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If Trump, GOP win big on Tuesday, then sell euro, French bonds fast: expert

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Investing.com — The U.S. presidential election outcome may be too tight to call, but Charles Gave of Gavekal Research believes that if Republicans win big on Tuesday, then investors should sell the and the French bond market as quickly as possible as the single market’s economic woes are certain to deepen.

“I have no idea whether Trump and the Republicans really will win,” Gave said. “But I do know that if they do win, and win big, investors should sell the euro and the French bond market as quickly as they possibly can,” he added. 

The warning isn’t without a merit. The eurozone is already battling an economic crisis, with France, which faces ever growing deficits and debt, at the sharp end of investor worries.  

History also points to eerie parallels between the current situation and the 1980 U.S. election, Gave suggested, flagging Ronald Reagan’s 1984 victory, which spurred significant changes in economic policy.

A similar shift could occur if Republicans gain control of Congress, and former President Donald Trump wins the election and follows through with his tax cuts and plans to shrink the Federal government, then the return on invested capital at U.S. companies would likely increase as would borrowing. 

“Higher US long rates will also push up long rates in other big economies,” Gave said.

This will be a major problem in France, Gave warms, amid expanding deficits and debt  without the offsetting compensation of faster economic growth.

“Before long, France will be as bust as Latin America in 1982, Asia in 1997 or Greece in 2011,” he added.

Forex

Aussie dollar outlook hinges on US trade policy under Trump, says BofA

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Investing.com– There are three potential scenarios for the Australian dollar through mid-2025, contingent on U.S. policy under President-elect Trump, analysts at Bank of America (BofA) said in a note, stating a wide range of outcomes for the currency, reflecting uncertainties in global trade.

In BofA’s baseline scenario, the AUD is expected to weaken to 0.63 U.S. dollar (USD) by mid-2025. This forecast assumes a continuation of tariff-driven trade policies similar to Trump’s first term, alongside moderate gains in U.S. equities, with the projected to deliver double-digit returns.

A gradual increase in U.S.-China tariffs, coupled with a devaluation of the (CNY), is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the AUD. Industrial metals, a key driver for Australia’s economy, are also expected to decline, adding to the currency’s challenges.

BofA’s second, and a more severe scenario envisions a full-blown trade war, where tariffs significantly disrupt global trade. In this situation, the AUD could tumble to 0.55 USD, the bank warned. It cites, a sharp devaluation of the CNY and plummeting industrial metal prices, as major headwinds.

This scenario assumes broader global equity market declines and a more pronounced impact on Australian growth and inflation, potentially keeping the AUD below 0.60 USD for an extended period.

Thirdly, if the incoming administration adopts policies akin to Ronald Reagan’s 1980s approach—characterized by tax cuts, deregulation, and limited trade disruptions—the AUD could climb to 0.70 USD, BofA analysts said. Such policies could spur a rally in U.S. equities and stabilize the CNY, creating a favorable environment for the Australian currency.

BofA underscores the AUD’s heightened sensitivity to global risk sentiment and its evolving relationship with commodity prices and the CNY. Analysts emphasize that significant shifts in U.S. policy will likely dictate the trajectory of the AUD in the near term.

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UBS lowers USDJPY forecasts to 145 by end-2025 and end-2026

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Investing.com — UBS has revised its forecasts for the , lowering expectations to 145 for both end-2025 and end-2026, down from previous estimates of 157 and 161, respectively.

This adjustment reflects growing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ability to implement further rate hikes, aligning with UBS economists’ call for a 25 basis-point hike during the December 19 policy meeting.

“Rising confidence in the BOJ’s ability to hike rates further has been the key driver of the move,” UBS analysts noted, as the yen continues its recent outperformance against the dollar.

The revision to UBS’s USDJPY outlook also aligns with the bank’s broader FX trading views. The firm remains short , expecting it to decline to 151 by the end of 2025 and to 145 by the following year.

In the broader G10 FX market, UBS observed a period of stability in recent weeks, with the USD trading near mid-November highs.

This calm persisted despite President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff-related announcements on social media. While markets initially viewed these proclamations as a negotiation tactic, UBS warned that this sentiment might be “short-lived.”

Additionally, political uncertainty in Europe, including a no-confidence vote against the French government, could weigh on the euro.

“We see potential for a larger and more sustained impact now than in June, given the weaker growth backdrop and dovish ECB repricing,” UBS analysts explained. This situation supports their end-2025 target of 1.04.

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Dollar shows strength; euro retreats ahead of French no-confidence vote

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Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, while the euro retreated ahead of a vote of no-confidence in France later in the day that is likely to topple the fragile coalition government. 

At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 106.465. 

Dollar remains compelling

The dollar has been in demand Wednesday, boosted by its safe-haven status amid political turmoil in both South Korea and Europe as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

“A lame duck government in Germany and potentially France too today if a no-confidence vote is successful, plus this Korean news, will only add to confidence that the relatively high rates and liquidity make the dollar the most compelling currency in which to park cash balances right now,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Turning back to macro news, all eyes will be on the report for November later in the session, particularly with the widely watched monthly due for release on Friday. 

The release is also on the agenda, as well as a speech from Fed Chair in Washington.

“There is the risk that US macro data softens a little and can drag the dollar a little softer, but taking defensive positions in something like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc can be expensive,” ING added.

Market-implied odds of a quarter-point rate reduction on Dec. 18 last stood at 75%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Euro pressured by French political crisis

In Europe, dropped 0.1% to 1.0501, with the single currency struggling for support as the French political crisis comes to a head.

French lawmakers are preparing to vote on no-confidence motions later in the day that are all but certain to topple the government, with opposition parties seemingly unable to support Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s recent  budget aimed at curbing a hefty budget deficit.

Additionally, data released earlier Wednesday showed that business activity across the eurozone fell sharply last month as the bloc’s dominant sector joined the manufacturing sector in contraction territory.

HCOB’s final for the currency union, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, sank to 48.3 in November from October’s 50.0.

“Be it European political risk, weak activity, the threat of trade wars or energy prices creeping higher (EU gas inventories are starting to come under pressure) there are many reasons to be underweight in the euro,” ING said.

traded 0.1% higher to 1.2677, helped by remaining in expansion territory.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated in an interview published on Wednesday that gradual cuts in interest rates are likely over the next year, adding that the process of falling inflation is well embedded.

“There is still a distance to travel because although inflation came down to target over the summer, we’ve been saying for a while that … we were probably going to go back a bit above target,” Bailey said.

South Korean won stabilizes

In Asia, stabilized at 1,414.26, after surging as high as 1,444.05 won in overnight trade – its highest level since November 2022.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday in an effort to counter “anti-state forces” among his political opponents. However, the move faced immediate backlash, including parliamentary rejection and public protests, leading him to revoke the measure within hours.

The won also pared initial losses as South Korea’s central bank held an emergency meeting to stabilize the domestic market.

climbed 0.7% to 150.68, while slipped 0.2% to 7.2730, with the Chinese currency bouncing from the previous day’s low of 7.3145, the weakest since November of last year, helped by a stronger-than-expected central bank midpoint fixing. 

slumped 1% to 0.6421, falling to its lowest level since early August after data showed Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the third quarter, sparking increased bets that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates early in 2025.

 

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