Forex
In the Market: How the US is daring the world to find a dollar alternative
By Paritosh Bansal
(Reuters) -The United States is merrily chipping away at the pillars that hold up the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, with the latest blows coming from some powerful Americans questioning the rule of law following the conviction of Donald Trump.
In doing so, it is effectively daring the rest of the world to find an alternative – and so far, it appears to be winning.
The attacks on the legal system in the aftermath of former President Trump’s conviction follow other moves that are seen by some as the United States throwing down the gauntlet to the rest of the world.
The country has radically increased the use of sanctions as a punitive foreign policy tool. And it is adding on an immense amount of debt, leaving hapless foreigners who seek the safety and depth of its markets to fund its excesses.
Over the past three weeks, I have been asking financial services executives, global investors and other experts in Asia and the United States how long they think the Americans can keep at it without meaningful blowback. Several of the sources requested anonymity to speak candidly about the situation.
These conversations showed consternation is growing, both at home and abroad, about the consequences of U.S. hubris. But despite trying, no one so far has been able to find a credible alternative or expects one to emerge anytime soon, and they have partly themselves to blame.
In Asia, for example, people are asking with increasing urgency what’s their ‘America plus 1’, as they search for ways to reduce their U.S. exposure and boost non-dollar trade flows.
But attempts to build such systems are slow-going or haven’t gotten traction. And rising authoritarianism, threats to individual and property rights and geopolitical tensions have meant that even if U.S. assets are less attractive than they were before, other options are worse.
A recent survey, for example, shows central bank reserve managers plan to increase their dollar holdings over the next 12-24 months as the rise in global geopolitical tensions and need for liquidity draw them to the currency.
“Perhaps ironically, the U.S. dollar’s strength is, in part, due to its near-unchallenged safe-haven status,” said Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, who served on former President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. “That said, most investors don’t understand geopolitics and the dangers that lurk below the surface – until it’s too late.”
DOLLAR’S DOMINANCE
At its core, the dollar’s dominant role in the world draws from the United States’ democratic principles. It is supported by the massive size of its economy, the depth of its markets, and the strength of its institutions and the rule of law.
The belief in democracy runs deep. Last week, I asked U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has been in government since 1997, whether partisan politics had made the job of officials like him harder. A conservative-leaning U.S. appeals court had struck down one of his signature initiatives that morning.
“I believe in this constitutional system that we have. It’s messy,” Gensler said. “It’s democracy.”
Nevertheless, the messiness is testing some of the underpinnings of the dollar’s global appeal.
Attacks on the U.S. legal system have increased after the Trump verdict in a New York court. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, for example, called it a “kangaroo court” on the social media platform X, saying “the verdict represents the culmination of a legal process that has been bent to the political will of the actors involved.”
A major investor based in Asia said potential threats to U.S. institutions were also worrying. Any debasing of the Federal Reserve’s authority — as Trump allies are reportedly contemplating — would affect the dollar’s credibility, the investor said, adding that such a development could see a double-digit depreciation of the currency.
Trump’s campaign for his Republican presidential bid has played down such reports of what conservative groups might be planning.
THICKET OF SANCTIONS
A senior New York-based financial services executive who was traveling in Asia said he is hearing from clients who think the U.S. and Western financial policy is “undermining the dollar and the Western financial system more broadly.”
He pointed to an “ever expanding thicket of sanctions” as one reason.
And the West is pushing the envelope further. The financial executive said the discussion that the West might seize some $300 billion of sovereign Russian assets that were blocked over Ukraine undermined the United States’ safe haven status. “The West crossed a Rubicon there,” the executive said.
An October 2021 Treasury Department review of sanctions found such designations had increased to 9,421 by that year from 912 in 2000. It noted at the time that “American adversaries — and some allies — are already reducing” their use of the dollar.
An Asia-based investor said he was watching another court case closely to test the strength of the rule of law: ByteDance’s challenge of a U.S. ban on TikTok. He is watching for the evidence that the U.S. government would produce to back up claims of the app being a national security threat.
If no proof is publicly offered, then it would “feel that the checks and balance, the independence of the legal system, may not be there — at least in this case,” the investor said.
But then he added that even that may not turn him away from the United States. It’s still more independent and better than many other places, he said.
By Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar pulled back from a two-year high on Friday, but was heading for its third-straight week of gains, with data showing a slowdown in inflation two days after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and indicated inflation was stubborn enough to scale back cuts in 2025.
The dollar was down 0.72% against a basket of six other currencies at 107.64 after spiking as high as 108.54 – its highest level since November 2022. It was set to end the week 0.72% higher.
Commerce Department data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 0.1% in November after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October.
But in the 12 months through November, the PCE price index advanced 2.4%, compared with a 2.3% increase in the year to October.
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with officials indicating that fewer cuts were coming in 2025 as inflation remained above the targeted range despite its recent downward trajectory.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6.2 basis points to 4.51%, after hitting a 6-1/2-month high following the Fed’s rate decision.
