pressure on the US dollar is likely: UBS
Investing.com — The US dollar is expected to face increasing downward pressure in the coming months, despite a recent boost from stronger-than-anticipated economic data.
As per analysts at UBS, the outlook for the greenback remains bearish, driven by a combination of narrowing interest rate differentials, concerns about the growing US fiscal deficit, and shifting global monetary policies.
In light of these factors, UBS has downgraded the US dollar to “Least Preferred” in its global strategy, favoring currencies like the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar instead.
Thursday saw the US dollar gain some ground after the release of revised second-quarter GDP growth figures.
“Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP was revised upward to a 3.0% annualized growth rate from the previously reported 2.8%, driven mainly by stronger consumer spending,” the analysts said.
This revision was largely driven by stronger consumer spending, which also saw an upward adjustment to a 2.9% annualized rate from the initial 2.3%.
This positive data helped the US dollar recover slightly, but it remains under pressure. The has fallen by 3% over the past month and continues to hover near the lower end of its range since early 2023.
Despite this temporary reprieve, UBS analysts maintain that the broader outlook for the dollar is negative, with several factors likely to push it lower in the coming months.
One of the key factors expected to weigh on the US dollar is the anticipated narrowing of interest rate differentials.
The US Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates, with UBS projecting a total reduction of 100 basis points across the Fed’s three remaining meetings in 2024.
While other central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, are also expected to reduce rates, their approach is likely to be more measured.
This slower pace of cuts abroad could make the dollar less attractive compared to other currencies.
In addition to the interest rate outlook, concerns over the US fiscal deficit are expected to further erode confidence in the dollar. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that interest costs on US debt will surpass defense spending this year, highlighting the growing fiscal challenges facing the country.
As the US presidential race intensifies, with Vice President Kamala Harris currently leading in the polls, the fiscal deficit is likely to become a focal point of debate, potentially creating additional headwinds for the dollar.
Global monetary policy shifts also pose a challenge for the US dollar. For example, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its current policy stance until next year, which could add pressure on the dollar.
In contrast, the Swiss franc is expected to remain strong due to its safe-haven status and the Swiss National Bank’s anticipated conclusion of its easing cycle in September.
UBS forecasts that the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar will all strengthen against the US dollar by June 2025, with at 1.16, at 1.38, and at 0.70.
The anticipated weakening of the US dollar has significant implications for global markets. As the dollar depreciates, risk assets such as quality stocks are likely to become more attractive, particularly in an environment where the Federal Reserve is cutting rates.
UBS suggests that investors consider reallocating cash into high-quality bonds, especially those from investment-grade companies, to take advantage of the changing economic landscape.
Despite some signs of weakness in the US labor market, such as an uptick in unemployment in July, the overall picture remains resilient. Weekly jobless claims have declined, and consumer spending continues to show strength, alleviating fears of an immediate recession.
UBS maintains its base case for a soft landing for the US economy, supported by the expected rate cuts from the Fed.
By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
Forex2 years agoForex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Stock Markets2 years ago
Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China