“The inflation numbers today were more benign than feared; the Fed tilted its focus back towards inflation in this week’s meeting, and then the numbers weren’t so worrisome,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.
“I think the market heard the words of the Fed and got worried about inflation. But then the numbers show that it’s still slowing and certainly not at worrisome levels.
The U.S. government will begin a partial shutdown if Congress does not extend a deadline for a spending bill backed by President-elect Donald Trump to pass by midnight on Friday. The bill failed to pass in the House of Representatives on Thursday.
The dollar weakened 0.79% to 0.892 Swiss francs, on track for a weekly loss.
The euro edged higher after dipping to a one-month low of $1.03435 on the session, on track for its third-straight week of losses, weighed down partly by Trump’s comments that the European Union must purchase more U.S. oil and gas to make up for its “tremendous deficit” with the world’s largest economy, or face tariffs. It was last up 0.76% at $1.044175.
The dollar dropped to a five-month low of 157.93 Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. It was last down 0.89% at 156.01 yen.
Sterling dipped to a one-month low of $1.2475 but was last up 0.77% at $1.25990, still on track for a third straight week of losses. The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold on Thursday.
The dollar weakened 0.18% to 7.295 on the offshore market. The Australian dollar weakened 0.43% to $0.6263, while New Zealand’s dollar strengthened 0.53% to $0.566.
“You basically have an interest rate play between Wednesday’s Fed meeting and it’s not so much what they did, but the catalyst was the change in the economic projections for the Fed funds rate next year,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com.
“The market is seeing that the Fed is pulling back. I’ve long thought they would pause in January. I’m pretty sure they will.”
Currency bid prices at 20 December 06:57 p.m. GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 107.66 108.43 -0.7% 6.20% 108.54 107.58
Euro/Dollar 1.0438 1.0364 0.72% -5.43% $1.0445 $1.0344
Dollar/Yen 156.09 157.335 -0.77% 10.69% 157.875 155.975
Euro/Yen 162.93 163.13 -0.12% 4.69% 163.66 162.36
Dollar/Swiss 0.892 0.8987 -0.76% 5.97% 0.899 0.8917
Sterling/Dollar 1.2595 1.2503 0.76% -1.01% $1.2613 $1.2475
Dollar/Canadian 1.4361 1.4399 -0.25% 8.35% 1.4435 1.4336
Aussie/Dollar 0.6263 0.6238 0.46% -8.1% $0.6274 $0.6215
Euro/Swiss 0.9308 0.9312 -0.04% 0.24% 0.9319 0.9287
Euro/Sterling 0.8284 0.8287 -0.04% -4.43% 0.8313 0.8272
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.566 0.5631 0.55% -10.4% $0.5672 0.5615
Dollar/Norway 11.3073 11.4263 -1.04% 11.57% 11.4726 11.3077
Euro/Norway 11.8051 11.856 -0.43% 5.18% 11.892 11.8072
Dollar/Sweden 11.0032 11.0238 -0.19% 9.3% 11.0608 10.9884
Euro/Sweden 11.4869 11.4283 0.51% 3.25% 11.4929 11.431
By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar’s latest surge has forced central banks around the world to lean against it, selling greenback reserves to stabilise local currencies but potentially exaggerating dollar strength into the bargain and sowing problems down the line.
If hard cash reserves, typically banked in U.S. debt, are run down sharply, it may just aggravate Treasury yields higher at the margins and bolster one of the main reasons for dollar strength in the process. Until tightening Treasury yields eventually force foreign capital out of “exceptional” U.S. markets at large, the process could spiral from here.
The Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” on Wednesday provided the latest spur to the greenback by forcing markets to rethink the rate horizon next year and suspect the Fed’s new 4.38% policy rate may now not get back below 4% in the current cycle.
As U.S. Treasury yields climbed on both that hawkish message and higher Fed inflation forecasts, the dollar went with them – jarring many major emerging markets still dependent on significant dollar funding and fearful of promised tariff hikes from a Donald Trump White House.
The Fed’s own broad trade-weighted – up almost 40% over the past decade – is again stalking the record highs set in 2022, with the inflation-adjusted “real” index less than 2% from all-time highs too.
The latest twist has proven painful for many emerging economies in particular, with many coping with both looming trade threats and domestic crises.
Brazil is a standout, where the real has lost more than 20% of its value this year and 12% of that in the past three months – hit by rising budget concerns even in the face of a 100 basis point central bank rate rise this month.
The currency shock has forced the central bank to intervene in the open market and it sold $5 billion in a surprise second auction on Thursday – the largest of its kind since the Brazilian currency floated in 1999.
The central bank has now held six spot interventions since last week, selling a total of $13.75 billion, in addition to three dollar auctions with repurchase agreements of $7 billion.
But Brazil’s far from alone.
Exaggerated by a recent government crisis, South Korea’s won has dropped to its lowest in 15 years, while India’s rupee hit a record low and Indonesia’s rupiah struck a four-month trough.
All three central banks actively sold dollars on Thursday along with strong verbal warnings of further action.
China, which holds the world’s biggest hard cash stash and is the second biggest holder of Treasuries, is also suspected to have sold dollars on Thursday to shore up the yuan’s slide to 2024 lows.
According to JPMorgan, capital outflows from emerging economies excluding China were some $33 billion in October alone. Including China, it was $105 billion – the biggest monthly exit of money since June 2022 just before the U.S. election.
While flows stabilised just before this week’s Fed meeting, pressure is clearly back now into year-end.
“We could be moving into a new equilibrium – one where emerging market portfolio flows might struggle,” JPM analyst Katherine Marney told clients.
BALLOONING US LIABILITIES
But does it still matter for Treasuries if emerging market central banks pull back, with less demand for U.S. debt or even outright sales of notes and bonds?
Together, entities from China, Brazil, South Korea and India account for about $1.5 trillion of overseas holdings of Treasury Securities.
That might seem small against a total of $28 trillion outstanding marketable Treasury securities. What’s more, those tallies may flatter what are official holdings and dollars sold in intervention may not necessarily involve the rundown of debt securities per se.
But these countries are also likely not the only ones selling dollars into the new rally and the extent of any overall hit may yet affect demand for Treasuries at the margin at a sensitive time.
With U.S. debt and fiscal concerns already high surrounding an incoming Trump administration and the Fed, any additional spur to Treasury yields would only add to the pressure.
The more Treasury yields climb, the higher the dollar will probe and the overall heat from U.S. markets may start to scare the rest of the world that’s so now heavily invested there.
Perhaps the big question next year is the extent to which spiraling Treasury yields eventually puncture the expensive and crowded U.S. stock market. That could undermine the massive overseas inflow to an “exceptional” United States over the past decade and inflate the overvalued dollar.
That overwhelming foreign demand for U.S. securities and the vast outperformance of U.S. stock prices and the dollar over recent years has ballooned the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) to a deficit of $22.5 trillion by mid 2024, according to the latest figures.
That’s now some 77% of GDP – twice what it was 10 years ago.
U.S. liabilities increased by $1.4 trillion to a total of $58.52 trillion, due mainly to rising U.S. stock prices that lifted the value of portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities.
But some $391.1 billion of additional foreign purchases of U.S. stocks and long-term debt securities contributed to the liability increase.
Overall, portfolio investment liabilities increased $666 billion to $30.89 trillion and direct investment liabilities increased $568.2 billion to $16.64 trillion, mostly attributable to Wall Street gains.
All that has likely expanded further since June.
The lofty U.S. dollar and Wall Street prices – and seemingly ubiquitous bullishness about the outlook for 2025 – mean any disturbance to capital flows and exchange rates at this stage could seed a dangerous and largely unforecast market reversal on a grand scale.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
(by Mike Dolan X: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Sam Holmes)
Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Friday, pausing for breath after strong gains this week as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 107.960, after earlier this week climbing to a two-year high.
Dollar on course for weekly gains
The has slipped slightly Friday, but is still on course of weekly gains of around 1%, bolstered by a relatively hawkish US rate outlook after the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year earlier this week.
The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, a likely two cuts of 25 basis points, instead of the four reductions indicated in the previous forecasts in September.
The November is expected to rise 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.8% the prior month, while the monthly figure is seen climbing 0.2%, a slip from 0.3% in October.
A stronger-than-expected rise in the core PCE index could have an outsized impact on markets, as the hawkish nature of the Fed’s comments has shifted the likelihood towards fewer or potentially no further reductions next year.
“Market pricing moved hawkishly and towards our view of just one further 25 bps cut outlined in our team’s 2025 outlook,” analysts from Macquarie said in a note.
Sterling near one-month low after weak retail sales
In Europe, traded largely flat at 1.2500, after falling on Thursday to a one-month low after Bank of England policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.
Data released earlier Friday showed that British rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, below the expected jump of 0.5%.
rose 0.2% higher to 1.0385, just off a one-month low, and still on track for a weekly drop of over 1% on the back of the dollar’s strength.
rose unexpectedly in November, increasing by 0.1% on the year, instead of the 0.3% decline predicted, while the business climate index in Germany’s retail sector fell slightly, the Ifo Institute said on Friday.
This year was very challenging for the retail sector and the overall economic environment is likely to remain difficult in 2025, “even though many retailers are hoping for an improvement in consumer sentiment,” said Ifo expert Patrick Hoeppner.
The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.
Yen helped by CPI data
In Asia, fell 0.4% to 156.74, as for November read slightly stronger than expected, strengthening the case for an eventual rate hike by the .
But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3050, hitting its highest level since November 2023.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.
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